binary solo said:
PS3 vs. 360 isn't even an example. The only reason 360 had a lead was because of the 1 year head start. PS3 outsold 360 nearly every year that both were on the market, which does not appear to be the case with PS4 vs Xb one. And finally that was a 2nd / 3rd competition, Wii still won the generation. So the situation is not comparable at all.
The only real examples are 360 vs Wii in USA and UK, and PS3 vs Wii in a handful of minor markets. And in the case of 360 vs. Wii it was because Wii sales died off rapidly. But on a global basis there are no examples of come from behind victories in the entire history of game consoles (i.e. taking #1 spot). At the 6 months after launch mark if one console has a clear lead then there is a high probability that console will win the generation. At least that's been the case over the last few generations.
People think Xb one can do a PS3. But 360 is only the 5th best selling console of all time, whereas PS2 was the best selling console of all time, by a huge margin. So the customer base for Xb one to work with is nothing like the customer base PS3 had to work with. OTOH Xb one may be headed for a PS3 like result in that it could be looking at about 50% of the sales of 360.
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I dont think you hit that 1year head start hard enough so let me. The only reason MS got the market share it did in US and UK was because of cheaper price and year jead start. Even if XB1 wins those territories by the same amount after the ps3 released there will be a 3m console swing in the US alone. I dont think they will win by the same amount either. In Europe there will be a 2.64m unit swing and we all know Ps4 will increase their market share there and Japan due to the headstart they are getting. Im not sure where MS is suppose to grab these lost consoles sales from to be able to pull ahead of the Ps4.
Now, with Ps4 being cheaper and already beating Xb1 out in its own strongest territories I can see a closer to 50/50 split instead of the 60/40 split between 360/ps3. That would be a 20m console swing.