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Forums - Sales - Why a 70% dominance of PS4 (PS2 like dominance) will be impossible

awesomeabe1998 on 02 March 2014
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well. I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019 without taking SSB4 AND MARIO KART 8 into account. Those two games will add about 5 mil in the long run. Then you have X and BAYO 2 that will add a million. Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.



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ICStats on 02 March 2014

Possible sooner than you think if Wii U becomes the new Dreamcast.

Overall though I don't think it's going to happen.



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KBG29 on 02 March 2014
awesomeabe1998 said:
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well. I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019 without taking SSB4 AND MARIO KART 8 into account. Those two games will add about 5 mil in the long run. Then you have X and BAYO 2 that will add a million. Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.

The way things look right now, I don't see WiiU on shelves after 2017. Nintendo will launch a new sytem and quickly discontinue production. After PS4 production picks up, and the sales gap between it and WiiU + XBO widens furthur, the minimal 3rd party support for WiiU will completely dry up. The WiiU is in a worse place than Gamecube ever was, and 2 or 3 Nintendo titles a year is not going to change that.



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ICStats on 02 March 2014
awesomeabe1998 said:
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well.

Sorry but you also have to be a huge fanboy to believe what you said.

At this point it's reasonable to take GC as a maximum (21 million lifetime), and Wii U would have to improve it's state objectively to get there.  GC was selling better than WIi U at this point, and had more support.

Subjectively I also see that Wii U has a negative image around it.  I have a Wii U, and when I talk about it even with people who liked the Wii they have nothing good to say about it, and a lot of doubt about the concept.

I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019
Wii U sold 3 million in it's worst year, so if it keeps selling at it's worst I don't know where you can get 35 mil from.  You mean by 2024?
Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.
Six more years of great system sellers?  So in total over 7 years?  What example can you give of Nintendo supporting it's console well for over 7 years?
With how Wii U is, it's likely to get only a couple more years support and a quick replacement.
*I'm not a crystal ball reader, this is just an objective analysis.


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Marks on 02 March 2014

I can see them getting over 50%, but 70% will be a challenge.

I could see it being like 60% PS4, 30% XB1, then the leftover table scraps to the Wii U



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BeElite on 02 March 2014
awesomeabe1998 said:
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well. I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019 without taking SSB4 AND MARIO KART 8 into account. Those two games will add about 5 mil in the long run. Then you have X and BAYO 2 that will add a million. Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.

Do you even own a wiiu? and as an owner i can safely say no way does it sniff anywhere near 50m.  20m right now would be an accomplishment for it. 

You havent a clue what any game will add, and given wiiu exclusives failure to move units its doubt full anything will help much.  X and B2 will add nothing at all, one is from a genere that cant sale a million and the other is a unwanted sequal.  None of its exclusives moved hardware, why would the few in the future ?  Right now wiiu is not in a fight to sale 40 50 million, its in a fight to survive on the marlet.

I doubt anyone here sees the wiiu out in the marlet for 6 years.



FlowerGirl on 03 March 2014
ipumpmygun said:
Sony during the PS2 reign, held the most market share when it came to exclusives, money to support 1st party and 3rd party games, and superior hardware.


You're right except on the last count. The PS2 was far from the best hardware. In fact it was the weakest among the big 3 not counting the Dreamcast.

michael_stutzer on 03 March 2014
awesomeabe1998 said:
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well. I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019 without taking SSB4 AND MARIO KART 8 into account. Those two games will add about 5 mil in the long run. Then you have X and BAYO 2 that will add a million. Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.

You can call me what you want, it won't change the fact that Wii U is trailing way behind Gamecube which sold something like 22 million. I didn't even consider the fact it will have a short lifecycle, other posts reminded me of it. Wii U didn't have competition for the first year either, it will be much more difficult from now on.



awesomeabe1998 on 03 March 2014
ICStats said:
awesomeabe1998 said:
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well.

Sorry but you also have to be a huge fanboy to believe what you said.

At this point it's reasonable to take GC as a maximum (21 million lifetime), and Wii U would have to improve it's state objectively to get there.  GC was selling better than WIi U at this point, and had more support.

Subjectively I also see that Wii U has a negative image around it.  I have a Wii U, and when I talk about it even with people who liked the Wii they have nothing good to say about it, and a lot of doubt about the concept.

I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019
Wii U sold 3 million in it's worst year, so if it keeps selling at it's worst I don't know where you can get 35 mil from.  You mean by 2024?
Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.
Six more years of great system sellers?  So in total over 7 years?  What example can you give of Nintendo supporting it's console well for over 7 years?
With how Wii U is, it's likely to get only a couple more years support and a quick replacement.
*I'm not a crystal ball reader, this is just an objective analysis.


It did not do 3 million in its worst year. It was like 4.5 million. Multiply 4.5 by 7 and it will still be over 30 million. The reason behind Nintendo supporting the Wii U for another six years is that they have games yet to be released that will come out in late 2015 and early 2016. So it will last another 2 years. If Nintendo supported the GC for around 6 years then it will support the Wii U. Oh and about the GC selling more than Wii U at this point, It had some of the best games of all time and it still did not sell as expected. If Wii U gets to around 12 million this year then it will not be discontinued. Also, you do know that it takes years to make a finished console. Around 5 years. So that gives Wii U 4 more years without being considered of being discontinued.



ICStats on 03 March 2014
awesomeabe1998 said:
ICStats said:
awesomeabe1998 said:
michael_stutzer said:
Wii U won't reach 30 million. It will be lucky to sell 20 million and even that is very unlikely. 70% is also unlikely but around 60% is quite possible. I am not saying it would definitely happen, but it is far from impossible.


Ok Michael Pachter. Your post became so irrelevent after the first sentence. It showed how much of a fanboy you may be. The Wii U will sell 20 mil easy and maybe 50 mil as well.

Sorry but you also have to be a huge fanboy to believe what you said.

At this point it's reasonable to take GC as a maximum (21 million lifetime), and Wii U would have to improve it's state objectively to get there.  GC was selling better than WIi U at this point, and had more support.

Subjectively I also see that Wii U has a negative image around it.  I have a Wii U, and when I talk about it even with people who liked the Wii they have nothing good to say about it, and a lot of doubt about the concept.

I actually have some reason to my post. If Wii U has almost as bad years as its first then it would sell at least 35 mil by 2019
Wii U sold 3 million in it's worst year, so if it keeps selling at it's worst I don't know where you can get 35 mil from.  You mean by 2024?
Then you have 6 more years of great system sellers that will add around 10 mil. That comes up to 50 mil and that is if the Wii U sells horribly.
Six more years of great system sellers?  So in total over 7 years?  What example can you give of Nintendo supporting it's console well for over 7 years?
With how Wii U is, it's likely to get only a couple more years support and a quick replacement.
*I'm not a crystal ball reader, this is just an objective analysis.


It did not do 3 million in its worst year. It was like 4.5 million. Multiply 4.5 by 7 and it will still be over 30 million. The reason behind Nintendo supporting the Wii U for another six years is that they have games yet to be released that will come out in late 2015 and early 2016. So it will last another 2 years. If Nintendo supported the GC for around 6 years then it will support the Wii U. Oh and about the GC selling more than Wii U at this point, It had some of the best games of all time and it still did not sell as expected. If Wii U gets to around 12 million this year then it will not be discontinued. Also, you do know that it takes years to make a finished console. Around 5 years. So that gives Wii U 4 more years without being considered of being discontinued.

"It did not do 3 million in its worst year. It was like 4.5 million. Multiply 4.5 by 7 and it will still be over 30 million."

Nintendo's latest Wii U projection is 2.8 Million for the fiscal year.  It has never been 4.5 million in any 1 year period.

"The reason behind Nintendo supporting the Wii U for another six years is that they have games yet to be released that will come out in late 2015 and early 2016. So it will last another 2 years."

2 years =/= 6 years

If you keep rounding up and padding numbers I doubt you're going to be happy with the actual results.



My 8th gen collection