Assuming Nintendo keeps releasing a new console every 5-6 years, I would also say that it will end up below 20m.

IMO Nintendo has only 2 more chances to really turn things around.
1) Mario Kart 8
Didn't help the GC, but due to the popularity of MKWii it might convince a lot of them to buy the console.

2) Wii Sports 2 (or 3 if you count Resort as 2) or similar casual game
Something to attract the casual crowd. Wii Fit U didn't help, Just Dance 4/2014 didn't either and a simple sequel of Wii Sports might as well be not enough. The chance of creating another hit like that is not very probable unfortunately.

I think the best thing for them is to take a risk with rebranding and New Ips and approaching the core market. They have enough money to sort out their 3rd party relations  with those who matter and steal a big 3rd party  developer. If in 2017 the PS4 is starting to look dated, they could sweep the market in the fall with a console ahead of its time. Mario + impressive AAA looking new IP +Superior  3rd party titles could be a winner for all but the COD and FIfa junkies. 

Nintendo's never had that combination. The N64 was 2-3 late to the market, had far too many dry spells and was far more expensive then its competitor. The Gamecube was a year late to the market and was poorly branded. Furthermore all the big 3rd party franchises bar resident Evil 4 were exclusive to playstation (FFX, GTA3, MSG2+3, Tekken tag, DMC). 

Keep on dreaming, slimebeast.

im getting 17-24 LT

id be shocked if it can reach 30m anything above 30M for its LT would be considered a comeback for me

I think it'll at least do 20m.

I don't understand why people think Nintendo is going to terminate the wii u in 3 years or so, if they make another console game development will only get more expensive which I don't think is a good idea for them in the long run

My prediction is if wii u Sells under 20 million they will either focus on hand helds or go 3rd party or possibly go mobile

I honestly don't think 15m maximum makes sense. However, it certainly looks like it could be 15m or under if Nintendo doesn't do anything about the situation, which I doubt. That's why I still stick to 20m+ for my LTD prediction.

As of year 2020, my WiiU sales estimate : 24.7 to 49.4 million



Please the more detailed post here:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1#

3rd party is not going to happen. "Focus" on handhelds would be the easiest retreat, since by 2016 or so they could get Wii U-like performance out of a handheld (given the lower output resolutions needed, they could get games that "look" the same even without needing the same actual power) and that would be the natural time to replace 3DS anyway. Then a year or two after *that* they can introduce a "brother" system to the handheld, one with full cross-compatibility on games (upping the resolution for TV display), and a focus on local multiplayer games as its unique SP (since online games can be easily done on the new handheld).

Then instead of having their handheld and console cannibalizing each other and splitting their development resources, they're focused basically on one platform with that simply has two "channels."

I am interested in seeing how Mario Kart 8 will perform and if it will give the Wii U a relevant boost.