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Forums - Nintendo - WiiU Lifetime Sales Minumum Estimate 16 million

fleischr on 28 February 2014
Cheebee said:
Title is wrong. 'LTD' means life to date, as in, sales up to this point. Should be 'lifetime', as in, total sales when the console stops selling eventually.


Corrected



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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Lonely_Dolphin on 28 February 2014
Mr Khan said:
Soundwave said:

Just for reference sake Nintendo had shipped just a hair under 10 million GameCubes at the equivalent same point in its lifespan (March 2003), Wii U will be under 6 million, so it's well behind the GameCube right now.

With its best software still ahead of it, again. It's the same awkward little fact there. GC was far more front-loaded and had its severe problems in legging it out.



Wii U already has plenty of software, none of which made a long term difference, so why would more do so now? After SM3DW + other games + Price cut + new models + advertising + holidays, after all of that failed to change the Wii U's trajectory, I can't believe anything else will, atleast nothing from the usual console cycle, a.k.a. more games, more price cuts, more remodels, etc.

Azhraell on 28 February 2014
Soundwave said:

Just for reference sake Nintendo had shipped just a hair under 10 million GameCubes at the equivalent same point in its lifespan (March 2003), Wii U will be under 6 million, so it's well behind the GameCube right now.

Wow, if that's true I'm overestimating Wii u. But well, Gamecube had better exclusive software in it's first years.



Soundwave on 28 February 2014
Einsam_Delphin said:
Mr Khan said:
Soundwave said:

Just for reference sake Nintendo had shipped just a hair under 10 million GameCubes at the equivalent same point in its lifespan (March 2003), Wii U will be under 6 million, so it's well behind the GameCube right now.

With its best software still ahead of it, again. It's the same awkward little fact there. GC was far more front-loaded and had its severe problems in legging it out.


Wii U already has plenty of software, none of which made a long term difference, so why would more do so now? After SM3DW + other games + Price cut + new models + advertising + holidays, after all of that failed to change the Wii U's trajectory, I can't believe anything else will, atleast nothing from the usual console cycle, a.k.a. more games, more price cuts, more remodels, etc.


I think Mario Kart 8 will provide an OK boost, but they'll probably go back into low sales again 1-2 months later. Bayonetta 2 and X and all these things that some people prop up are going to bomb. Mario Kart, much like the NSMB series IMO benefitted tremendously as being the "go to" games for Wii casuals to play outside of Wii Sports/Fit, without that audience, MK8 is no MKWii, just like NSMBU is no NSMB Wii. 

Nintendo will get their usual holiday bump this year, nothing extraordinary. 



Mr Khan on 28 February 2014
Soundwave said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Its only sold about 2/3rds the GC has and falling behind month after month. 16m MINIMUM? Okay, this thing could sell 14m if trend holds. In order to sell as much as the GC that means it needs to start outpacing it. The longer it falls behind the more unlikely it gets.A year and a half on the market to start selling is too late.


It almost certainly will not beat GameCube's 2003 ... even with Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros.

2003 was the GameCube's best holiday season, it even almost sold past the PS2 for a month or two if I recall. 

That was largely due to the $99.99 price cut, making GameCube an impulse buy for practically everyone.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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Max King of the Wild on 28 February 2014

Also for the people talking about the games, how has the 3D mario, zelda remake, DKC, Wii fit, ect ect worked out so far? The system is not attractive which Nintendo will not be able to fix. As for GC being front loaded, the wii U still has to face the GC sales from the price cut it recieved during the same holiday period.



Soundwave on 28 February 2014
Mr Khan said:
Soundwave said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Its only sold about 2/3rds the GC has and falling behind month after month. 16m MINIMUM? Okay, this thing could sell 14m if trend holds. In order to sell as much as the GC that means it needs to start outpacing it. The longer it falls behind the more unlikely it gets.A year and a half on the market to start selling is too late.


It almost certainly will not beat GameCube's 2003 ... even with Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros.

2003 was the GameCube's best holiday season, it even almost sold past the PS2 for a month or two if I recall. 

That was largely due to the $99.99 price cut, making GameCube an impulse buy for practically everyone.

Which goes to show really how limited the market for a Nintendo console can be without a motion control miracle. 

If the GameCube could barely get over 20 million and that's with a $99.99 price point for a good chunk of its life span ... the odds of the Wii U doing it are not looking good at all. 

"Practically everyone" is more like Nintendo couldn't give the system away. 



Lonely_Dolphin on 28 February 2014
Soundwave said:
Einsam_Delphin said:
Mr Khan said:
Soundwave said:

Just for reference sake Nintendo had shipped just a hair under 10 million GameCubes at the equivalent same point in its lifespan (March 2003), Wii U will be under 6 million, so it's well behind the GameCube right now.

With its best software still ahead of it, again. It's the same awkward little fact there. GC was far more front-loaded and had its severe problems in legging it out.


Wii U already has plenty of software, none of which made a long term difference, so why would more do so now? After SM3DW + other games + Price cut + new models + advertising + holidays, after all of that failed to change the Wii U's trajectory, I can't believe anything else will, atleast nothing from the usual console cycle, a.k.a. more games, more price cuts, more remodels, etc.


I think Mario Kart 8 will provide an OK boost, but they'll probably go back into low sales again 1-2 months later. Bayonetta 2 and X and all these things that some people prop up are going to bomb. Mario Kart, much like the NSMB series IMO benefitted tremendously as being the "go to" games for Wii casuals to play outside of Wii Sports/Fit, without that audience, MK8 is no MKWii, just like NSMBU is no NSMB Wii. 

Nintendo will get their usual holiday bump this year, nothing extraordinary. 



Yup pretty much! Also, since there's no way I'm going to win our bet, you can reap the rewards now if you want! :L

zippy on 28 February 2014

There is no written rule that states that Nintendo cant turn things around. We are speculating on things we know ARE coming (Mario Kart, Smash, possible price cut) ,but what about things we dont know about? maybe Nintendo can have a killer app waiting in the wings, maybe catch lightning in a bottle by using NFC capabilities with a popular toy range of its IPs. Maybe the Sonic Boom animated show could catch on with the kids, thus them pestering their parents to buy them a Wii U with the game over the holidays, maybe people will fancy a Wii U impulse buy when games like Bayonetta 2 or X come out, or maybe the Japanese go ga ga over hyrule warriors....every little thing could help.



Attoyou on 28 February 2014

35 million. No way they don't turn this thing around at least a little.

Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Zelda, Animal Crossing, New 3d Mario + big Price cut, New Model and a few money hats and the Wii U should roll out a little better the next couple years.



Atto Suggests...:

Book - Malazan Book of the Fallen series 

Game - Metro Last Light

TV - Deadwood

Music - Forest Swords