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Forums - Sony Discussion - My expectations for PS4 in Japan are not what you'd expect of me

I feel the exact same way, Japan has moved on from consoles and not even the PS4 can bring them back. Even the Wii only did middling numbers there last gen. I think the PS4 will replicate PS3 sales thanks to games like FFXV and KHIII but that's all.



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

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Turkish said:

 


Don't lynch me PSX Mafia but I will not be surprised if PS4 soon reaches levels between WiiU-PS3 around May or June. Just like the PSP was outselling Vita for some time. Lifetime sales for PS4: between 7-10 million.


I just need to make sure I'm understanding this correctly. You mean 7-10 million in Japan, right? 



justinian said:
MoHasanie said:
Japan's importance is declining since its population is decreasing and aging.

6,000 less babies in 2013 is a real disaster, I suppose. 0.02 percent decline. That's really going to effect the PS4, or even the PS5.

But yes, the Japanese people live a long time (I think over 25% of them are over 65). 

Get them gaming and everything will be alright. Years of support until they are 103years old.


Well an aging population is bad for console sales. Kids and teens play the most games. Old people don't play and middle aged people work. By 2050 they are predicting a 25% decline in population and 38% will be older than 65. 



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

7-10 million LTD for the PS4 are reasonable estimates. Like I said in other threads, the only way for PS4 to reach 15+ mil and possibly 20+ mil would be if it got, along with FF and KH, DQ and MH exclusive, starting with DQ ports and HD remakes this Fall-next Fall as well as the other big ones (Tales, RE, MGS, GT, etc) and if there was a renaissance of sorts on the JRPG scene (LoD, SO, Suikoden, BoF, and new, original IPs). Basically all of the JP industry would have to be behind this behemoth to make it happen. Thinking about it longer, 7-10 million might actually be a bit high for the PS4 in Japan given what we do know about the Japanese oriented games that are coming to the machine.



MoHasanie said:
justinian said:
MoHasanie said:
Japan's importance is declining since its population is decreasing and aging.

6,000 less babies in 2013 is a real disaster, I suppose. 0.02 percent decline. That's really going to effect the PS4, or even the PS5.

But yes, the Japanese people live a long time (I think over 25% of them are over 65). 

Get them gaming and everything will be alright. Years of support until they are 103years old.


Well an aging population is bad for console sales. Kids and teens play the most games. Old people don't play and middle aged people work. By 2050 they are predicting a 25% decline in population and 38% will be older than 65. 

Of course it is. You are right. But lets be realistic here. A 0.02 percent yearly decline ( even a 0.1 percent ) won't significantly change the Japanese gaming market for a long time. Console gaming as we know it will most likely be long gone by then. In 2050 I believe having a small population will be a very positive thing, but that's a totally different subject matter.



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See nothing wrong about OP, I've been saying so myself that no home console will sell 10 million or more in the 8th gen; the traditional Japanese market is crashing completely, even handhelds have taken a massive plunge, 3DS even nose-dived following a Fire Emblem game.

With this gen being shorter and Japanese showing less and less interest in traditional gaming and the entire industry continuing its hard turn towards Western-centric developer philosophies and creativity (or lack thereof), this is all but a given for this market in the (8th gen). Even the traditionally strong Japanese franchises are losing their hold due to this (MGS, FF, RE. among others).

The PS4 will work wonders in Europe and do very well in the US but the Japanese market is fast becoming irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, this was discussed a lot in here already back in 2009-2010 and has been long in the coming and it's hardly news at this point.

PS: Superlol at people calling out Turkish because he's cranky about One and Wii U getting beaten!



Your post actually explains the decision behind Wii U's weaker hardware.



I agree with Turkish. Japan is a complete wildcard right now.



Looks like you was agree!!!