You're counting the months wrong. Sep-May is 8 months, not 9.

Too hard to say until supply and demand level out.

I still expect to be able to find PS4s at retail (maybe not always, but they shouldn't be a rarity) by Q2, which is only a couple months from now.

Of course, they're still hard to find (I have personally yet to see one on shelves) even with the post launch software drought as far as retail games go.

Depending on how sales continue to pan out along with how quickly Sony engineers can reduce production costs, it's not unreasonable to think there could be a price cut in time for the holidays of this year although strategically, SCE would probably want to time the price cut at least a quarter AFTER the holidays to spur post holiday sales.

This is all running the assumption that hardware sales will have normalized within 2014. While I'm not going to make overly enthusiastic predictions (the kind that have people predicting a company will sell more hardware than it is physically capable of producing), there is always the chance that Sony continues to move every console they can produce at the current max production rates. They still have to launch in Japan.

And then there's the reactive game that responds to their chief competitor. MS is currently denying any plans to release a $399 SKU for obvious reasons. If they do a sneaky pete surprise price drop that has a significant effect on marketshare percentages, Sony might respond with a cut of their own prematurely. If an XB1 price cut has minimal impact on sales, Sony would probably be content to sit pretty on the current $399 MSRP for as long as possible by adding a larger HDD or possibly other added hardware features at the same price.

PS4 can remain $399 for 2 years.

Yeah, that's what I think, too. MS will have to react way earlier. But perhaps if MS gets really good sales with a price drop Sony will have to react in some way.

I would rather see a new hardware-revision with new case, don't like the current design (on both consoles).

You won't get a price drop until tsmc's 20nm process matures and Sony shrinks the APU, that's currently expected to occur at the end of the year/early next year. That will allow for reduced chip cost and power consumption, allowing smaller heatsinks and smaller psu, which will allow for a price drop. MS is in the same position because they are both losing a similar amount on hardware currently, the only difference being ms has the cash to afford a protracted hardware driven loss period if they feel they need to drive the cost down earlier.

I'm gonna take a stab in the dark and say 20-24 months. The current price seems to be resonating well with most people. I can see value bundles, though. Like perhaps a year from now it comes bundled with a voucher for 1year of PS+. Which is a lot of content if you look at it in that light.

Sony doesn't need a price drop until 2015 at the earliest. I think we'll see one during the holidays coupled with Gran Turismo 7.

More money to spend on games :)

ya holiday 2015 seems right.

Winter 2014. Not because I think it'll be then, but because I'm not getting one before then. Since I'll have waited that long, might just wait longer if a price drop hasn't hit yet.