I'll stick to my prediction anyway.

pfft, Smash Bros Wii U will outsell the PS4

simply genious.

That's a pretty safe prediction IMO. Uncharted 4 will probably have a much larger userbase to sell to over time and figures to be a long seller and also bundled with the PS4 at some point.

Smash may be bundled too, but that's on a much less popular platform that's likely to fizzle out after 15-20 million sold.

Also Smash being on 3DS I think will cause some fracturing of the Wii U version's sales.

...isn't that kinda given at this point? Given the circumstances Wii U is facing, its a pretty safe prediction

It's hard to say what kind of selling power ND's franchises have on a new platform though, they almost always come up with a new one for each generation and ride with it (Crash, Jak, Uncharted), we don't have any guarantees that the franchise will actually grow, especially if UC 4 launches fairly early on in the PS4's life, the sequels that release when the fanbase is established and the user base has grown are almost always more successful.

Then again; Smash is going to two platforms this time around. This is actually a really tough call, Smash on Gamecube sold over 7 million on a tiny installed base while UC 3 has sold about 6.2 million at this point on a vastly larger installed base.

OP: I'm not so sure this will happen, I think that UC 4 will sell at least 5 million lifetime but I'm not sure it'll be enough, even if the Wii U needs to share stage with the 3DS on this, and with the severe lack of 3rd party support, the 1st party is bound to get all the more love and traction. However, if there is an Uncharted 5, that should stand a fairly good chance at it.

You can't go by when the first released on previous hardware.  You have to look at how long ago the studio released its last title.  Naughty Dog put out The Last of Us just a few months ago.  No way in hell can they put out another major title in just 1 year.   There was 2 years of separation between the 3 Uncharted titles and that was without another major title like The Last of Us showing up in between them. 

We won't see Uncharted 4 until 2015 at the earliest.

I don't think is a safe bet like all say. Smash should sell no less than 6 millions, but we don't know if Uncharted will grow or not in PS4. So, it's too soon to secure anything.

Naughty Dog is 2 teams now. One team made Uncharted 2 and the Last of Us while the Uncharted 3 team I belive hasnt released anything since that game.

Ssb will edge it I think by end of this gen