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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Uncharted 4 will outsell Super Smash Bros WiiU

 

Which will sell more?

Uncharted 4 197 39.88%
 
Super Smash Bros WiiU 295 59.72%
 
Total:492
jamesmarkus87 on 01 February 2014

"Will Uncharted 4 outsell Halo 5?" I highly doubt it.
"Will Uncharted 4 outsell Super Smash Bros Wii U?" Probably

"Will The Last of Us 2 outsell Uncharted 4?" Most definitely.



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TheGoldenBoy on 01 February 2014

Uncharted 4 has a good chance of beating Super Smash Bro. Wii U. The addition of SSB on the 3DS should lower sales for the Wii U version and the fact that when Uncharted comes out it will have a much larger install base than SSB will have when it comes out on the Wii U, I can see UC4 beating SSB on the Wii U. But it won't beat the combined sales of the Wii U and 3DS versions



blackgoku09 on 01 February 2014

Yeah Imfamous second son will outsell mariokart8



Kane1389 on 01 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
Kane1389 said:
Mummelmann said:
It's hard to say what kind of selling power ND's franchises have on a new platform though, they almost always come up with a new one for each generation and ride with it (Crash, Jak, Uncharted), we don't have any guarantees that the franchise will actually grow, especially if UC 4 launches fairly early on in the PS4's life, the sequels that release when the fanbase is established and the user base has grown are almost always more successful.

Then again; Smash is going to two platforms this time around. This is actually a really tough call, Smash on Gamecube sold over 7 million on a tiny installed base while UC 3 has sold about 6.2 million at this point on a vastly larger installed base.

OP: I'm not so sure this will happen, I think that UC 4 will sell at least 5 million lifetime but I'm not sure it'll be enough, even if the Wii U needs to share stage with the 3DS on this, and with the severe lack of 3rd party support, the 1st party is bound to get all the more love and traction. However, if there is an Uncharted 5, that should stand a fairly good chance at it.


What? The series grew with each new installment.  Also, Halo 3 launched early in 360's life too, and it went on to be best selling Halo game.

As for GC sales, its not like GC users had aa big of a choice of quality games compared to PS3, especially 3rd party games. I mean UC3 went against MW3, BF3, Skyrim and AC:R


I'm not denying that the franchise grew with each installment, my point ties into the uncertain figures of seeing a ND franchise making the jump to another generation, since they almost always come up with a new IP for a new console/generation, which was the bit of the same sentence you bolded that got left out.

And, yes, it's true that GC owners had a very poor offering compared to PS3 owners and that UC3 went up against some giants (one RPG and two shooters though, AC:R is probably the most direct competition out of those) but we don't know the software landscape of the 8th gen yet, perhaps a new 3rd person shooter franchise will arise and become the new Gears or Uncharted, or perhaps the genre as a whole will take a dip in popularity, it's really hard to say. We can't automatically assume that the Uncharted series will continue to grow and that UC 4 will beat UC 3 by default.

That's what makes this a tough call; we don't really know much about either games' performance. One thing is for certain though: both Smash and UC 4 will sell very well and I will be surprised if either falls below the 5 million mark when all is said and done.


''Hardcore'' franchises that started to become popular during previous generations usually only grew in the next generations. See God of War as an example, where GOW3 is the best selling title in the series despite PS3 userbase being 2 times smaller compared to PS2.

There is absolutely no reason for UC4 not to become bigger than UC3 and given the sales of Wii U and PS4, I think it will outsell Smash Bros. on Wii U as well



Mummelmann on 01 February 2014
Kane1389 said:
Mummelmann said:
Kane1389 said:
Mummelmann said:
It's hard to say what kind of selling power ND's franchises have on a new platform though, they almost always come up with a new one for each generation and ride with it (Crash, Jak, Uncharted), we don't have any guarantees that the franchise will actually grow, especially if UC 4 launches fairly early on in the PS4's life, the sequels that release when the fanbase is established and the user base has grown are almost always more successful.

Then again; Smash is going to two platforms this time around. This is actually a really tough call, Smash on Gamecube sold over 7 million on a tiny installed base while UC 3 has sold about 6.2 million at this point on a vastly larger installed base.

OP: I'm not so sure this will happen, I think that UC 4 will sell at least 5 million lifetime but I'm not sure it'll be enough, even if the Wii U needs to share stage with the 3DS on this, and with the severe lack of 3rd party support, the 1st party is bound to get all the more love and traction. However, if there is an Uncharted 5, that should stand a fairly good chance at it.


What? The series grew with each new installment.  Also, Halo 3 launched early in 360's life too, and it went on to be best selling Halo game.

As for GC sales, its not like GC users had aa big of a choice of quality games compared to PS3, especially 3rd party games. I mean UC3 went against MW3, BF3, Skyrim and AC:R


I'm not denying that the franchise grew with each installment, my point ties into the uncertain figures of seeing a ND franchise making the jump to another generation, since they almost always come up with a new IP for a new console/generation, which was the bit of the same sentence you bolded that got left out.

And, yes, it's true that GC owners had a very poor offering compared to PS3 owners and that UC3 went up against some giants (one RPG and two shooters though, AC:R is probably the most direct competition out of those) but we don't know the software landscape of the 8th gen yet, perhaps a new 3rd person shooter franchise will arise and become the new Gears or Uncharted, or perhaps the genre as a whole will take a dip in popularity, it's really hard to say. We can't automatically assume that the Uncharted series will continue to grow and that UC 4 will beat UC 3 by default.

That's what makes this a tough call; we don't really know much about either games' performance. One thing is for certain though: both Smash and UC 4 will sell very well and I will be surprised if either falls below the 5 million mark when all is said and done.


''Hardcore'' franchises that started to become popular during previous generations usually only grew in the next generations. See God of War as an example, where GOW3 is the best selling title in the series despite PS3 userbase being 2 times smaller compared to PS2.

There is absolutely no reason for UC4 not to become bigger than UC3 and given the sales of Wii U and PS4, I think it will outsell Smash Bros. on Wii U as well

It's not quite that cut and dry though, one can't automatically assume that a franchise will keep growing into a new generation.

Need for Speed Underground, for instance, sold about 7.2 million copies on the PS2 but the best selling NFS on PS3 is sitting at about 2.6 million and the ones before sold even less.

Call of Duty seems to be declining and there is no reason to think that any future CoD title will ever sell over 14 million units on a single platform in the 8th generation. So far, the 8th gen versions are set to sell well below half of what the 7th gen will sell, perhaps even 1/3 when all is said and done. Not quite the same case since UC 4 will only be 8th gen, but still a fairly good illustration of what I'm trying to say here.

Gran Turismo 3 sold 15 million, GT 5 is not going to beat that, it will come fairly close though.

Final Fantasy X sold over 8 million on the PS2 while FFXIII sold about 5 million on PS3, and even adding the 2 million the 360 version sold, it still falls short. On top of that; FFVII on PS1 actually sold 1.7 million more than FFX, on a smaller installed base.

Tekken has gone from selling about 7.2 million on PS1 down to 4 million on PS2 and 2.6 million on PS3 (highest selling installment, not combined).

Medal of Honor: Frontline on PS2 sold over 6.8 million units and then Medal of Honor managed 2.7 million on the PS3.

Metal Gear Solid IV has sold less than both first ones, and they have also been re-released in HD versions and been available as Classics on PSN so they have moved quite a bit more than the registered retail.

Madden NFL on PS2 sold 5.2 million while the best selling 7th gen iteration sold about 2.8 million on the 360.

Resident Evil 5 is almost 1 million behind the RE 2 on PS1.

The best selling Ratchet & Clank game on PS3 is almost 900k behind the best selling on PS2.

And so forth and so on. You can't simply assume growth by default. Of course, you could say that; "but the installed base was much more evenly distributed in the 7th gen and there weren't as many exclusives", and that would be my entire point. The game has changed, game sales are distributed among two high software selling platforms now and even though UC is exclusive to the PS4, there are other 3rd person action and shooter games elsewhere or even on the same platform, titles compete with one another. You said as much yourself.

Now, I can't claim that UC 4 will sell less and there is precedent for growth of franchises between generations, such as God of War, but you can't categorically state that the UC franchise will grow either based on similar data showing the opposite between generations. If the UC series follows the same line of sales on PS4, it would be more likely for UC 5 or UC 6 to sell the most and provide actual growth over UC 3.



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Somini on 02 February 2014

Big chance it will.



Kane1389 on 02 February 2014
Mummelmann said:
Kane1389 said:
Mummelmann said:
Kane1389 said:
Mummelmann said:
It's hard to say what kind of selling power ND's franchises have on a new platform though, they almost always come up with a new one for each generation and ride with it (Crash, Jak, Uncharted), we don't have any guarantees that the franchise will actually grow, especially if UC 4 launches fairly early on in the PS4's life, the sequels that release when the fanbase is established and the user base has grown are almost always more successful.

Then again; Smash is going to two platforms this time around. This is actually a really tough call, Smash on Gamecube sold over 7 million on a tiny installed base while UC 3 has sold about 6.2 million at this point on a vastly larger installed base.

OP: I'm not so sure this will happen, I think that UC 4 will sell at least 5 million lifetime but I'm not sure it'll be enough, even if the Wii U needs to share stage with the 3DS on this, and with the severe lack of 3rd party support, the 1st party is bound to get all the more love and traction. However, if there is an Uncharted 5, that should stand a fairly good chance at it.


What? The series grew with each new installment.  Also, Halo 3 launched early in 360's life too, and it went on to be best selling Halo game.

As for GC sales, its not like GC users had aa big of a choice of quality games compared to PS3, especially 3rd party games. I mean UC3 went against MW3, BF3, Skyrim and AC:R


I'm not denying that the franchise grew with each installment, my point ties into the uncertain figures of seeing a ND franchise making the jump to another generation, since they almost always come up with a new IP for a new console/generation, which was the bit of the same sentence you bolded that got left out.

And, yes, it's true that GC owners had a very poor offering compared to PS3 owners and that UC3 went up against some giants (one RPG and two shooters though, AC:R is probably the most direct competition out of those) but we don't know the software landscape of the 8th gen yet, perhaps a new 3rd person shooter franchise will arise and become the new Gears or Uncharted, or perhaps the genre as a whole will take a dip in popularity, it's really hard to say. We can't automatically assume that the Uncharted series will continue to grow and that UC 4 will beat UC 3 by default.

That's what makes this a tough call; we don't really know much about either games' performance. One thing is for certain though: both Smash and UC 4 will sell very well and I will be surprised if either falls below the 5 million mark when all is said and done.


''Hardcore'' franchises that started to become popular during previous generations usually only grew in the next generations. See God of War as an example, where GOW3 is the best selling title in the series despite PS3 userbase being 2 times smaller compared to PS2.

There is absolutely no reason for UC4 not to become bigger than UC3 and given the sales of Wii U and PS4, I think it will outsell Smash Bros. on Wii U as well

It's not quite that cut and dry though, one can't automatically assume that a franchise will keep growing into a new generation.

Need for Speed Underground, for instance, sold about 7.2 million copies on the PS2 but the best selling NFS on PS3 is sitting at about 2.6 million and the ones before sold even less.

Call of Duty seems to be declining and there is no reason to think that any future CoD title will ever sell over 14 million units on a single platform in the 8th generation. So far, the 8th gen versions are set to sell well below half of what the 7th gen will sell, perhaps even 1/3 when all is said and done. Not quite the same case since UC 4 will only be 8th gen, but still a fairly good illustration of what I'm trying to say here.

Gran Turismo 3 sold 15 million, GT 5 is not going to beat that, it will come fairly close though.

Final Fantasy X sold over 8 million on the PS2 while FFXIII sold about 5 million on PS3, and even adding the 2 million the 360 version sold, it still falls short. On top of that; FFVII on PS1 actually sold 1.7 million more than FFX, on a smaller installed base.

Tekken has gone from selling about 7.2 million on PS1 down to 4 million on PS2 and 2.6 million on PS3 (highest selling installment, not combined).

Medal of Honor: Frontline on PS2 sold over 6.8 million units and then Medal of Honor managed 2.7 million on the PS3.

Metal Gear Solid IV has sold less than both first ones, and they have also been re-released in HD versions and been available as Classics on PSN so they have moved quite a bit more than the registered retail.

Madden NFL on PS2 sold 5.2 million while the best selling 7th gen iteration sold about 2.8 million on the 360.

Resident Evil 5 is almost 1 million behind the RE 2 on PS1.

The best selling Ratchet & Clank game on PS3 is almost 900k behind the best selling on PS2.

And so forth and so on. You can't simply assume growth by default. Of course, you could say that; "but the installed base was much more evenly distributed in the 7th gen and there weren't as many exclusives", and that would be my entire point. The game has changed, game sales are distributed among two high software selling platforms now and even though UC is exclusive to the PS4, there are other 3rd person action and shooter games elsewhere or even on the same platform, titles compete with one another. You said as much yourself.

Now, I can't claim that UC 4 will sell less and there is precedent for growth of franchises between generations, such as God of War, but you can't categorically state that the UC franchise will grow either based on similar data showing the opposite between generations. If the UC series follows the same line of sales on PS4, it would be more likely for UC 5 or UC 6 to sell the most and provide actual growth over UC 3.


Notice I said new ''core'' franchises, since GOW on PS2 was mostly core. Most game franchises you listed there were already ''mainstream'' old IPs that were already in decline since 5th/6th gen, not to mention lots of them were milked quite a lot (COD and madden for an example).  Uncharted franchise actually grew with each new installment (just like Halo until Reach) and first installment on next gen console became the best selling one. Im 100% sure UC4 will do the same and Im willing to bet you on it.

And just the fact that we are discussing the possibility of UC outselling SSB tells us at what poor state Nintendo is at the moment. If anyone asked if UC2 was gonna outsell SSB on Wii, they would get mocked to oblivion, but now its almost other way around