All numbers in millions as of the date of this thread.

Smash Series

Uncharted Series

What you should get from the above data is:

• SSB has a larger following within the respective company's fan base. (higher % ratio)
• SSB has increased its LTD at every iteration
• Uncharted has peaked/flatened out and not gained new users at each iteration

With that you can assume that Uncharted as a maximum sales potential of around 6m units. Not bad at all but a very good assumption.

However, even at very low console sales of the Gamecube, a level that Wii U is fully capable of reaching, SSB sold over 7m.

Additional facts to consider.

PS4 is selling at a much better rate than PS3 and its arguable that it will finish with a great LRD. However, if userbase size was all that was needed, then U3 would be greater than U2 vs nearly identical. Afterall, PS3 has enjoyed a solid rate of sales in its later years. So you can't guarantee that a 100m+ PS4 user base would have any significant increase in Uncharted series sales.

As mentioned above, alternatively the lower userbase Wii U will have can't guarantee it couldn't reach the 12m level of Wii. After all, GC sold 10m less than N64, yet GC's SSB title outsold its predecessor by over 50%.

There is the issue with SSB4 being on two Nintendo consoles this time around. Granted they are not identical games. 3DS version will not have all of the same features and definitely worse graphics. Graphics in this case will have an impact as SSB is clearly a more "core" oriented title. Additionally, the Wii U's online structure is better fitting a fighting game and that will be a big seller for this title.

This is actually a pretty close comparison of premier first party titles. In the end however, I think SSB4 will outsell U4 even when only considering Wii U sales purely from the point of view that it greatly increases its userbase with every iteration. On Wii U alone it will be less than Wii, but combined with 3DS it will be greater.

Superchunk guestimate:
SSB4 - Wii U = 8m
Uncharted 4 = 6.5m

I don't think it's fair to say Uncharted has peaked at 6m, the third entry is still selling and will likely end up over 7m when all is said and done. Hell it's probably over 7m now if we factor in digital sales. Golden Abyss didn't do great, but it's on the Vita. Can't expect much from that handheld. I could easily see Uncharted 4 grow the franchise especially since it's going to be one of the first premiere exclusives on the PS4. 

WiiU install base won't suddenly gain say like 2-3 millions until SSB is released and the game won't sell at 90-100% attach ratio, it's ridiculous and irrational. At best it will sell 3-4M copies.

Uncharted is a different story because it won't be released any time soon and the install base will be much larger than WiiUs, if the scenario doesn't change until then.

3DS smash will beat uncharted probably but Wii U smash will underperform big time compared to brawl

Naughty Dog split into two teams after Uncharted 2. One worked on Uncharted 3 and the other worked on The Last of Us. Even if the TLOU team pulled some members from the other team to help them out I'm sure the majority of them have been working on Uncharted 4. Besides, Sony needs a new Uncharted this holiday to compete with Smash Bros and the Halo 2 remake. The Order 1886 won't cut it. 

Uh no? At least explain your reasoning if you think my prediction is a joke. 

You have to factor in that Smash games are evergreen titles so SSB will sell for the whole lifetime of the Wii U. 3 to 4 million is a very very low prediction for it.

While its true U4 could grow the base, SSB already has that large base and GC proves it can still on a shrinking console.

We're talking lifetime sales here, not day one. Wii U won't stop selling this year and neither will SSB4.

SSB will have a higher attach rate but Uncharted will outsell it because the install base for PS4 is going to insane.