Yes, possibly this year even.


Will PS4 total sales ever be more than that of Xbox One? | |||
| Yes | 210 | 72.92% | |
| No | 78 | 27.08% | |
| Total: | 288 | ||
FlamingWeazel said:
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sorry, reversed may have been the wrong word.
right now 4.2/3 = 1.4. in the short term i see that 1.4 increasing (possibly all the way to 2.x) as pent up ps4 demand and sheer number of territories should mean ps4 outsells xbone by quite a lot these next couple of months. ..but in the longer term when xbone is availible on a more world wide basis i see that falling back down into the 1.x region again.
Not double but I can definitely see a 50%-ish sales advantage for PS4.
Xbone One has still all the AAA multiplats, some great (real not timed) exclusives games like Halo, Forza or Gears of wars and will still be the shooter box for many US/UK gamers.
And more importantly, that's Microsoft we are talking about. They can buy many more exclusives and massively cut the X1 price. Don't underestimate them. This can only be good for gamers.
EDIT: just noticed that 4.2 / 2.8 gives exactly 1.5. So maybe Sony already has a 50% sales advantage to Microsoft. If the rumor is true of course.
Possibly but skip all this "rumour that X1 has sold only 2.8mn". You have official number, go by them and don´t mix one company´s official numbers with another company´s rumoured numbers.
| kupomogli said: With the announcement of PS4 sell through as 4.2 million and the rumored announcement of the Xbox One only 2.8 or 2.9 million, do you think at some point in its life without counting the first week that PS4 sales will double that of the Xbox One? |
Now here is the most conservative estimate for what's going to happen.
- The ratio in Europe and the rest of the world will stay at current levels or improve even more in favor of Playstation 1 to 3-4.
- The ratio in US will improve in favor of PS4, once the supply issues are ironed out and the relative price insensitive (first adopter) are out of the picture.
- The ratio in Japan will only improve things more in favor of PS4.
Let's just reveal a simple math, not necessarily very accurate but reasoably close...
XB1 sales will diminsh around 20% relative to PS4 in US. So a simple scaling will bring current XB1 sales from 1.84 to 1.44.
US makes up 62.8% of XB1 sales, so scale the previous number by 1/0.628, you get "2.29". This is the amount of consoles MS would sell to a more casual crowd with no PS4 supply issues. So basically, MS was able to move around half a million more consoles due to
a) Price insensitive early adopters
b) PS4 stock issues
On the PS4 side, the release in Japan will boost sales by around 10% (taken from the data at VGChartz). This means PS4 would sell around 4.2x1.10 = 4.62, in other words, it would move around 420 K consoles in Japan alone.
Please don't take these numbers as "hard values". The important thing here is their "relative values", from which I am trying to estimate the "cleaned up" sales data. Given all that, relative sales would be (ignoring XB1 sales in Japan)...
XB1 : 2.29
PS4 : 4.62
PS4 / XB1 ratio = 2.02
So "2" is the approximate conservative ratio you can expect in the future. Honestly, if it is "only" 2, this will be a success for MS after all that.
Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates
Regional Analysis (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 : 49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global => XB1 : 32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%
No unless all those wii owners in japan start buying ps4s

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Bet reminder: I bet with Tboned51 that Splatoon won't reach the 1 million shipped mark by the end of 2015. I win if he loses and I lose if I lost.
| RolStoppable said: Yes, easily. If Sony fails to accomplish that, then it will be just as pathetic as the 360 finishing in third place. |
360 came in third place because of their weakness, which is first party. They threw everything at Sony and Sony still prevailed over them even though they both lost to Nintendo. If Microsoft cannot beat Sony's first party this gen they might as well just buy out as many companies as humanly possible match Sony's amount of hits.
S.T.A.G.E. said:
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There is far to much potential to just lose money if you buy everything and everyone you can get.
What if Microsoft buys 20 studios and 19 turn from their known quality into current Rare?
Sony has it a lot easier when it comes to their studios and development.
This is mostly to their marketshare and their community which is used to the way Sony is pumping out games- Most people of the Sony Community WANT and NEED variety/new projects and Sony allows their studios to try a lot of things....a lot of new things that aren't mainstream cause they know the community will buy most of the time a reasonable amount of units to justify such a risky game.
Their studios don't have to hit a certain taste of a certain market cause they are strong everywhere.
Naughty Dog and co say they want to do this and that and they are allowed to do it.
And right now it will be pretty hard for Microsoft to change the core of their community.Every Console has their reputation and what they are linked with.
Their fans expect a certain direction and everything won't get accepted by the big share of people.
So it wouldn't change a lot if they buy 20 studios if they have to go all the same direction.You don't buy a Xbox for the same reason you buy a Playstation.
Multiplayer Online Shooter are the biggest thing there while everything else is bigger on the Playstation.
Microsoft will never be known and recognized for their 1st and 2nd Party as much as Sony is.They have their strong points somewhere else where probably no one can match them.A reason why they went for Titanfall cause this is an addition which fits perfectly to their style.
RolStoppable said:
Yeah... no. Sony's first party wasn't the difference-maker. It was a combination of Microsoft's inability to really break into markets that are not the USA or the UK (where the best-selling games were also third party games that were available on the 360), and what I believe to be an obligation to show results. Namely that Xbox can profit. So around mid-gen Microsoft stopped being aggressive and began to ride it out which showed in the 360 not receiving a price cut for a long time. The latter is why I think that Microsoft won't throw endless money at the Xbox One. They will of course do a few things, but there won't be huge amounts of funds going into the Xbox business. This is already Microsoft's third Xbox, so the days of buying market share by losing billions of dollar are over. |
Kinect kept the PS3 at bay for two years and then they couldn't stop the PS3's advances. In that time Sony had out produced Microsoft in games.
Microsoft is investing far more into the Xbox this gen than they did in the 360 generation. Last gen they paid for everyone elses support or funding games development so other publishers dont have to. This gen they are forming their own studios, continuing Kinect integration and throwing money at EA in a way they never have in any gen previously. Microsoft owns more studios than Sony now so there is no excuse for them to not be able to out produce Sony at all times.
Microsoft will throw money at the Xbox One as long as they need to. They will continue to do it as long as Sony does well. Everything they do is based upon their preparation and Sony's movement.
RolStoppable said:
Yeah... no. Sony's first party wasn't the difference-maker. It was a combination of Microsoft's inability to really break into markets that are not the USA or the UK (where the best-selling games were also third party games that were available on the 360), and what I believe to be an obligation to show results. Namely that Xbox can profit. So around mid-gen Microsoft stopped being aggressive and began to ride it out which showed in the 360 not receiving a price cut for a long time. The latter is why I think that Microsoft won't throw endless money at the Xbox One. They will of course do a few things, but there won't be huge amounts of funds going into the Xbox business. This is already Microsoft's third Xbox, so the days of buying market share by losing billions of dollar are over. |
The reason they could not break into those markets is because ms third party does not have games that appeal to anything other then americans.............That and Sony knows how to market, sell WW, MS is really just american focused.