Do you think PS4 sales will ever be double that of Xbox One?

[freedquaker]

kupomogli said:

With the announcement of PS4 sell through as 4.2 million and the rumored announcement of the Xbox One only 2.8 or 2.9 million, do you think at some point in its life without counting the first week that PS4 sales will double that of the Xbox One?

Now here is the most conservative estimate for what's going to happen.

- The ratio in Europe and the rest of the world will stay at current levels or improve even more in favor of Playstation 1 to 3-4.

- The ratio in US will improve in favor of PS4, once the supply issues are ironed out and the relative price insensitive (first adopter) are out of the picture.

- The ratio in Japan will only improve things more in favor of PS4.

Let's just reveal a simple math, not necessarily very accurate but reasoably close...

XB1 sales will diminsh around 20% relative to PS4 in US. So a simple scaling will bring current XB1 sales from 1.84 to 1.44.

US makes up 62.8% of XB1 sales, so scale the previous number by 1/0.628, you get "2.29". This is the amount of consoles MS would sell to a more casual crowd with no PS4 supply issues. So basically, MS was able to move around half a million more consoles due to

a) Price insensitive early adopters

b) PS4 stock issues

 

On the PS4 side, the release in Japan will boost sales by around 10% (taken from the data at VGChartz). This means PS4 would sell around 4.2x1.10 = 4.62, in other words, it would move around 420 K consoles in Japan alone.

Please don't take these numbers as "hard values". The important thing here is their "relative values", from which I am trying to estimate the "cleaned up" sales data. Given all that, relative sales would be (ignoring XB1 sales in Japan)...

XB1 : 2.29
PS4 : 4.62

PS4 / XB1 ratio = 2.02

So "2" is the approximate conservative ratio you can expect in the future. Honestly, if it is "only" 2, this will be a success for MS after all that.