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Forums - Sales - Sony: 4.2M, VGChartz: 4.1M

fordy on 09 January 2014
thismeintiel said:
fordy said:
Munkeh111 said:

NPD and VGC are the same, but the NPD has better sources to extrapolate from. The only real 100% accurate data is Sony's (and the others) shipped figures.

Anyway, 0.1m out is within the desired error. It's fine


You're right. NPD and VGC strive for the same goal....so why introduce a totally irrelevant figure into the mix?

The only thing that the shipped figure does is tell you your hard ceiling figure. It has some small relevance to retail sales, but there is potential for a massive buffer between the two...

Shipped tells you much more than that.  You see, only on rare occasions can a manufactorer stuff the channel.  Usually when a console first launches or when there is a new model and/or large price cut.  Other than that, retailers are not just going to except excess stock to fill up their warehouses.  So, for example, if VGC charts shows that there are 3M+ PS3s sitting on shelves (as it did before we had a large adjustment in '13), its quite reasonable for people to conclude that the console is undertracked.  I believe the standard supply is estimated to be 500K-1.5M, depending on the time of the year.

@ OP

A 100K difference isn't that big of a deal.  It's well within the 10% tolerance this site tries to mantain.

 

Yet those same people had to shut their mouths when NPDs postings found similar, or only a slight margin of error...

There's a difference between initial expectations of selling and actual sales. Since this was 2007 the first full year of the PS3, I'd say a LOT of stores were burned in terms of buying large stock only to not be able to move it. In that regard, a 3M buffer doesn't sound quite so unbelievable, then....



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Lawlight on 09 January 2014

This is what happened - VGChartz was off but when Sony made their announcement, they couldn't just make it 4.2M exactly. It would have be too obvious. So they made it 4.1M.



Max King of the Wild on 09 January 2014
KHlover said:
I'm actually impressed that VGChartz estimate is only 100k "off". That's extremely good.


that is after adjustmrnts. before they were 14% off which isnt so good.



Viltgance on 09 January 2014

VGchartz never lies, Sony is trolling.



dsage01 on 09 January 2014

Instead of giving credz to VGC everyone is bashing it for being a 100k off? I'm surprised their this accurate!



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Aerys on 09 January 2014
HokageTenshi said:

maybe the 100k is faulty return units... 

b.t.w. why you didn't ask M$: 3M, VGChartz: 2.9M... 


Because Microsoft  gave 2013 sales, so 3 days more, that makes sense.





Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

thismeintiel on 09 January 2014
fordy said:
thismeintiel said:
fordy said:


You're right. NPD and VGC strive for the same goal....so why introduce a totally irrelevant figure into the mix?

The only thing that the shipped figure does is tell you your hard ceiling figure. It has some small relevance to retail sales, but there is potential for a massive buffer between the two...

Shipped tells you much more than that.  You see, only on rare occasions can a manufactorer stuff the channel.  Usually when a console first launches or when there is a new model and/or large price cut.  Other than that, retailers are not just going to except excess stock to fill up their warehouses.  So, for example, if VGC charts shows that there are 3M+ PS3s sitting on shelves (as it did before we had a large adjustment in '13), its quite reasonable for people to conclude that the console is undertracked.  I believe the standard supply is estimated to be 500K-1.5M, depending on the time of the year.

@ OP

A 100K difference isn't that big of a deal.  It's well within the 10% tolerance this site tries to mantain.

 

Yet those same people had to shut their mouths when NPDs postings found similar, or only a slight margin of error...

There's a difference between initial expectations of selling and actual sales. Since this was 2007 the first full year of the PS3, I'd say a LOT of stores were burned in terms of buying large stock only to not be able to move it. In that regard, a 3M buffer doesn't sound quite so unbelievable, then....

At launch, maybe.  In 2007, possible for the first quarter or so, but after that retailers will adjust how many they order.  In 2013, hell no.  By then, retailers know what to expect from the consoles, so know how much to order.  In truth, I think the only one we have seen stuff the channels, and therefore put a greater supply in stores and warehouses than there needs to be, was MS early in the gen.  They purposefully put extra stock so they would be the first to reach 10M, and therefore "win."



 

fordy on 10 January 2014
thismeintiel said:

At launch, maybe.  In 2007, possible for the first quarter or so, but after that retailers will adjust how many they order.  In 2013, hell no.  By then, retailers know what to expect from the consoles, so know how much to order.  In truth, I think the only one we have seen stuff the channels, and therefore put a greater supply in stores and warehouses than there needs to be, was MS early in the gen.  They purposefully put extra stock so they would be the first to reach 10M, and therefore "win."


Before you embarass yourself further, I urge you to backtrack through this thread , right to where I was mentioning confusion amongst new members and VGC figures in...you guess it.....2007. 

Who the hell is talking about 2013? I take it you pulled that year out of your arse for some reason, right?

This is gold....they "purposefully put extra stock...." ......yeah? Where, exactly? Care to complete that first part of the sentence? Did Microsoft rock up at stores with boxes of consoles and force them to take them? You do realised that "shipped" figures only apply once the consoles have been.....shipped, right? If there's a discrepancy between the shipped and sold figures, then you might be on to something, but if Microsoft is packing their own warehouses with stock (ie not "shipped"), then you're only clutching at straws...

To add to this, I never saw many misleading figures investors to cover up the fact that they fucked up (see: Shipped numbers on investment reports, "Total PlayStation family shipped" figures to make the dismal PS3 figures look better). It's easy to tell when a fuckup is being sugarcoated in the business/investment world.



Ponyless on 10 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
KHlover said:
I'm actually impressed that VGChartz estimate is only 100k "off". That's extremely good.


that is after adjustmrnts. before they were 14% off which isnt so good.


Uhh before it was 3.9m

(3.9-4.2)/4.2 x 100= 7.1%, which is under their goal of 10%.



thismeintiel on 10 January 2014
fordy said:
thismeintiel said:

At launch, maybe.  In 2007, possible for the first quarter or so, but after that retailers will adjust how many they order.  In 2013, hell no.  By then, retailers know what to expect from the consoles, so know how much to order.  In truth, I think the only one we have seen stuff the channels, and therefore put a greater supply in stores and warehouses than there needs to be, was MS early in the gen.  They purposefully put extra stock so they would be the first to reach 10M, and therefore "win."


Before you embarass yourself further, I urge you to backtrack through this thread , right to where I was mentioning confusion amongst new members and VGC figures in...you guess it.....2007. 

Who the hell is talking about 2013? I take it you pulled that year out of your arse for some reason, right?

This is gold....they "purposefully put extra stock...." ......yeah? Where, exactly? Care to complete that first part of the sentence? Did Microsoft rock up at stores with boxes of consoles and force them to take them? You do realised that "shipped" figures only apply once the consoles have been.....shipped, right? If there's a discrepancy between the shipped and sold figures, then you might be on to something, but if Microsoft is packing their own warehouses with stock (ie not "shipped"), then you're only clutching at straws...

To add to this, I never saw many misleading figures investors to cover up the fact that they fucked up (see: Shipped numbers on investment reports, "Total PlayStation family shipped" figures to make the dismal PS3 figures look better). It's easy to tell when a fuckup is being sugarcoated in the business/investment world.

I was talking about 2013 in my original reply to you, do keep up.  Not, sure why you're dwelling on '07 so much.  You suggest Sony got 3M more than what they were selling, yet act as if same could never have happened to MS.  Bias much?

As for the channel stuffing, I just know it has been repeated on here quite a bit that early on MS did so to reach their arbritrary "gen winning" 10M figure, first.  The members who have said so (reason given was sales numbers being greatly below shipped) have been on her longer than I have been, nor have I seen them be challenged on this, so I figure it must be true.

Anyway, this is completely off topic to the thread about 4.2M+ PS4s being sold, so I will end this here.