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thismeintiel said:
fordy said:
Munkeh111 said:

NPD and VGC are the same, but the NPD has better sources to extrapolate from. The only real 100% accurate data is Sony's (and the others) shipped figures.

Anyway, 0.1m out is within the desired error. It's fine


You're right. NPD and VGC strive for the same goal....so why introduce a totally irrelevant figure into the mix?

The only thing that the shipped figure does is tell you your hard ceiling figure. It has some small relevance to retail sales, but there is potential for a massive buffer between the two...

Shipped tells you much more than that.  You see, only on rare occasions can a manufactorer stuff the channel.  Usually when a console first launches or when there is a new model and/or large price cut.  Other than that, retailers are not just going to except excess stock to fill up their warehouses.  So, for example, if VGC charts shows that there are 3M+ PS3s sitting on shelves (as it did before we had a large adjustment in '13), its quite reasonable for people to conclude that the console is undertracked.  I believe the standard supply is estimated to be 500K-1.5M, depending on the time of the year.

@ OP

A 100K difference isn't that big of a deal.  It's well within the 10% tolerance this site tries to mantain.

 

Yet those same people had to shut their mouths when NPDs postings found similar, or only a slight margin of error...

There's a difference between initial expectations of selling and actual sales. Since this was 2007 the first full year of the PS3, I'd say a LOT of stores were burned in terms of buying large stock only to not be able to move it. In that regard, a 3M buffer doesn't sound quite so unbelievable, then....