By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Will Probably Outsell Wii U by Spring Globally - Michael Pachter

Rafux said:
Zero999 said:

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.

how much did mario kart sell on wii, ds and 3ds, again?



Around the Network
Zero999 said:
Rafux said:
Zero999 said:

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.

how much did mario kart sell on wii, ds and 3ds, again?

Look at the Wii, DS, and 3DS hardware sales. Now look at the WiiU's hardware sales. There you go. 



Sigs are dumb. And so are you!

Zero999 said:
Rafux said:
Zero999 said:

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.

how much did mario kart sell on wii, ds and 3ds, again?

How much did those consoles sell compared to the Gamecube again? 



Zero999 said:
Rafux said:
Zero999 said:

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.

how much did mario kart sell on wii, ds and 3ds, again?

Not enough to move the Wii U hardware obviously



I couldnt give a shit when PS4 passes Wii U , im just glad Wii U is selling better and hopefully has a better 2014. I just hope Wii U has a better first half of the year than it did the last.



Around the Network
Zero999 said:
Rafux said:
Zero999 said:

yeah, mario kart and smash bros popularity was so much higher back then, OH WAIT.

Mario Kart has been popular since the 90s and Smash Brothers Melee sold 7 million copies on a 21 million user base it was popular already.

how much did mario kart sell on wii, ds and 3ds, again?


Oh right I forgot Nintendo consoles are Mario Kart machines now and there are millions and millions of people waiting for MK to be released.

Come on we all know its going to give the Wii U a great boost in sales (all first party will) but it can't carry it all gen.



S.T.A.G.E. said:
Hamister said:
I'm quite certain PS4 will overtake WiiU at some point, however I do believe Pachter is overly optimistic. I actually believe we will se a dramatic drop in PS4 sales in the US and Europe around February/March and onward well into Q3 2014, as we saw with WiiU in 2013. I base this belief on the lack of high profile software for PS4 in the spring and summer.

And unfortunately the Japanese release won't be enough to pick up that drop. Likewise we will see a dramatic drop in sales in Japan in early summer and that drop will also last well into Q3 2014.

WiiU will also see a drop in sales, but that drop will be more modest as Super Mario 3D World will have legs long enough to carry hardware sales in Q1 and parts of Q2.

I predict weekly worldwide WiiU sales of aprox. 75 000-100 000 systems all spring and summer, based on the assumption that Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q1/Q2. I'm quite certain such sales will be enough for WiiU to keep its lead at least until September/October 2014.

Key to all of this is of course if Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q2 (the earlier the better). Otherwise WiiU will have yet another disastrous first half year, and by then it's highly doubtful they can pick up momentum again. In other words; this spring will make or break WiiU.


Japan...will help Sony get over the five million mark before second quarter even starts. Theres also a Gamestop backup on demand WW until February or March. Sony will definitely pass Nintendo by the end of the first quarter.


I don't doubt PS4 will pass WiiU this year. But for your bold prediction to come true, WiiU will have to sell close to zero units in Q1. I simply can't see that happening. If I'm not mistaken Sony's own predictions suggests PS4 will stand at 5-5,5 million by the end of Q1, that's a figure WiiU will most likely reach by the end of January or early February even with conservative estimates.

I'd say with the most optimistic estimates for PS4 and the most pessimistic estimates for WiiU, PS4 still won't pass WiiU until May at the absolute earliest. A more realistic time frame is July. However, if Mario Kart 8 will be released in early Q2 I think we will have a somewhat different scenario, with PS4 passing WiiU in September/October at the earliest.



Max King of the Wild said:
thismeintiel said:
I think the majority of doubt in this thread comes from younger Nintendo fans who think that just because the Wii was so popular last gen, than surely the Wii U will eventually catch fire soon. Of course, one only has to go back a gen prior to see Nintendo getting completely crushed by the competition. And the gen prior to that, it happened, too. The N64 and the Gamecube had ALL the games people are saying will help the Wii U ignite in sales, but it didn't help them.

Nor will they help the Wii U. Sure, it will give it a nice boost for a week or two, but that's it. It doesn't help that the Wii U is getting poor 3rd party support and Nintendo keeps delaying their games, leading to droughts for months. I mean people were saying 3D Mario+holiday sales = domination, but that didn't happen. Only thing noticeable was a good boost in Japan, which will still end in a few weeks. You see, you need more than games to appeal to gamers. The console itself must interest people, as well. Unfortunately, not many are interested in the Wii U.

I agree. What do you think about dietsoap saying Nintendo will dro wii u's price to $200

Highly unlikely. The lowest they'll drop it is $50, to $249, which is the price the Wii launched at. Any lower and  they'll start losing a lot of money.

Of course, it won't help too much, as price isn't the Wii U's problem. It's already $100 cheaper than the nearest competition, and only $50 more than the Wii was. No, like I said above, the Wii U' s problem is that it isn't as appealing to the core gamers that are still around after many of the casuals left. Though, it will probably see some success in Japan.



Hamister said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Hamister said:
I'm quite certain PS4 will overtake WiiU at some point, however I do believe Pachter is overly optimistic. I actually believe we will se a dramatic drop in PS4 sales in the US and Europe around February/March and onward well into Q3 2014, as we saw with WiiU in 2013. I base this belief on the lack of high profile software for PS4 in the spring and summer.

And unfortunately the Japanese release won't be enough to pick up that drop. Likewise we will see a dramatic drop in sales in Japan in early summer and that drop will also last well into Q3 2014.

WiiU will also see a drop in sales, but that drop will be more modest as Super Mario 3D World will have legs long enough to carry hardware sales in Q1 and parts of Q2.

I predict weekly worldwide WiiU sales of aprox. 75 000-100 000 systems all spring and summer, based on the assumption that Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q1/Q2. I'm quite certain such sales will be enough for WiiU to keep its lead at least until September/October 2014.

Key to all of this is of course if Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q2 (the earlier the better). Otherwise WiiU will have yet another disastrous first half year, and by then it's highly doubtful they can pick up momentum again. In other words; this spring will make or break WiiU.


Japan...will help Sony get over the five million mark before second quarter even starts. Theres also a Gamestop backup on demand WW until February or March. Sony will definitely pass Nintendo by the end of the first quarter.


I don't doubt PS4 will pass WiiU this year. But for your bold prediction to come true, WiiU will have to sell close to zero units in Q1. I simply can't see that happening. If I'm not mistaken Sony's own predictions suggests PS4 will stand at 5-5,5 million by the end of Q1, that's a figure WiiU will most likely reach by the end of January or early February even with conservative estimates.

I'd say with the most optimistic estimates for PS4 and the most pessimistic estimates for WiiU, PS4 still won't pass WiiU until May at the absolute earliest. A more realistic time frame is July. However, if Mario Kart 8 will be released in early Q2 I think we will have a somewhat different scenario, with PS4 passing WiiU in September/October at the earliest.


You obviously didn't read what I wrote. The PS4 is already most likely already over 3.5 million in sales now and PS4's still have backed up demand WW especially at Gamestop in two months time. By the time that demand is finished we're looking at 5.5-6 million which would be around the beginning or end of march. The Wii U will go into low season as it usually does in january and it will not be able to combat the with the PS4 once it launches in Japan in February further bolstering my point that an extra million will solely come from Japan in the first week of launch. There will be no millions coming to Nintendo within such a short period of time. The demand is not as high as the PS4's not at its launch and it will not continue to have as much. 

The Xbox One is the console that fits the description of the scenario you are creating. The Xbox One will surpass the Wii U by the beginning or end of Summer. 

Lets make a wager.

If I win and the PS4 passes the Wii U by the end of first quarter I you have to put on your sig that my theory right.

If your theory is true, then i will put up a sig saying that what you are saying is true.

As I said before in my earlier posts, I don't know whether it is a blessing or a curse that I have a alarmingly close prediction to Michael Pachter about the Wii U's lifetime sales and window of being passed by the PS4. The PS4 is going to pass the Wii U with ease. A years worth of the Wii U's sales overthrown in four to five months.



PS4 will outsell it June-September, and X1 sometime next year.