Hamister said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Hamister said:
I'm quite certain PS4 will overtake WiiU at some point, however I do believe Pachter is overly optimistic. I actually believe we will se a dramatic drop in PS4 sales in the US and Europe around February/March and onward well into Q3 2014, as we saw with WiiU in 2013. I base this belief on the lack of high profile software for PS4 in the spring and summer.
And unfortunately the Japanese release won't be enough to pick up that drop. Likewise we will see a dramatic drop in sales in Japan in early summer and that drop will also last well into Q3 2014.
WiiU will also see a drop in sales, but that drop will be more modest as Super Mario 3D World will have legs long enough to carry hardware sales in Q1 and parts of Q2.
I predict weekly worldwide WiiU sales of aprox. 75 000-100 000 systems all spring and summer, based on the assumption that Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q1/Q2. I'm quite certain such sales will be enough for WiiU to keep its lead at least until September/October 2014.
Key to all of this is of course if Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q2 (the earlier the better). Otherwise WiiU will have yet another disastrous first half year, and by then it's highly doubtful they can pick up momentum again. In other words; this spring will make or break WiiU.
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Japan...will help Sony get over the five million mark before second quarter even starts. Theres also a Gamestop backup on demand WW until February or March. Sony will definitely pass Nintendo by the end of the first quarter.
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I don't doubt PS4 will pass WiiU this year. But for your bold prediction to come true, WiiU will have to sell close to zero units in Q1. I simply can't see that happening. If I'm not mistaken Sony's own predictions suggests PS4 will stand at 5-5,5 million by the end of Q1, that's a figure WiiU will most likely reach by the end of January or early February even with conservative estimates.
I'd say with the most optimistic estimates for PS4 and the most pessimistic estimates for WiiU, PS4 still won't pass WiiU until May at the absolute earliest. A more realistic time frame is July. However, if Mario Kart 8 will be released in early Q2 I think we will have a somewhat different scenario, with PS4 passing WiiU in September/October at the earliest.
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You obviously didn't read what I wrote. The PS4 is already most likely already over 3.5 million in sales now and PS4's still have backed up demand WW especially at Gamestop in two months time. By the time that demand is finished we're looking at 5.5-6 million which would be around the beginning or end of march. The Wii U will go into low season as it usually does in january and it will not be able to combat the with the PS4 once it launches in Japan in February further bolstering my point that an extra million will solely come from Japan in the first week of launch. There will be no millions coming to Nintendo within such a short period of time. The demand is not as high as the PS4's not at its launch and it will not continue to have as much.
The Xbox One is the console that fits the description of the scenario you are creating. The Xbox One will surpass the Wii U by the beginning or end of Summer.
Lets make a wager.
If I win and the PS4 passes the Wii U by the end of first quarter I you have to put on your sig that my theory right.
If your theory is true, then i will put up a sig saying that what you are saying is true.
As I said before in my earlier posts, I don't know whether it is a blessing or a curse that I have a alarmingly close prediction to Michael Pachter about the Wii U's lifetime sales and window of being passed by the PS4. The PS4 is going to pass the Wii U with ease. A years worth of the Wii U's sales overthrown in four to five months.
