S.T.A.G.E. said:
Hamister said:
I'm quite certain PS4 will overtake WiiU at some point, however I do believe Pachter is overly optimistic. I actually believe we will se a dramatic drop in PS4 sales in the US and Europe around February/March and onward well into Q3 2014, as we saw with WiiU in 2013. I base this belief on the lack of high profile software for PS4 in the spring and summer.
And unfortunately the Japanese release won't be enough to pick up that drop. Likewise we will see a dramatic drop in sales in Japan in early summer and that drop will also last well into Q3 2014.
WiiU will also see a drop in sales, but that drop will be more modest as Super Mario 3D World will have legs long enough to carry hardware sales in Q1 and parts of Q2.
I predict weekly worldwide WiiU sales of aprox. 75 000-100 000 systems all spring and summer, based on the assumption that Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze and Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q1/Q2. I'm quite certain such sales will be enough for WiiU to keep its lead at least until September/October 2014.
Key to all of this is of course if Mario Kart 8 will be released sometime in Q2 (the earlier the better). Otherwise WiiU will have yet another disastrous first half year, and by then it's highly doubtful they can pick up momentum again. In other words; this spring will make or break WiiU.
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Japan...will help Sony get over the five million mark before second quarter even starts. Theres also a Gamestop backup on demand WW until February or March. Sony will definitely pass Nintendo by the end of the first quarter.
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I don't doubt PS4 will pass WiiU this year. But for your bold prediction to come true, WiiU will have to sell close to zero units in Q1. I simply can't see that happening. If I'm not mistaken Sony's own predictions suggests PS4 will stand at 5-5,5 million by the end of Q1, that's a figure WiiU will most likely reach by the end of January or early February even with conservative estimates.
I'd say with the most optimistic estimates for PS4 and the most pessimistic estimates for WiiU, PS4 still won't pass WiiU until May at the absolute earliest. A more realistic time frame is July. However, if Mario Kart 8 will be released in early Q2 I think we will have a somewhat different scenario, with PS4 passing WiiU in September/October at the earliest.
