NPD will be fun.

You've got some valid points, even though I don't agree with you fully

1) The fan base of Wii U will be defined by the software available for the system. Super Mario 3D World is one of those defining games, and with Mario Kart, Super Smash Bros. and Donkey Kong Country down the road, it'll continue to fit the Wii U fan base like a glove well within 2014 and most likely beyond 2014.

2) Yes a true 3D Mario game will released someday, but it's doubtful it will see the light of day within the next 12 months. Meaning Super Mario 3D World will have virtually no competition from the Mario franchise for quite a while. Also, looking at sales for the true 3D Mario games (Super Mario 64, Super Mario Sunshine, Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario Galaxy 2) compared to the less complex main stream Mario games, it's doubtful a true 3D Mario game for Wii U will have such a major negative effect on future sales of Super Mario 3D World.

3) I agree that we have seen a slight saturation in the Mario franchise lately, and it could eventually be harmful if Nintendo don't play their cards right. As you point out there is a risk Nintendo are stretching the franchise slightly thin. But as long as they can maintain a "Mario quality", and bring us somewhat unique Mario experiences, we won't see any harm. Also remember that there is a difference between Mario spin off franchises and the Super Mario franchise. Nintendo was smart to drop the "Super" from all Mario related spin offs, which has saved the them from saturation since the mid 90's.

I maintain that IF WiiU manages to sell 18-20 million, Super Mario 3D World will reach greater sales than Super Mario Sunshine. The million dollar question is, will we see such hardware sales? :P

yes

Probably not, Sunshine launched when the Gamecube was hot and got a strong early base. If the Wii U ever takes off SM3DW will be too far in the rear view mirror.

All these people sayong sunshine is worse than 3d world..apples to oranges I say

I made a thread about this after the E3 reveal, claiming 3D World would fail to sell as much as Sunshine.

Now that 3D World has turned out better than I even imagined back then, I'm interested to see if I end up being right...

I just need to say something semantics related that has been irking me lately.

...3D World is NOT 2.5D. That is already a thing. 2.5D means 3D models in a 2D plane like a lot of modern platformers. We can't just reassign terms whenever we feel like it or things will get genuinely confusing.

3D World is a 3D game. Thats it. No decimals required. It uses some design ideas from 2D mario games and limits movement to 8 directions but this has absolutely no bearing on the genre. 3D World is a true 3D mario already. There are numerous syles of 3D mario games which may come later though...

1) You do have a point. I just see Wii U being more like the N64 in terms of audience. I thought 3D World wouldn't fit that style but after re-thinking it, it would.

2) Another good point. SMU won't be released anytime soon so it shouldn't kill it off too quickly. Plus, they will sell side by side. Yet, I still think the sales will be split a bit.

3) I disagree with this one. Mario has been releasing games like rabbit baby's. This will hurt sales of all Mario platformers to at least some extent. I don't have a Wii U yet but if I ever buy one I'll get 3D World. It looks great but I'm just not expecting huge sales.

sunshine wasnt loved by the nintendo crowed at start, now its a bit differente, everybody likes it after playing..

I'm sorry to hear that. I don't know official terms but will keep that in mind in the future. (seriously, not trying to be sarcastic)