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Hamister on 31 December 2013
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Dream_While_Awake said:
I don't think it will.

Wii U will outsell the GC but 3D World still won't pass Sunshine. I think it'll be overlooked because:

1) The fan base Wii U eventually attracts won't care for 3D World's style.
2) A true 3D Mario will be released someday splitting the sales in 3rds. (2D, 2.5 D and 3D Mario)
3) Mario in general has seen many more entries as of late causing a slight market saturation. (3D Land also exists)


You've got some valid points, even though I don't agree with you fully

 

1) The fan base of Wii U will be defined by the software available for the system. Super Mario 3D World is one of those defining games, and with Mario Kart, Super Smash Bros. and Donkey Kong Country down the road, it'll continue to fit the Wii U fan base like a glove well within 2014 and most likely beyond 2014.

 

2) Yes a true 3D Mario game will released someday, but it's doubtful it will see the light of day within the next 12 months. Meaning Super Mario 3D World will have virtually no competition from the Mario franchise for quite a while. Also, looking at sales for the true 3D Mario games (Super Mario 64, Super Mario Sunshine, Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario Galaxy 2) compared to the less complex main stream Mario games, it's doubtful a true 3D Mario game for Wii U will have such a major negative effect on future sales of Super Mario 3D World.

 

3) I agree that we have seen a slight saturation in the Mario franchise lately, and it could eventually be harmful if Nintendo don't play their cards right. As you point out there is a risk Nintendo are stretching the franchise slightly thin. But as long as they can maintain a "Mario quality", and bring us somewhat unique Mario experiences, we won't see any harm. Also remember that there is a difference between Mario spin off franchises and the Super Mario franchise. Nintendo was smart to drop the "Super" from all Mario related spin offs, which has saved the them from saturation since the mid 90's.

 

I maintain that IF WiiU manages to sell 18-20 million, Super Mario 3D World will reach greater sales than Super Mario Sunshine. The million dollar question is, will we see such hardware sales? :P