I don't think the 3DS will be "replaced" any time soon, but honestly they've "spent" most of their big franchises on it already anyway. It can coexist with a third pillar Nintendo portable device because it should be $99.99 by then, so it's going to be stocked for years to come anyway.
NSMB, 3D Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Pilotwings, Kid Icarus, Animal Crossing, Yoshi, Tamadochi Collection, Brain Training, Nintendogs, Zelda, Luigi's Mansion, will all have already been released for it by the end of 2014. I don't know how much they'll even have in the tank for software support for 2015/16. I wouldn't be surprised to see New Super Mario Bros. 3 next year too ... even next year, the lineup seems like it could be a lot thinner.
They probably will want a new third pillar sooner than later, because they're probably not going to get the profits they want out of the Wii U. Late 2015 isn't that early to be honest, the 3DS will be almost 5 years old by then and it's probably not going to sell anywhere close to the DS, so it doesn't warrant a life cycle as long.
Also I think with the growing threat of tablets/phones getting into the hands of more and more kids at a younger age, Nintendo simply is going to have to respond with something new or accept decelerating sales in the handheld business year by year. I think 3DS has peaked already (probably actually peaked last year in Japan) in terms of sales, it will have lower sales in 2014, and probably even lower in 2015.