Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end.

A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube.

Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such.

Cheebee said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end. A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube. Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such.

Well the difference being that the home console market actually grew after the PS2. The sales were just more spread out. If the 3DS goes on to sell 100m and the Vita 30m, that's only 130m combined across the handheld gaming market. Last gen it was 230m. The handheld gaming market has gone way down and 3DS/Vita sales reflect that. 

Fusioncode said: Cheebee said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end. A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube. Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such. Well the difference being that the home console market actually grew after the PS2. The sales were just more spread out. If the 3DS goes on to sell 100m and the Vita 30m, that's only 130m combined across the handheld gaming market. Last gen it was 230m. The handheld gaming market has gone way down and 3DS/Vita sales reflect that.

Nothing suggsests 3DS will be flat next year (no revision, no pokemon), price is already low. I'm guessing we've already seen the peak. This means even 100m isn't a lock, and 30m likely too high for Vita as well. Perhaps under 100m combined.

Seece said: Fusioncode said: Cheebee said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end. A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube. Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such. Well the difference being that the home console market actually grew after the PS2. The sales were just more spread out. If the 3DS goes on to sell 100m and the Vita 30m, that's only 130m combined across the handheld gaming market. Last gen it was 230m. The handheld gaming market has gone way down and 3DS/Vita sales reflect that.  Nothing suggsests 3DS will be flat next year (no revision, no pokemon), price is already low. I'm guessing we've already seen the peak. This means even 100m isn't a lock, and 30m likely too high for Vita as well. Perhaps under 100m combined.

Yeah I was going with optimistic estimates. It'll be interesting to see if Nintendo even bothers with another handheld after this, I'm sure Sony's done. 

Nintendo will go even more handheld centric next cycle, their handhelds still sell reasonably well, just at a 360/PS3 yearly level.

The next Nintendo handheld even if it's only Vita-level in horsepower will be able to run any Nintendo franchise comfortably in 3D ... whether that's even a Metroid Prime or Zelda game (it would be significantly more powerful than the Wii).

so by you 3DS already peaked and now starts its decline LOL

you dont know whats coming next in terms of SW so you cant say
i think it still has 2 more years more or less flat
and THEN the decline lol

i expect 3DS to hit around 85-90m when all is said and done

What's bigger than Pokemon on a Nintendo handheld?

Another bigger Pokemon

seriously thers a lot! of life still for the 3DS. its barely starting to gain mass market popularity this year so i think we can expect some flat sales YoY for the next and maybe the following too

of course thats if Nintendo wants, they may kill 3DS and start a new venture in form of home-handheld hybrid sooner than i think now

I think that was their attempt with the WiiU, some strange console/handheld hybrid. That's why they prioritized the gamepad and drove system costs up, I'm not sure what they were thinking. 

I'll believe it when I see it, why would the next pokemon be bigger than the last? I mean the userbase will be bigger but the game itself isn't going to push more hardware than X and Y is it? Why would it? Judging by the hardware refreshes they've had, what could we see next year? What is going to drive 15m sales???

I agree there is still life in the 3DS, didn't say otherwise. I'm just analysing numbers and unless you think 3DS will ship 9.45m this Q, then yes it will be its lowest selling year to date.