Cheebee said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end. A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube. Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such.

I see it doing 80M max.

Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end. A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube. Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such. I see it doing 80M max.

2 years 10months > 40mil 3DS sold. 80mil minimum!!! 3DS will keep on selling intill at least 2018/2019. (my guess for the next handheld will arrive 2017 or 2018.

tbone51 said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Lawlight said: Cheebee said: Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year. Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice. Those were peak years? I guess it'll sell about as much as the PSP in the end. A bit more I think, if Nintendo don't cut its life short too early. Around 90 million would be my guess. 100 million max. Which is of course very great, considering everyone everywhere's insisting dedicated handhelds are doomed. Then again, one could use Vita's numbers to support that notion, seeing as how that's on track to sell less than GameCube. Of course I get that you'd like to compare it to DS and call it miserable, but by that logic everything after the PS2 must be considered as such. I see it doing 80M max. 2 years 10months > 40mil 3DS sold. 80mil minimum!!! 3DS will keep on selling intill at least 2018/2019. (my guess for the next handheld will arrive 2017 or 2018.

The 3DS has already peaked - all the big sellers are out now - Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Monster Hunter, a Mario platformer. Unless, of course, they drop the price even further right now. In 3 years, the 3DS sales will be too low for Nintendo to rely solely on it and will announce a new handheld.

thats not true wats so ever. Yes big hitters came but you have no crstal ball. Wii Had big games come out later on after 3 years with a coup,e titles that are best sellers for example.

Your not big on nintendo so let me tell you, There are far more games that can sell 3DS's. We got SSB4 coming out for it. There will be another pokemon (Z) with another big title Ruby/Sapphire Remakes! Then how do we not kno if MH5 Aint coming? There is so many others i can easily mention but i dont think you listen to me anyway

Wii still had casual appeal after 3 years. Also, those big games you're talking about - most of them didn't have an entry out on the system already. The sequels of those 3DS games won't push as much hardware as the first entries.

I dont think you should say that

Remember MHP3 for PSP? Wasnt that the 3rd or ,4th entry for psp and that pushed numbers am i right? Im going to make a list later. There are many games still that will be released on 3DS . I only named Pokemon+MH cuz those are definitely coming to 3DS more than once in the future!

MH is one of those weird Japanese phenomenon that started out of nowhere. Nintendo have to be really, really lucky for that to happen again. Anyway, MHP3rd was the peak for the series.

Looking at 3DS sales on VGC you can observe as follows:

Calendar year: 2011: 13 250 062

Calendar year: 2012: 14 406 901

Calendar year: 2013 so far: 11 900 000

Trends:

Week ending dec 08. 2012:    750 199 I Sales according to VGC: 07. 2013: 666 121

Week ending dec 15. 2012: 1 025 218 I Forecasted sales 14. 2013:     900 000

Week ending dec 22. 2012: 1 241 211 I Forecasted sales 21. 2013: 1 100 000

Week ending dec 29. 2012:    725 008 I Forecasted sales 28. 2013:     650 000

So, an estimated sales this calendar year is: 14 550 000

So if we go by sales for calendar year 2013, there is actually a chance that 3DS really WILL be down YOY. However, it could go either way. Looking at the GBA lifetime, i noticed that it actually peaked the year following the release of Pokemon. Not the year it was released. So following the trends stemming from GBA  i conclude as follows:

If sales are up YOY this calendar year, the 3DS most likely will peak next year. 

Japan - 1.75m
US - 2.2m (judging by 11.5m sell through in US stated by Nintendo)
Europe - 2.2m (usually same as US)
10% for the rest of the world - 620k~

Total - 6.77m sell-through WW

Need to ship 9.68m to beat last year, and 9.45m to not become the lowest selling year for 3DS.

Shipped 7.65m this Q last year.

Based on that sell through, it's hard to see Nintendo shipping anywhere near 9m.

Nintendo just announced they sold over 16 million units in 2013. Thats a HUGE increase from 2011 or 2012. Where are you getting your information because 2013 has been the highest selling eyar for the 3ds

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/3ds-sales-reach-11-5-million-in-us-alone-nintendo-calls-system-a-powerhouse/1100-6417058/