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Forums - Sales Discussion - Confirmed? Lowest selling year for 3DS? Who needs that 3rd year peak ...

Seece on 17 December 2013
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:
Cheebee said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
(.....)
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O

Calendar year shipments.


Ok. But then the numbers do not match. 

34,52 million shipments lifetime <>  39,6 million retail sales lifetime. 

What period of the calendar year does the 5,13 million shipments correspond ?

 

and cheebee... yes, it does seem that PSP sold a little better than Vita

It's 34.98m lifetime shipments, and they're up to end of September, the third Q, which is why I've estimated the entire 4th Q (october onwards) in my calculations ...



 

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nuckles87 on 17 December 2013
Seece said:
Cheebee said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

 

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O

Calendar year shipments.


There's no way that 5 million unit number is accurate. In Japan alone, it's sold 4.2 million this year. It just sold 720,000 in America in November. Unless it hasn't sold ANYTHING in the last 10 months in the US or any other territory, that number is very innacurate.

 

I've been hesitant to call this out because you didn't provide a source for your numbers and I didn't know what their context was. I figured I MUST have been misreading something. But if you are really pushing 5.1 million as total shipments for the entire year, it's just...wrong.

Here's a link to Media Create numbers:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=732865



Seece on 17 December 2013
nuckles87 said:
Seece said:
Cheebee said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

 

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O

Calendar year shipments.


There's no way that 5 million unit number is accurate. In Japan alone, it's sold 4.2 million this year. It just sold 720,000 in America in November. Unless it hasn't sold ANYTHING in the last 10 months in the US or any other territory, that number is very innacurate.

 

I've been hesitant to call this out because you didn't provide a source for your numbers and I didn't know what their context was. I figured I MUST have been misreading something. But if you are really pushing 5.1 million as total shipments for the entire year, it's just...wrong.

Here's a link to Media Create numbers:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=732865


Do you know what shipments are? They're what Nintendo ship to retailers. They're factual, and the evidence is on their website.

Q1: 1.24m
Q2: 1.4m
Q3: 2.49m

Up to end of September. You're showing numbers up to early December.

Christ, isn't rocket science here people. This is a site dedicated to sales and none of you know how sales/shipments work.

The OP explains all of this, I laid out what they've done in Q4 so far and what I expect them to do based on trends/history.



 

Cleary397 on 17 December 2013

The sites front page shows 3DS as 11.9million sold year to date.
Where did you get 5.13 million from?



Current Game Machines: 3DS, Wii U, PC.

Currently Playing: X-Com(PC), Smash Bros(WiiU), Banner Saga(PC), Guild Wars 2(PC), Project X Zone(3DS), Luigis Mansion 2(3DS), DayZ(PC)

Seece on 17 December 2013
Cleary397 said:
The sites front page shows 3DS as 11.9million sold year to date.
Where did you get 5.13 million from?

Read the OP and the post above yours.



 

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Cheebee on 17 December 2013

Hmm. Whether 3DS ends up hitting its target or not, it's going to end up having sold -insanely- well this year.

Looks like 2011, 2012 and 2013 will end up being incredibly similar in sales. 3 Peak years in a row, eh? Nice.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

nuckles87 on 17 December 2013
Seece said:
nuckles87 said:
Seece said:
Cheebee said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

 

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O

Calendar year shipments.


There's no way that 5 million unit number is accurate. In Japan alone, it's sold 4.2 million this year. It just sold 720,000 in America in November. Unless it hasn't sold ANYTHING in the last 10 months in the US or any other territory, that number is very innacurate.

 

I've been hesitant to call this out because you didn't provide a source for your numbers and I didn't know what their context was. I figured I MUST have been misreading something. But if you are really pushing 5.1 million as total shipments for the entire year, it's just...wrong.

Here's a link to Media Create numbers:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=732865


Do you know what shipments are? They're what Nintendo ship to retailers. They're factual, and the evidence is on their website.

Q1: 1.24m
Q2: 1.4m
Q3: 2.49m

Up to end of September. You're showing numbers up to early December.

Christ, isn't rocket science here people. This is a site dedicated to sales and none of you know how sales/shipments work.

The OP explains all of this, I laid out what they've done in Q4 so far and what I expect them to do based on trends/history.


I know what shipments are. I got the impression from this thread that you were saying that the system was selling a total of 5.1 million so far, this year. That was enough to set off some red flags for me and question the thread, especially since VGchartz threads tends to use VGChartz data (which is, well, very innacurate). As such I didn't take the time to read through your OP thoroughly. Sorry. XD

I'm a little surprised that 3DS has only sold 5.1 million throughout the year.



benji232 on 17 December 2013
JoeTheBro said:
Doom!

Oh wait you're just looking at the numbers and making an informed prediction? Carry on.

Making a prediction based off of 2Q worth of shipments and then calling 3Q a full fiscal year and then comparing these 3quarters to full fiscal years is indeed a very informed prediction my good friend.



Predictions for LT console sales:

PS4: 120M

XB1: 70M

WiiU: 14M

3DS: 60M

Vita: 13M

JoeTheBro on 17 December 2013
benji232 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Doom!

Oh wait you're just looking at the numbers and making an informed prediction? Carry on.

Making a prediction based off of 2Q worth of shipments and then calling 3Q a full fiscal year and then comparing these 3quarters to full fiscal years is indeed a very informed prediction my good friend.

I'm not saying he's correct, but yes it's an informed prediction.



Links

Seece on 17 December 2013
benji232 said:
JoeTheBro said:
Doom!

Oh wait you're just looking at the numbers and making an informed prediction? Carry on.

Making a prediction based off of 2Q worth of shipments and then calling 3Q a full fiscal year and then comparing these 3quarters to full fiscal years is indeed a very informed prediction my good friend.

That's not what I'm doing at all.

Seriously people, read the OP.