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Forums - Sales Discussion - Confirmed? Lowest selling year for 3DS? Who needs that 3rd year peak ...

Rogerioandrade on 17 December 2013
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

 

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too



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Rogerioandrade on 17 December 2013
NiKKoM said:




Poor Vita.....



Lawlight on 17 December 2013
Teriol said:
ganoncrotch said:
Augluae said:
The problem of the 3DS is the same as the Wii U, except it's not coming from the same reasons.

The 3DS has a very rude and ever growing and evolving smartphone game market to compete against.

But don't worry they are in the same bag of trouble as handheld: people are more and more interested in PC/Console games that mobile/handheld game because of the screen size, hardware and attraction limitation.

So the 3DS is the first handheld to have lost it appeals, sure, because it followed up on the DS which was a really bad idea, although the new 3D concept and very low priced made it a good sale for the first two years.


http://www.vgchartz.com/

should take a look on the front page when regarding the system having lost it's appeal btw, the massive thing wrong with your argument is the same issue that people had for ages with Soccer moms buying a wii, sure it's sales which could be a Xbox or a ps3 but those people wouldn't have bought a console if not for the fact that a lot of people happen to have a smart phone it's just their phone, sure they might buy some extra upgrades for a simple tap on the screen, basic type game, but these are not people who have choosen this type of gaming over owning a 3DS. 

But yeah, sells 666k last week and people talking doom about it, amazing.

yes only here (VGC) a system sells more than twice their competitors, still someone can do a doom thread about it, it's just amazing :)


Who used the word doom or equivalent? I always see Nintendo fanboys using that word.



Augluae on 17 December 2013

People, especially Nintendo fans, are completely out of touch with reality.

It's not a matter of doom, and the Vita is probably doomed before the 3DS.

But there is a general video game crash coming according to all serious market prediction, and that's why even if the 3DS has shipped mildly the first two years, the dramatic fall in shipment the third year (a third of previous years) instead of continuing to grow, can mean it's loosing big appeal and might fail.

The problem contrary to the Vita, if that Nintendo is already failing with the Wii U, as the current course will be quasi impossible to reverse, again, according to classical trend, market, consumer behavior etc...rules.



Soundwave on 17 December 2013

Next year seems like it could be a tough one for the 3DS. No new Pokemon X/Y to lean on ... perhaps Capcom will push out a Monster Hunter 4G or something but that probably won't push as many new systems as they have most of the MH fanbase now on board.

Dragon Quest XI is probably still a ways off. Mario is spent I think, they need to give him a break (no, Nintendo, just say no to rushing out a New Super Mario Bros. 3 next holiday).

Smash Bros. 3DS yeah, but I wonder if that's a more console centric franchise. If I could only buy one of the two versions it would be the Wii U one, that seems to be something that would work a whole lot better on 40+ inch HDTV with friends in the same room. 

Of the big franchises left that haven't appeared on the 3DS yet -- Kirby (coming), Mario Golf (coming), Metroid (who knows), new Star Fox (who knows), F-Zero (I wish), Advance Wars (yes please), Punch-Out! (sure why not), Wave Race (doubtful) ... these are definitely not the bigger Nintendo franchises. 

Square-Enix isn't pulling their weight on the 3DS like they were on the DS IMO. Where's the Final Fantasy V, VI, or (gulp) VII remakes? Why is DQVIII on cell phones and not 3DS? 



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kirby007 on 17 December 2013

its undertracked...



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Asriel on 17 December 2013

Are we talking calendar year shipments, or fiscal year shipments?

Either way it is interesting. The demand for portable consoles has obviously been impacted by the spread of tablet and smartphone gaming. Nintendo need a few more good years out of 3DS to help them get through the storm Wii U is in, so they can launch something new that's a better long-term bet than 3DS and Wii U have been.

It'll be interesting to see how 3DS holds up next year, and whether or not baseline sales can remain stable on the strength of the overall software library and their ongoing sales, whatever new content is coming, and the lower entry point through-out the full year. I really think Nintendo need Wii U and 3DS on the market until late 2016, to give them enough time to prepare a reinvigorating change of direction, and as I said, a better long-term bet. Now would be a good time to invest and ramp up software development capabilities.



Cheebee on 17 December 2013
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

 

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

Seece on 17 December 2013
Cheebee said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
Meaning to beat 2011 it needs 9.45m shipped.
If we look at what has sold for the Q already, we have US at 1.22m, Japan at 1.03m and Europe (VGC figures, at 1.49m).
Hard to believe Europe of all places is 3DS's strongest region this holiday, there are no 3DS titles in the top 30 in the UK chart! Possibly overtracked a few hundred K.
Anyhow, it's predicting the rest of the years sales that's the tricky part.
Last year 3DS saw a very impressive uptick in the US, Dec was 150%~ over Nov sales. Using this same rise, the 3DS could see 1.9m?!! Hey, it could happen. I think a conservative estimate would be 1.3m - 1.5m however. It could shock us either way.
Japan is difficult too, it was much higher this time last year (211k vs 122k this year) anyhow, 3DS went on to sell another 1.26m. I guess 1m would be a safe bet despite being down yoy 50%~ currently.
Europe, below US for sure. So remains to be seen. 1m - 1.3m though.
Sold so far
US: 1.22m
Japan: 1.03m
Europe: 1.2m~
Prediction
US: 1.3m - 1.5m
Japan: 1m~
Europe: 1m - 1.3m
+ 10% for elsewhere (judging by US, Japan and Europe totals end of 3rd Q, VGC shows 90%+ sell through in those regions)
Gives you 7.4m - 7.9m sell through.
+1m~ for shipments/stock on shelves.
If 3DS did sell between 7.4 - 7.9m, it likely wouldn't ship the 9.45m needed.
Agree? Disagree?
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

 

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O

Calendar year shipments.



 

Rogerioandrade on 17 December 2013
Seece said:
Cheebee said:
Rogerioandrade said:
Seece said:

*In terms of shipments
2011: 14.58m shipped
2012: 14.81m shipped
2013 so far
5.13m.
(.....)
How can this not be 3DS' top year so far with Pokemon and 2DS???

Are you discussing retail sales or shipments ?

Because according to VgChartz data, the 3Ds sold more than 9 million until  11/23th

Since it has sold almost 40 million right now, it is impossible that Nintendo only shipped 5,13 this year, unless you´re talking about only the regular 3DS.  All data concerned the 3DS includes the 2ds and Xl versions too

He may be using fiscal year sales, instead of calendar year. The fiscal year started april 1, iirc. I'm too lazy to look up fiscal year sales, so I could be wrong. The OP's pretty vague, imo...

On a side note; did PSP outsell Vita this year...?   o_O

Calendar year shipments.


Ok. But then the numbers do not match. 

34,52 million shipments lifetime <>  39,6 million retail sales lifetime. 

What period of the calendar year does the 5,13 million shipments correspond ?

 

and cheebee... yes, it does seem that PSP sold a little better than Vita