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Forums - Gaming - 5 Reasons the Video Game Industry is about to Crash...

 

Is a crash likely to happen?

Yes, within a year 20 5.92%
 
Yes, within 2-4 years 54 15.98%
 
Yes, by next Generation 38 11.24%
 
Maybe a wipe-out this gen, but no crash 36 10.65%
 
No, not any time soon 90 26.63%
 
No, the Industry is healthier than ever 100 29.59%
 
Total:338
Desertghost said:

Those points are irrelevant, facts beat opinions, PS4 and XB1 best selling consoles ever.

You decide, whatever helps you sleep at night Nintendrone...

Hahahahahaha *cough* *cough* hahahahahahaha....oh boy...calling Captain_Tom a Nintendrone...hahahahaha

Also with that attitude you won't last here very long. 



Nintendo and PC gamer

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vivster said:

Just to ask, what would a video game crash entail? I can't imagine people would just stop playing videogames. And if they are playing they are willing to pay for new experiences. I don't think it is possible in this day and age for any (major) entertainment product to "crash". The market is just too huge for that.


A crash would entail a major decline in the revenue of the video game industry as a whole within a short period of time. 1983's crash reduced the size of the American market by over 90% within about two years. A modern crash would not necessarily be so severe, but it is implied that a large, at least double-digit percentage of the entire video gaming industry would be removed from the equation.

People didn't just stop playing video games in 1983. 1983 was a perfect storm. The previous (2nd) console generation was ending; the Atari 2600 was out in 1977 and the Magnavox Odyssey in 1978, so they were each already getting old. The big new console meant to start the 3rd gen of consoles, the Atari 5200, had a poor opening, lacked backwards compatibility and original games, and had a crappy controller. Not to mention it cost a whopping $270, $70 more than the Atari 2600 did at launch. The only other viable contenders on the console market the SG-1000 and the Famicom, were just released in Japan, meaning that they really couldn't be localized very quickly, especially in the days where both companies were small. Throw in some high profile failures (The ET game lost Atari $100 million in an era where the entire industry was only $3 billion in the USA), the lack of reliable gaming media to distinguish between good games and shovelware, and competition from other devices, and people just stopped buying games.

They kept on playing the games they already had. They just stopped buying new titles.

 

Could that happen today? I doubt it, but there are some parallels. The 8th gen consoles have generally had decent launches, but have lacked killer apps to set them apart from older systems as well as backwards compatibility, so they might not be adopted by the mass market quickly. The old consoles are definately declining, especially the former titan that was the Wii. Possible contenders, like the Android consoles, are too small to penetrate a market where you must be this high to ride. The gaming press has been losing credibility as of late, as fewer people trust reviewers. And mobile devices offer another way to waste time for a cheaper price. All that's missing now is a huge failure, and we have similar conditions to 30 years ago.

 

If a crash happened today, it almost certainly would not be as big. Instead of taking out 90% of the American console market in two years, it might take out 50%. That said, maybe the crash is already happening. In 2010, about 19 million consoles were sold in the USA. In 2013, it was 17 million. In 2012, it was 14 million, even with the release of the Wii U. That's a roughly 25% drop in two years. So far in 2013, even after Black Friday, only about 8 or 8.5 million consoles have been sold in 2013. Even if a million are sold a week for the rest of the year, that's down from 2012, despite the new Wii U and the "amazing" PS4 and Xbone launches.



they are trying to ban video games (mostly online) in south korea..... yeah they wanna ban it because no one is playing video games :P



 

I do not really expect a crash but I expect a Japan-like decline. The difference from the 83 crash to this one is that we got a general increase of games in 83 but in these times we are getting a gradual decline in number of games.



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Haven't we been having some sizable crashes in the last few years? Remember Guitar Hero! Remember THQ!

Also, have been some buy outs and mergers.

As far as #2. You're Always Flying Blind - that is why I really appreciate game that actually show the engine running. The new game from Ubisoft - The Division had some text showing it's all in game. I remember the commercials for Halo 4, thinking, hmmm, that's the best CGI they can do? But turns out it was all run in game. I think Last of Us did the same as well. So I think the days of the amazing trailer or fancy box art (looks at Atari 2600) and a lousy looking game are more in the past.

And #1 Losing Talent, that always happens. But sometimes people become their own worst enemies. With what Gabe is trying to do with Steam might really kill it, or their is a chance it could be revolutionary. Many companies fail by not knowing where their talent is and how they need to reward it. (Remember Myspace? BlackBerry? Xerox? Sears!)



 

Really not sure I see any point of Consol over PC's since Kinect, Wii and other alternative ways to play have been abandoned. 

Top 50 'most fun' game list coming soon!

 

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We might see the free to play bubble burst, Zynga is already on it's way down.
Indies are rising though and the AAA market is fine. Mid tier games are in trouble though.

A Full crash is very unlikely.



I think Nintendo fans think the game industry will die if a Nintendo console is not king of the hill.

Please just stop, its getting annoying. The internet, mobiles and tablets will make sure gaming wont die. Not to mention the devils named PlayStation and Xbox



Nobody's perfect. I aint nobody!!!

Killzone 2. its not a fps. it a FIRST PERSON WAR SIMULATOR!!!! ..The true PLAYSTATION 3 launch date and market dominations is SEP 1st

theprof00 said:
I read this exact same article last year and the year before.
Funny how these two new consoles are the best selling ever, and how a major player in these systems (indies) pretty much contradicts the entire article.
(Not to mention steambox is coming out as well, which is almost entirely indie games)
Malstrom was wrong about this 3 years ago, and his not so clever copypasta is just as wrong.


I mean... not really.  Fastest selling... but due to larger supply.

The actual consumer size of the consoles can't really be gauged until it hits the point where neither is out of stock.

So it makes it's sales in relation to this topic a bit irrelevent at the moment.

I mean put it this way... do you think both consoles will outsell the PS2?  I sure don't.

 

Had the PS2 and Wii had similar stock... don't you think they would of sold as well?  I Do.



Kasz216 said:
theprof00 said:
I read this exact same article last year and the year before.
Funny how these two new consoles are the best selling ever, and how a major player in these systems (indies) pretty much contradicts the entire article.
(Not to mention steambox is coming out as well, which is almost entirely indie games)
Malstrom was wrong about this 3 years ago, and his not so clever copypasta is just as wrong.


I mean... not really.  Fastest selling... but due to larger supply.

The actual consumer size of the consoles can't really be gauged until it hits the point where neither is out of stock.

So it makes it's sales in relation to this topic a bit irrelevent at the moment.

I mean put it this way... do you think both consoles will outsell the PS2?  I sure don't.

 

Had the PS2 and Wii had similar stock... don't you think they would of sold as well?  I Do.

You have a point, time will tell.

However, one point I'd like to make is that the video game industry is bigger than ever. We just only talk about consoles as if they're everything. Video games are thriving on mobile.



I remember when industry was dead because Wii was outselling PS3 and 360.