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Forums - Gaming Discussion - 5 Reasons the Video Game Industry is about to Crash...

 

Is a crash likely to happen?

Yes, within a year 20 5.92%
 
Yes, within 2-4 years 54 15.98%
 
Yes, by next Generation 38 11.24%
 
Maybe a wipe-out this gen, but no crash 36 10.65%
 
No, not any time soon 90 26.63%
 
No, the Industry is healthier than ever 100 29.59%
 
Total:338
d2wi said:
Also, some of the points the guy makes are kinda... dumb

Make sensational title, generate traffic. Story of online news sites.

People that don't know gaming are in charge? Miyamoto wanted to go into manga, and has said he barely plays video games, and he's credited as the father of modern gaming.

Budgets have gone insane? Very good point. But, that won't lead to a crash. Just polarizing the market, more AAA games and more indie games, and I don't see this as a big deal. Way he's saying it, everything is a rehash and there's no innovation, which is not true. The Last of Us is a brilliant example. It's a AAA title, big company in Naughty Dog, but it's an excellent and refreshing game.

He's also saying that games requiring huge budgets makes game developers are a failed game away from bankruptcy. I view that as a positive. In 1983, shit games flooded the market since they were cheap and sold for a high price. Now, it's the opposite, developers need to buckle the fuck down and make sure their game is damn good.

Paid off reviewers? Yep, happens all the time. But gamers are still gonna be aware of what games will be good. They're not drones that just listen to IGN or GameSpot unquestioningly.

Flying blind? This is just dumb. Consoles come out every few years? Try almost every decade nowadays, The PS4 and Xbox One are much simpler to design more and almost identical graphically, it definitely won't take years to maximize it like this guy is saying. It did take a while for the PS3, but that was the fucking Cell, this is just an AMD GPU.

Industry is exploitative? Boo-hoo, all of them are.

Basically, all I'm seeing is problems video game industry has, a lot of which are minor. Industry has always had problems though, ever since the NES.


Damn!

"The "HD-scare" of the 7th generation is another transition in developer history and has forced smarter solutions (outsourced engine and developer tools being a huge one, as mentioned eariler) and has made investor faith more hard to gain or retain(the primary reason why some companies shut down after a single failure on the market and also a form of publisher control, self-regulation through qualifiers in the corporate structure, unheard of in the 80's industry), and all this has also occurred (as mentioned) in the middle of a financial crisis that you have to go back to the 1929-1935 period to match. The fact that the industry has even made it under these conditions, with entire nations going bankrupt, speaks volumes of their ability to survive."



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small44 said:
Ps4 and xboxone breaking all records and still some think gaming will crash.

You know that's not very hard to do, right? In fact, I think the 7th generation was the only generation where records weren't broken. Record breaking ssays nothing. The Nintendo 64 broke records. Dreamcast broke records.



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The 3 major manufacturers aren't going anywhere. I think some more publishers and developers will go bust though because of the ridiculous budgets and lack of innovation. But indies will replace them and grow.



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the2real4mafol said:
The 3 major manufacturers aren't going anywhere. I think some more publishers and developers will go bust though because of the ridiculous budgets and lack of innovation. But indies will replace them and grow.

We've already seen a bunch of developers go down during the 7th gen for various reasons.

Sometimes it's poor business management or overinflated expectations regarding product performance, poor public reception, delayed and over budget projects, etc.; in other words, the same types of things that will sink any business that isn't being propped up artificially. 

If anything, major product failures will simply mean more resources invested in smaller projects and games that may never generate hundreds of millions in revenue, or even tens of millions, but it would allow for more experimentation, more variety and less attachment to franchises and more focus on original, or at least different concepts in game design. 

Besides, it's not as though there isn't room for both blockbuster, big budget titles and smaller and independently developed ones. 

I don't see the industry shrinking at any rate; it will become more fragmented across multiple platforms if anything between PC, console and mobile, which ultimately just means a larger potential audience. 



Well that was a dumb article LOL.



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greenmedic88 said:
the2real4mafol said:
The 3 major manufacturers aren't going anywhere. I think some more publishers and developers will go bust though because of the ridiculous budgets and lack of innovation. But indies will replace them and grow.

We've already seen a bunch of developers go down during the 7th gen for various reasons.

Sometimes it's poor business management or overinflated expectations regarding product performance, poor public reception, delayed and over budget projects, etc.; in other words, the same types of things that will sink any business that isn't being propped up artificially.

If anything, major product failures will simply mean more resources invested in smaller projects and games that may never generate hundreds of millions in revenue, or even tens of millions, but it would allow for more experimentation, more variety and less attachment to franchises and more focus on original, or at least different concepts in game design.

Besides, it's not as though there isn't room for both blockbuster, big budget titles and smaller and independently developed ones.

I don't see the industry shrinking at any rate; it will become more fragmented across multiple platforms if anything between PC, console and mobile, which ultimately just means a larger potential audience.


In which bizarro universe does failure translate to riskier projects and experimentation?



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Shadow1980 said:

There won't be a repeat of 1983 because the conditions that led to the Crash don't exist today. First off, Atari essentially was the console market. The Intellivision, Colecovision, and other competitors only sold a small fraction of what the 2600 did, and aside from Activision and Imagic's output nearly everything on the 2600 was Atari-published (Activision was the first third-party dev ever). When a series of costly mistakes (E.T., anyone?) cause Atari to implode, it took the smaller consoles out with them, and the market lost over 95% of its value between 1983 and 1985. Activision were about the only ones to make it out relatively unscathed, and they continued making games for home computers, but that third-party status probably helped. The industry is simply too decentralized for one company's mistakes to crash the whole market. Xbox and PlayStation are owned by major companies who don't specialize in gaming, Nintendo is solvent enough to where even if the Wii U only sells as well as the GameCube it won't hurt them (plus they have the very successful 3DS), and there are so many third-party studios that even if one goes belly up, even a big one, the rest of the bunch will absorb the brunt. For the industry to faile, all the major and semi-major third-party developers would have to fail nearly simultaneously, which could cause demand for Xbox and PS hardware to dry up enough for MS and Sony to withdraw from the market if their own output isn't enough (and given how dependent they are on third-party software, it's possible their first-party output wouldn't be enough), and Nintendo would have to see the 3DS drop like a brick in sales (say, less than 5 million units globally next year) and both their next handheld and their next console would both have to fail catastrophically as well. The industry, for all its flaws, is simply too structurally sound for it to collapse anytime soon.

Furthermore, the article's author's points are laughable:

#5: There will always be businesses, including game companies, that make boneheaded decisions. Whether the guys in charge. Sometimes they make up for them, sometimes they don't. THQ lost a lot of money on uDraw, which was one of the reasons they went out of business. EA ruffled a lot of feathers with their online passes and eventually capitulated to consumer demands and discontinued the practice. Ubisoft followed suit as well. Few big publishers will do anything so monumentally damaging to force them out of business, and even if they do someone will buy their most successful properties and publish them. And besides, all these executives must be doing something right, because EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Take-Two, SCE, and Nintendo are still making games that sell millions of copies.

#4: First off, budgets won't keep growing at the rapid rate they used to. There will be a limit to growth. To say otherwise would be to assume that game budgets could get to over a billion dollars by the end of the eighth generation. Average budgets will likely stabilize at around or slightly above current levels. Second, somebody could have made that same argument any number of generations ago: "In the 16-bit era, a game could be made on a budget of $100,000 and with a team of 20 guys. Now that we have all these 3D graphics, some games are costing several million dollars and can teams of 50 or even a hundred guys. This is unsustainable and will lead to a crash." Finally not every game either needs nor gets $50+ million budgets. While GTA might run as high as a Hollywood blockbuster, I doubt BioShock Infinite, Bayonetta, Injustice, or Super Mario 3D World cost nearly as much to make.

#3: Mostly bullshit.

#2: Were things any better in the 80s or 90s? Before we had the internet and all it provides, the only thing we had to go by were Nintendo Power, EGM, and Game Pro. No videos, a few screenshots, and otherwise limited info compared to what we get now. And if we didn't read gaming mags, all we had to go by was word of mouth from friends and other locals. Apparently the author forgot what it was like in the 20th century, because if we're flying blind today, we were flying blind, deaf and dumb back then.

#1: Okay. I got nothing this time. I've already spent nearly half an hour on this and I'm burned out. Any takers?

What? Haven't you visited this thread; http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=166018&page=196#3

It's a well known fact and the truth that everything will go bust all at once (and make Nintendo the omnipotent entity in the industry by default).



Stupidest article I've ever read.

1.) People who don't know about gaming are in charge - who says who knows about gaming? In reality, you, me, or the CEO of Activision are on the same level. Just because you can claim you're a "gamer" doesn't mean your opinions would matter more than the executive. In fact, he would be in a far better position to make decisions because he's basing his stuff on industry practices that work. Face it. COD and GTA move gaming forward because they make gaming popular. More customers = more growth.

So would you like the guy who lives in his mom's basement to make the decisions and make artsy shit games to be in charge? The industry would really crash if they allow fanboys to make decisions. No one would buy that crap except for the core, and the revenue will plummet.

2.) Budgets have gone insane, making innovation impossible - so let's see... big games with high production values and amazing gameplay have no room in our industry right? Go to hell. Without these games, majority of gaming today wouldn't exist. Would you like low budget shit shoved down your throat all the time? Idiotic point.

3.) Publishers are gaming the review system - does anyone care about reviews nowadays? No. People buy what they like. People put stupid review scores because they're fanboys, not because they really know what they want. Thousands of people put 0.0 on the scores even though they don't buy the games. Idiotic point.

2.) You're always flying blind - the gaming industry has been like this for 20 years. Has it failed? No. Stupid point.

1.) The industry is extremely exploitative, and it's driving away talent - the gaming industry has been like this for 30 years. Has it failed? No. Stupid point.

Idiots like this who don't know shit should never write anything.



vivster said:
greenmedic88 said:
the2real4mafol said:
The 3 major manufacturers aren't going anywhere. I think some more publishers and developers will go bust though because of the ridiculous budgets and lack of innovation. But indies will replace them and grow.

We've already seen a bunch of developers go down during the 7th gen for various reasons.

Sometimes it's poor business management or overinflated expectations regarding product performance, poor public reception, delayed and over budget projects, etc.; in other words, the same types of things that will sink any business that isn't being propped up artificially.

If anything, major product failures will simply mean more resources invested in smaller projects and games that may never generate hundreds of millions in revenue, or even tens of millions, but it would allow for more experimentation, more variety and less attachment to franchises and more focus on original, or at least different concepts in game design.

Besides, it's not as though there isn't room for both blockbuster, big budget titles and smaller and independently developed ones.

I don't see the industry shrinking at any rate; it will become more fragmented across multiple platforms if anything between PC, console and mobile, which ultimately just means a larger potential audience.


In which bizarro universe does failure translate to riskier projects and experimentation?

Our world dude. 

More resources are being diverted into mobile and other smaller projects, even among the larger companies. In some cases, it's simple coverage of existing and potential markets, and in other instances, since the capital investment in smaller projects minimizes risk, the result is often something beyond the norm.

If you took that to mean an eight figure product tanks so publishers will spend the same or more on an unproven concept or new IP, you might want to work on those reading comprehension skills. 



greenmedic88 said:
vivster said:
greenmedic88 said:
the2real4mafol said:
The 3 major manufacturers aren't going anywhere. I think some more publishers and developers will go bust though because of the ridiculous budgets and lack of innovation. But indies will replace them and grow.

We've already seen a bunch of developers go down during the 7th gen for various reasons.

Sometimes it's poor business management or overinflated expectations regarding product performance, poor public reception, delayed and over budget projects, etc.; in other words, the same types of things that will sink any business that isn't being propped up artificially.

If anything, major product failures will simply mean more resources invested in smaller projects and games that may never generate hundreds of millions in revenue, or even tens of millions, but it would allow for more experimentation, more variety and less attachment to franchises and more focus on original, or at least different concepts in game design.

Besides, it's not as though there isn't room for both blockbuster, big budget titles and smaller and independently developed ones.

I don't see the industry shrinking at any rate; it will become more fragmented across multiple platforms if anything between PC, console and mobile, which ultimately just means a larger potential audience.


In which bizarro universe does failure translate to riskier projects and experimentation?

Our world dude.

More resources are being diverted into mobile and other smaller projects, even among the larger companies. In some cases, it's simple coverage of existing and potential markets, and in other instances, since the capital investment in smaller projects minimizes risk, the result is often something beyond the norm.

If you took that to mean an eight figure product tanks so publishers will spend the same or more on an unproven concept or new IP, you might want to work on those reading comprehension skills.

Small mobile games by big publishers are rarely risky or experimental. They are nothing more but a lifeline for the them to make some money on the side. How you get from "small game" to "new experiments" is beyond me. The real innovation doesn't come from people who have failed badly in the past but small developers who have not yet had major financial mishaps.

What I'm trying to say is that just because smaller games carry less of a financial risk doesn't mean the publishers won't play it safe. See all the mobile versions of bigger franchises.



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