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Forums - Gaming - 5 Reasons the Video Game Industry is about to Crash...

 

Is a crash likely to happen?

Yes, within a year 20 5.92%
 
Yes, within 2-4 years 54 15.98%
 
Yes, by next Generation 38 11.24%
 
Maybe a wipe-out this gen, but no crash 36 10.65%
 
No, not any time soon 90 26.63%
 
No, the Industry is healthier than ever 100 29.59%
 
Total:338
superhippy420 on 14 December 2013

I don't know about a full on crash but the industry is headed for a big decline this gen, and there are alot of numbers to back it up.

1. Newest Gears of War,Resistance,Infamous,Battlefield,Batman,Killzone 3 were all huge flops, not to mention that massive franchises like Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk are now dead. Other games such as COD,Halo,Pokemon, and Gran Turismo are down as well. Too many releases too fast, has killed things in the music and movie industry and the same holds true for games.

2. Wii U - Its not just that it sold poorly in 2013 but its a combo of how awesome (2nd best at the time) the launch was followed by dismal sales. This is Nintendo we are talking about too. The company whose 1st party Wii titles outsold 360's/PS3's combined. It's not a lock that PS4/Xbone will see a huge decline, but the situations look awfully similar (tons of launch hype followed by zero software to move consoles the next year).

3. Killer Apps are in short supply. This can no doubt change but all 3 companies are playing it way too safe. Sony seems content to keep pushing Killzone/Uncharted. Microsoft is content to keep pushing Forza/Halo. Nintendo is content to keep pushing Mario/Donkey Kong/Zelda. Granted all of these games sell, but games like Gears of War,Uncharted,Wii Sports,Wii Fit, and Little Big Planet were all fresh and brought brand new elements to gaming and were just as big in terms of pushing consoles as the classic franchises were.



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vivster on 14 December 2013
superhippy420 said:
I don't know about a full on crash but the industry is headed for a big decline this gen, and there are alot of numbers to back it up.

1. Newest Gears of War,Resistance,Infamous,Battlefield,Batman,Killzone 3 were all huge flops, not to mention that massive franchises like Guitar Hero and Tony Hawk are now dead. Other games such as COD,Halo,Pokemon, and Gran Turismo are down as well. Too many releases too fast, has killed things in the music and movie industry and the same holds true for games.

2. Wii U - Its not just that it sold poorly in 2013 but its a combo of how awesome (2nd best at the time) the launch was followed by dismal sales. This is Nintendo we are talking about too. The company whose 1st party Wii titles outsold 360's/PS3's combined. It's not a lock that PS4/Xbone will see a huge decline, but the situations look awfully similar (tons of launch hype followed by zero software to move consoles the next year).

3. Killer Apps are in short supply. This can no doubt change but all 3 companies are playing it way too safe. Sony seems content to keep pushing Killzone/Uncharted. Microsoft is content to keep pushing Forza/Halo. Nintendo is content to keep pushing Mario/Donkey Kong/Zelda. Granted all of these games sell, but games like Gears of War,Uncharted,Wii Sports,Wii Fit, and Little Big Planet were all fresh and brought brand new elements to gaming and were just as big in terms of pushing consoles as the classic franchises were.


What makes you think there won't be a wave of new franchises like we've seen last gen?

I mean we already know of Titanfall, The Order 1886 and Watchdogs which are all highly anticipated. There are others as well and with the new indie Golden Age there will be no shortage of games for the first 2 years of the generation. WiiU is probably not a good comparison here.



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dsp333 on 14 December 2013

Salnax said:

Games like Mario titles, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, and even 2nd party titles like The Wonderful 101 that don't fit in either the 99 cent or AAA model seem to largely come from Nintendo nowadays.


W101 and 3D World are definitely AAA.



WagnerPaiva on 14 December 2013

Man, I disagree in SO many levels, even the WiiU future is looking brighter these days, gaming is just getting cooler and cooler, more and more popular.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

the2real4mafol on 16 December 2013
greenmedic88 said:
the2real4mafol said:
The 3 major manufacturers aren't going anywhere. I think some more publishers and developers will go bust though because of the ridiculous budgets and lack of innovation. But indies will replace them and grow.

We've already seen a bunch of developers go down during the 7th gen for various reasons.

Sometimes it's poor business management or overinflated expectations regarding product performance, poor public reception, delayed and over budget projects, etc.; in other words, the same types of things that will sink any business that isn't being propped up artificially. 

If anything, major product failures will simply mean more resources invested in smaller projects and games that may never generate hundreds of millions in revenue, or even tens of millions, but it would allow for more experimentation, more variety and less attachment to franchises and more focus on original, or at least different concepts in game design. 

Besides, it's not as though there isn't room for both blockbuster, big budget titles and smaller and independently developed ones. 

I don't see the industry shrinking at any rate; it will become more fragmented across multiple platforms if anything between PC, console and mobile, which ultimately just means a larger potential audience. 

Whatever leads to greater variety in games is surely a good thing. 



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Rogerioandrade on 16 December 2013
Captain_Tom said:

A very interesting article:

http://www.cracked.com/article_20727_5-reasons-video-game-industry-about-to-crash.html

I have been saying for about 2 years now that a game crash could be coming soon.  There are just a ton of parallels with the one of the early 80's.   However I don't think it would be as bad as that one by any means since indies and PC will soldier on no matter what...

What do you guys think?


One thing is sure: console gaming is NOT becoming more popular, despite of what die-hard fans may think.  This award belongs to tablet, mobile and PC gaming. Those are the devices that people will be using for gaming in the future. ops... they´re using it right now.

The industry will  meet lower sales this generation, now that we don´t have the huge casual crowd to guarantee big money for home consoles manufacturers anymore. Not lower enough for a crash, but companies will need to break some paradigms if they want to make the 9th generation successfull.

#5. We Put People Who Don't Know Gaming in Charge 
#4. Budgets Have Gone Insane, and That's Making Innovation Almost Impossible

I believe we saw several examples of those reasons in the latest two years.  The third point (Publishers are Gaming the Review System) is quite controversial, as I´d put that the review system is not the only problem, but the way the videogame press treat its object too.  The other two (flying blind and exploitative industry) doesnt seems to be directly related to a possible crash of the industry.