How is that worst case? That's probably one of the best cases. Especially the two final weeks. I don't see it coming close to that.
Its based on historical trends for Nintendo home console hardware sales over the JPN holidays. Anecdotally, Japan GAF have also implied WiiU is gaining popularity and awareness - especially since Nintendo has started advertising the damn thing like crazy there these last couple of weeks. You dont see it coming close to that? Okey..