in USA its first week sales are 80% of 3D Land and that game will be near 4m in USA by the end of the year. If it continues to sell 80% of 3D Land it will be about 3.2m by the end of 2015 in just USA.

It didnt do as well in Japan at 30% of 3D Land FW which will be about 2m by the end of the year. If it continues to sell 30% of 3D Land it will be about 600k by the end of 2015 in Japan.

We dont have Europe sales yet for 3D World but lets assume it does somewhere in between USA/Japan in relation to 3D Land so lets say it does 50% of 3D Land FW and continues to do so, by the end of 2015 it would be around 1.2m

By the end of 2015 its possible 3D World is at 5m in USA+Japan+Europe and when u add in the rest of the world then it would be around 5.5 million and continuing to sell decently for a few more years. Lifetime easily could be over Sunshine/Galaxy 2 if it continues to sell at a similar percentage of 3D Land sales.

I'm no NPD insider lol. Sry

Is it a flop? Wow... Some game makers pray for sales like this.

It's not going to touch 3D Land/Galaxy level sales. I think Nintendo fans really need to become more realisitic with some of these expectations, they're border line ridiculous. 

I said it before many times, it's not fair to put this level of expectation on Mario 3D World, the Wii U hardware is a dud and has a ton of marketing and demographic problems, that's the problem. That's not EAD Tokyo's fault, they've been let down by incompetent management. 

If it can sell 4-5.5 million LTD that's great, considering what a disaster the Wii U is and the way Nintendo has mismanaged the Mario brand the last few years (you already get 1 1/2 Mario games with the system, you really think that does any favors for 3D World?). 

Well Dream Team and NSMB2 are unlikely to come close to the sales of the previous entry in their series.  So I'm not sure what point you're making.  People generally judge sales based on expectations, not just whether it managed it be profitable.  If GTAV were to sell only 10 million lifetime it probably would have been profitable, but would be seen as a flop.  Ghosts is the second best selling game this year across platforms after just two weeks, but the general view is that sales are disappointing because they are down so much from last year.

As for the thread, sales in Japan are quite bad.  US sales seem alright, though it is less than NSMBU did at launch week.  Probably worth waiting for NPD before drawing any conclusions.  Pikmin and Wind Waker were off significantly.

No its not a flop, 100k Japan and around 250k America in only a few days of sales is very good considering Wii U install base. This is where i think Nintendo do ok, their first party games have a brilliant attatch rate. If Wii U doesnt set the world on fire, i still see Ninty selling a lot of first party games on it.

Depends on the game. CoD selling 5M, GTA doing 6M or GT selling 4M would be flops, even if most games don't even dream with that numbers.

The job of a first party is to sell the hardware, doesn't look like 3D World did that at all. trying to look at things as objectively as possible, yeah its a flop. As it didn't do its job. If the userbase isn't there that's Nintendo's fault.less than 100k in Japan is awful. 200k in the US which is more favorable to 3D Mario's than any where else is troubling. And being outsold by Knack in UK is embarrasing.

Would be interesting to see the digital numbers since I downloaded the game personally.

It flopped in the UK. Elsewhere it mostly disappointed. But it didn't prove to be a system seller, and that's what matters the most. I think it says more about the Wii U's problems than the game's appeal itself.

It's still an awesome game, whether it sells 5 copies or 5 million.