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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Super Mario 3D World First Week Predictions! (Give A Seperate Answer for US/Japan/Europe)

Incubi said:

Japan sales in. WiiU: 21000. SM3D World lowest debuting Mario game in the modern era. It prolly is over. Taiko no Tetsujin bombs.

The end.

If that chart is any indication, I think what you mean is "the beginning."



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Soundwave said:

Come now. We've had this conversation.

Nobody would count on launch games to "save" a console, because a console that hasn't launched yet doesn't need saving. Nobody in their right mind would point to TW101 as some kind of savior either. Do it right or don't do it at all, half-assing it like this is just silly.

Also, need I remind you that we don't have Western numbers yet for 3D World?



the_dengle said:
Soundwave said:

Come now. We've had this conversation.

Nobody would count on launch games to "save" a console, because a console that hasn't launched yet doesn't need saving. Nobody in their right mind would point to TW101 as some kind of savior either. Do it right or don't do it at all, half-assing it like this is just silly.

Also, need I remind you that we don't have Western numbers yet for 3D World?


Don't shoot the messenger, it's a image from NeoGaf, and while W101 can be excused, Mario 3D World, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, NSMBU, and the price drop/bundles can't be. I'd probably add Nintendo Land to that list, as Nintendo obviously was hoping that would be a system seller alongside NSMBU. 



Soundwave said:


Don't shoot the messenger, it's a image from NeoGaf, and while W101 can be excused, Mario 3D World, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, NSMBU, and the price drop/bundles can't be. 

Some things there work and some don't. But the chart is bad and you should feel bad for reposting it. How hard would it be to mock up a more legit one? Just take a few things off and replace them with something farther down the line.

As we discussed before, the chart is a reference to the old PS3 ones, but where for the PS3 only the first 2-3 games came in its first year, for some reason the Wii U's first year takes up 3/4 of the list. It feels like it was lazily cobbled together without any actual thought.



the_dengle said:
Soundwave said:


Don't shoot the messenger, it's a image from NeoGaf, and while W101 can be excused, Mario 3D World, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, NSMBU, and the price drop/bundles can't be. 

Some things there work and some don't. But the chart is bad and you should feel bad for reposting it. How hard would it be to mock up a more legit one? Just take a few things off and replace them with something farther down the line.

As we discussed before, the chart is a reference to the old PS3 ones, but where for the PS3 only the first 2-3 games came in its first year, for some reason the Wii U's first year takes up 3/4 of the list. It feels like it was lazily cobbled together without any actual thought.


Wii U's in deep trouble any way you spin it. The US numbers for October NPD were ugly and the VGC for the first two weeks of November are nothing to write home about either. 

Nintendo fans need to realize the whole "keep throwing more Mario at every problem, and throw in some niche titles in between, it'll fix everything!" line of reasoning was borderline delusional to begin with.



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Soundwave said:


Wii U's in deep trouble any way you spin it. The US numbers for October NPD were ugly and the VGC for the first two weeks of November are nothing to write home about either. 

Nintendo fans need to realize the whole "keep throwing more Mario at every problem, and throw in some niche titles in between, it'll fix everything!" line of reasoning was borderline delusional to begin with.

I'm not spinning anything, that chart defies logic and is offensive to my brain. Wii U isn't selling well, I get it. What does that have to do with the delusions of someone who thought Nintendo fans expected TW101 to suddenly cause a massive influx of demand for the Wii U?

Here, I did half the work for you. It took like 30 seconds. Kindly put together a real list of potential Wii U saviors so I don't have to look at that nonsense ever again. How about Zelda, for a start?



the_dengle said:
Soundwave said:


Wii U's in deep trouble any way you spin it. The US numbers for October NPD were ugly and the VGC for the first two weeks of November are nothing to write home about either. 

Nintendo fans need to realize the whole "keep throwing more Mario at every problem, and throw in some niche titles in between, it'll fix everything!" line of reasoning was borderline delusional to begin with.

I'm not spinning anything, that chart defies logic and is offensive to my brain. Wii U isn't selling well, I get it. What does that have to do with the delusions of someone who thought Nintendo fans expected TW101 to suddenly cause a massive influx of demand for the Wii U?

Here, I did half the work for you. It took like 30 seconds. Kindly put together a real list of potential Wii U saviors so I don't have to look at that nonsense ever again. How about Zelda, for a start?


The system will be largely irrelevant to the overall market long before Zelda arrives at this rate. I think Zelda will be more of a "thank you" love letter from Nintendo to the few loyalsts in their fanbase that stuck with the Wii U through 2014/2015 more than anything else. 

Mario 3D World, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, Wii Sports Club, New Super Mario Bros. U, Nintendo Land, Mario Kart 8, Just Dance, and Smash Bros. are the games that are going to define whether or not the system is a success or not, and right now that's not looking good. It looks like the first two parts of that equation have essentially abandoned them and Mario is going through a large decline this generation in part due to over saturation.

Basically the strategy was casual gamers (the Wii Fit/Sports fan) + minigame/dance game comps + Mario games is Nintendo's basic formula for selling this console. 

I agree things like W101 are niche, but so are X and Bayonetta 2, these aren't going to have any real impact on the overall userbase size. 



Sorry, I got confused about the dates.



Soundwave said:


The system will be largely irrelevant to the overall market long before Zelda arrives at this rate. I think Zelda will be more of a "thank you" love letter from Nintendo to the few loyalsts in their fanbase that stuck with the Wii U through 2014/2015 more than anything else. 

Mario 3D World, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U, Wii Sports Club, New Super Mario Bros. U, Nintendo Land, Mario Kart 8, Just Dance, and Smash Bros. are the games that are going to define whether or not the system is a success or not, and right now that's not looking good. It looks like the first two parts of that equation have essentially abandoned them and Mario is going through a large decline this generation in part due to over saturation.

Basically the strategy was casual gamers (the Wii Fit/Sports fan) + minigame/dance game comps + Mario games is Nintendo's basic formula for selling this console. 

I agree things like W101 are niche, but so are X and Bayonetta 2, these aren't going to have any real impact on the overall userbase size. 

There's a reason I didn't suggest X or Bayonetta 2 for the chart.

I wasn't aware it mattered what you thought, I was under the impression the chart was supposed to be mocking Nintendo fans for thinking there was any hope left. The problem is that the joke falls flat when absurd things like launch titles, the virtual console, and niche games are included. By comparison, Zelda (no matter when it comes) is far more appropriate.



I'm not surprised at 3D World's sales as much as I am about the lack of any boost. Still who would've predicted these numbers, catastrophic. The Wii U is struggling a lot now... I think Nintendo's decision in making these Mario games an annual release has backfired catastrophically.