Shadow1980 said:
Scisca, how can you actually seriously claim that Mario Kart 8 will be the first system seller for the Wii U? I simply can't understand your reasoning for being so dismissive towards Super Mario 3D World. The idea that it won't boost sales is ridiculous. It's freakin' Mario! Sure no 3D Mario games have sold as well as NSMB and NSMBWii, but their numbers are nothing to scoff at, either:
Mario 64: 11,900,000 (+10 million more for the DS remake) Mario Sunshine: 6,300,000 Mario Galaxy: 10,900,000 (Nintendo claims 11,720,000) Mario Galaxy 2: 7,000,000 3D Land: 8,670,000 and counting
Most games only wish they had those kinds of numbers. Halo games generate comparable sales, yet I don't think anyone would dismiss that brand's importance to Microsoft and its ability to sell hardware. In relative terms, 3D Mario games don't do as well as those from the NSMB series, but in absolute terms 3D Mario games do exceptionally well. They also have all had very strong debuts (maybe not as huge as big-name Western action series like COD and GTA, but games with massive multi-million opening weeks are the exception, not the rule, even among popular series). Here's how they fared on their first weeks, rounded off the nearest thousand (SM64 data unavailable, and SMS data only partially available):
Mario Sunshine: 338k (Japan) Mario Galaxy: 527k (U.S.), 261k (Japan), 154k (Europe) Mario Galaxy 2: 705k (U.S.), 340k (Japan), 227k (Europe) 3D Land: 303k (U.S.), 342k (Japan), 159k (Europe)
Both Galaxy games and 3D Land also had sold several million copies each by the end of their debut years. By any objective measure, 3D Mario games sell very well, and are among the best-selling titles on any system they're released for. And every other major popular series, whether it be Halo, COD, GTA, or whatever, are all system-sellers. There's no reason to think that 3D World can't boost sales either. Now, 3D World is technically a 3D game, so it likely won't sell 20 million lifetime, but it combines the successful 3D Land style with some of the attributes of New Super Mario, including four-player simultaneous co-op (or competitive if the players are so inclined). So, this isn't going to be the typical single-player Mario experience. I think it will definitely be a system-seller, and could go on to sell several hundred thousand copies on launch week, at least 2-3 million copies by year's end, and perhaps 8-10 million lifetime.
I also couldn't help but notice that in one post you implied that because NSMBU hasn't done anything to boost sales, and that "2D Mario > 3D Mario" sales-wise, we shouldn't expect anything from 3D World. If that is indeed what you were implying, well, your assumption is based on spurious reasoning. The other New Super Mario Bros. games have indeed been very strong sellers, but NSMBU was something that the others were not: a launch title. The others were released on systems that already had a decent install base and a solid selection of software. NSMBU was literally the only major non-bundled exclusive (Nintendo Land is sold as a standalone title, but it was also bundled with the Deluxe SKU) between launch and the debut of Pikmin 3. With games like Rayman Legends, The Wonderful 101, and the aforementioned Pikmin 3 being pushed back from the launch window until summer, NSMBU had to carry an entire system on its back all by itself. People might like NSMBU, but obviously not enough to buy a $300 system just for it. That's why the Wii has faltered all this year despite having a very strong launch. NSMBU and Nintendo Land alone were just not enough to get people to buy the sytem. The "Wii U has no games" argument was mostly true in the sense of having hardly any of the titles that traditionally sell Nintendo systems, but that will be a non-issue very soon.
As for the other forthcoming titles you also dismiss — Sonic: Lost World, Wii Party U, and the newest Mario & Sonic Olympics game this quarter, and DKC: Tropical Freeze next quarter — their predecessors should give us a good idea of how well they could potentially sell:
Donkey Kong Country Returns: 6,000,000
Wii Party: 8,170,000
Sonic Generations: 1,970,000 Sonic Colors: 1,500,000 Sonic & The Secret Rings: 2,600,000
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: 7,880,000 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games: 4,390,000 Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games: 3,530,000
Not too shabby. In terms of lifetime sales, Lost World could potentially sell well over a million copies and Wii Party U could sell a few million, and both could do well enough during to holidays to help supplement the boost that 3D World will give the system. I think that this holiday season will be very strong for the Wii U. As for next quarter, DKC should prove to be quite popular as well, and I don't think anybody doubts that Mario Kart 8 will be anything short of a sales juggernaut (I'm thinking 15-20 million lifetime), so the system should be able to retain decent momentum after the New Year. As mentioned, the Wii U had a strong debut, and anecdotal evidence suggest strong interest in the system (you should have seen the Nintendo Experience events the week of E3; packed Best Buys everywhere), and now that it's had a price cut and is getting an influx of major exclusives, I suspect it will get a second wind and go on to sell very well over the course of the next year. As for the longer term, it will depend on if Nintendo can keep the exclusives coming. I still stand by my projections that the system can potentially reach SNES levels by time goes out of production (which will likely be in 5-7 years).
As for the Vita, well, I think you overestimate its performance last holiday. Look at this chart:
It sold under 1.3 million units combined last holiday season (November & December), less than any other system besides the DS. That's the weakest second holiday of any system ever. In their second holiday seasons, the PSP sold over 4 million units, the 360 about 2.9 million, the PS3 over 3.5 million, and the DS over 7 million. This is because it has the same problem as the Wii U, that being a relative lack of major software titles, yet despite being around longer this situation has yet to be resolved. Uncharted: Golden Abyss is the only title for the system to sell over 1 million units worldwide, and it has a few other titles that have sold a few hundred thousand copies (and most of those are titles from 2012). Sony could still salvage the Vita situation — after all, the PSP showed that they are capable of making a successful handheld — but by any objective measure it did not do well last holiday.
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