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Zero999 on 08 October 2013
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Scisca said:


@3D Mario. I know the numbers, but you know - the past is the past. Galaxy numbers come from a console that was hot like hell, selling faster than PS2. Wii U is slower than GCN so your numbers would give us probably 4.5-5 mil lifetime. Moreover I could always counter it by the easy NSMBWii 27 mil vs. NSMBWii U at 2 mil argument, which would give an ever more severe ratio, but that doesn't really matter. The thing is I HAVE NEVER SAID IT WOULDN'T BOOST SALES. And I've repeated it so many times in this thread that it's really getting bloody annoying, so stop putting words in my mouth and repeating this crap.

It will boost sales, but Zero999 was claiming that the surge we're gonna see soon is (at least mainly) going to be due to games and not Christmas, which I think is total BS. Had there been no Christmas season ahead of us Mario would have made a bump, but wouldn't have set Wii U on fire. Why? Cause it comes in the hellstorm of PS4 and XO release. Everybody is going to be crazy about these consoles, we're gonna see crazy ad campaigns, there will hype all around. And where is Wii U? Literally - where is it? It's hard to even find it on a shelf. Wii U has no momentum as it is, this game would have a hard time turning it aroung in a calmer time of year, but doing it in this exact time is next to impossible. Mario has never faced such a difficult situation and 3D Mario isn't strong enough to draw the attention away from the new consoles to the "dead" Wii U. The console will get a significant boost and Mario 3D will sell a lot, but because people will be buying gifts and PS4/XO will be sold out, not because over a million people have been waiting with the Wii U purchase so long just for a 3D Mario. I am certain it would get lost in all the nex gen craze and wouldn't catch NSMBU or moved significant hardware without Christmas.

So to keep it short - Christmas is going to have a significantly bigger impact on the upcoming boost than Mario. It's gonna be Christmas carrying the sales of Wii U and 3D Mario, not the game generating the increase in sales.

On the other hand - I believe Mario Kart is strong enough to pull some attention away on its own at any given point and not just for a short burst of time. It will be capable of changing the momentum for Wii U, if just enough to start chasing up on the Gamecube and get ahead of Vita in weekly sales.

@Vita - look. Vita has been out for over a year and a half. During that Christmas it sold 1/4th of its lifetime sales. You can't compare it to other consoles, because it's clear that the ceiling is different for different platforms and Vita's is significantly lower than the ones you list. Saying DS sold 7 mil is moot, cause Vita will never reach 150 mil consoles sold and in fact was never supposed to reach it (even in the most optimistic pre-launch scenarios). Again - IIRC the start of the conversation was Zero999 claiming that Christmas boost isn't universal magic, because Vita didn't do well. That's just untrue. It did good for what it is capable of doing and you always have to judge a product for what it is. I have no idea how many regular months it takes Vita to sell that much, but it has to be quite a lot, so I am absolutely possitive that it did good at that time.

wii u won't be lower than gamecube for ever. Nsmb wii vs NsmbU? you mean the game releasing when wii had like 60M installed base vs the one released on a 0 base? the game with 27% attach ratio vs over 50% ratio? easy indeed, to counter, that is.

ps4/xone release? the consoles whose buyers have no interest on any other system this holidays (since they're the diehard fans)?

those new releases have so much impact on other systems, it must be why 3ds sold more than vita on VITA'S RELEASE WEEK.