| Shadow1980 said: Scisca, how can you actually seriously claim that Mario Kart 8 will be the first system seller for the Wii U? I simply can't understand your reasoning for being so dismissive towards Super Mario 3D World. The idea that it won't boost sales is ridiculous. It's freakin' Mario! Sure no 3D Mario games have sold as well as NSMB and NSMBWii, but their numbers are nothing to scoff at, either: Mario 64: 11,900,000 (+10 million more for the DS remake) Most games only wish they had those kinds of numbers. Halo games generate comparable sales, yet I don't think anyone would dismiss that brand's importance to Microsoft and its ability to sell hardware. In relative terms, 3D Mario games don't do as well as those from the NSMB series, but in absolute terms 3D Mario games do exceptionally well. They also have all had very strong debuts (maybe not as huge as big-name Western action series like COD and GTA, but games with massive multi-million opening weeks are the exception, not the rule, even among popular series). Here's how they fared on their first weeks, rounded off the nearest thousand (SM64 data unavailable, and SMS data only partially available): Mario Sunshine: 338k (Japan) Both Galaxy games and 3D Land also had sold several million copies each by the end of their debut years. By any objective measure, 3D Mario games sell very well, and are among the best-selling titles on any system they're released for. And every other major popular series, whether it be Halo, COD, GTA, or whatever, are all system-sellers. There's no reason to think that 3D World can't boost sales either. Now, 3D World is technically a 3D game, so it likely won't sell 20 million lifetime, but it combines the successful 3D Land style with some of the attributes of New Super Mario, including four-player simultaneous co-op (or competitive if the players are so inclined). So, this isn't going to be the typical single-player Mario experience. I think it will definitely be a system-seller, and could go on to sell several hundred thousand copies on launch week, at least 2-3 million copies by year's end, and perhaps 8-10 million lifetime. I also couldn't help but notice that in one post you implied that because NSMBU hasn't done anything to boost sales, and that "2D Mario > 3D Mario" sales-wise, we shouldn't expect anything from 3D World. If that is indeed what you were implying, well, your assumption is based on spurious reasoning. The other New Super Mario Bros. games have indeed been very strong sellers, but NSMBU was something that the others were not: a launch title. The others were released on systems that already had a decent install base and a solid selection of software. NSMBU was literally the only major non-bundled exclusive (Nintendo Land is sold as a standalone title, but it was also bundled with the Deluxe SKU) between launch and the debut of Pikmin 3. With games like Rayman Legends, The Wonderful 101, and the aforementioned Pikmin 3 being pushed back from the launch window until summer, NSMBU had to carry an entire system on its back all by itself. People might like NSMBU, but obviously not enough to buy a $300 system just for it. That's why the Wii has faltered all this year despite having a very strong launch. NSMBU and Nintendo Land alone were just not enough to get people to buy the sytem. The "Wii U has no games" argument was mostly true in the sense of having hardly any of the titles that traditionally sell Nintendo systems, but that will be a non-issue very soon. As for the other forthcoming titles you also dismiss — Sonic: Lost World, Wii Party U, and the newest Mario & Sonic Olympics game this quarter, and DKC: Tropical Freeze next quarter — their predecessors should give us a good idea of how well they could potentially sell: Donkey Kong Country Returns: 6,000,000 Wii Party: 8,170,000 Sonic Generations: 1,970,000 Not too shabby. In terms of lifetime sales, Lost World could potentially sell well over a million copies and Wii Party U could sell a few million, and both could do well enough during to holidays to help supplement the boost that 3D World will give the system. I think that this holiday season will be very strong for the Wii U. As for next quarter, DKC should prove to be quite popular as well, and I don't think anybody doubts that Mario Kart 8 will be anything short of a sales juggernaut (I'm thinking 15-20 million lifetime), so the system should be able to retain decent momentum after the New Year. As mentioned, the Wii U had a strong debut, and anecdotal evidence suggest strong interest in the system (you should have seen the Nintendo Experience events the week of E3; packed Best Buys everywhere), and now that it's had a price cut and is getting an influx of major exclusives, I suspect it will get a second wind and go on to sell very well over the course of the next year. As for the longer term, it will depend on if Nintendo can keep the exclusives coming. I still stand by my projections that the system can potentially reach SNES levels by time goes out of production (which will likely be in 5-7 years). As for the Vita, well, I think you overestimate its performance last holiday. Look at this chart:
It sold under 1.3 million units combined last holiday season (November & December), less than any other system besides the DS. That's the weakest second holiday of any system ever. In their second holiday seasons, the PSP sold over 4 million units, the 360 about 2.9 million, the PS3 over 3.5 million, and the DS over 7 million. This is because it has the same problem as the Wii U, that being a relative lack of major software titles, yet despite being around longer this situation has yet to be resolved. Uncharted: Golden Abyss is the only title for the system to sell over 1 million units worldwide, and it has a few other titles that have sold a few hundred thousand copies (and most of those are titles from 2012). Sony could still salvage the Vita situation — after all, the PSP showed that they are capable of making a successful handheld — but by any objective measure it did not do well last holiday. |
@3D Mario. I know the numbers, but you know - the past is the past. Galaxy numbers come from a console that was hot like hell, selling faster than PS2. Wii U is slower than GCN so your numbers would give us probably 4.5-5 mil lifetime. Moreover I could always counter it by the easy NSMBWii 27 mil vs. NSMBWii U at 2 mil argument, which would give an ever more severe ratio, but that doesn't really matter. The thing is I HAVE NEVER SAID IT WOULDN'T BOOST SALES. And I've repeated it so many times in this thread that it's really getting bloody annoying, so stop putting words in my mouth and repeating this crap.
It will boost sales, but Zero999 was claiming that the surge we're gonna see soon is (at least mainly) going to be due to games and not Christmas, which I think is total BS. Had there been no Christmas season ahead of us Mario would have made a bump, but wouldn't have set Wii U on fire. Why? Cause it comes in the hellstorm of PS4 and XO release. Everybody is going to be crazy about these consoles, we're gonna see crazy ad campaigns, there will hype all around. And where is Wii U? Literally - where is it? It's hard to even find it on a shelf. Wii U has no momentum as it is, this game would have a hard time turning it aroung in a calmer time of year, but doing it in this exact time is next to impossible. Mario has never faced such a difficult situation and 3D Mario isn't strong enough to draw the attention away from the new consoles to the "dead" Wii U. The console will get a significant boost and Mario 3D will sell a lot, but because people will be buying gifts and PS4/XO will be sold out, not because over a million people have been waiting with the Wii U purchase so long just for a 3D Mario. I am certain it would get lost in all the nex gen craze and wouldn't catch NSMBU or moved significant hardware without Christmas.
So to keep it short - Christmas is going to have a significantly bigger impact on the upcoming boost than Mario. It's gonna be Christmas carrying the sales of Wii U and 3D Mario, not the game generating the increase in sales.
On the other hand - I believe Mario Kart is strong enough to pull some attention away on its own at any given point and not just for a short burst of time. It will be capable of changing the momentum for Wii U, if just enough to start chasing up on the Gamecube and get ahead of Vita in weekly sales.
@Vita - look. Vita has been out for over a year and a half. During that Christmas it sold 1/4th of its lifetime sales. You can't compare it to other consoles, because it's clear that the ceiling is different for different platforms and Vita's is significantly lower than the ones you list. Saying DS sold 7 mil is moot, cause Vita will never reach 150 mil consoles sold and in fact was never supposed to reach it (even in the most optimistic pre-launch scenarios). Again - IIRC the start of the conversation was Zero999 claiming that Christmas boost isn't universal magic, because Vita didn't do well. That's just untrue. It did good for what it is capable of doing and you always have to judge a product for what it is. I have no idea how many regular months it takes Vita to sell that much, but it has to be quite a lot, so I am absolutely possitive that it did good at that time.
Wii U is a GCN 2 - I called it months before the release!
My Vita to-buy list: The Walking Dead, Persona 4 Golden, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, TearAway, Ys: Memories of Celceta, Muramasa: The Demon Blade, History: Legends of War, FIFA 13, Final Fantasy HD X, X-2, Worms Revolution Extreme, The Amazing Spiderman, Batman: Arkham Origins Blackgate - too many no-gaemz :/
My consoles: PS2 Slim, PS3 Slim 320 GB, PSV 32 GB, Wii, DSi.
