landguy1 said: Your whole premise is based on AAA titles all being on launch day and then none for 8-10 months(WiiU). The difference is that there are 2 new systems launching with a lot more games for each. Also, both of these systems (obviously a lot more PS4 at launch period)will have a bunch of indie titles to keep people busy. The people who all have picked sides of either the XB1 or PS4 will also start considering getting a second system and then you will have another group of the launch games selling again. Because both the PS4/XB1 have features that are beyond gaming, they can continue to advertise and promote their systems for those features as well. Then you have the timed exclusives that will allow some of the games to go to the other platforms and then you will see more sales again. Sorry, the WiiU will probably sell some systems and software through the holidays, but the real problem is that the core buyer of Nintendo products has not been educated on what the WiiU is or that it even matters. The WiiU really looks like the Wii. Nintendo should have never tried to leverage the Wii brand, and should have came up with a new name. IMO, most people stop looking at the package as soon as they see Wi and never even get to the iU. They think they already bought that a couple of years ago. Nintendo really would need to come up with a stellar marketing campaign to even get people to notice they have a product that is not 7-8 years old. The overwhelming marketing hype that will be coming from M$(to make up for the bad press) and Sony(to ensure they keep their momentum) will be just too loud for the casual crowd to ignore. |
That's where I think you're wrong. The core buyer of Nintendo home console products knows everything about the Wii U and they're buying it, IMO. I just think the core buyer of the Nintendo console is a much smaller number of people than what some might think because of how well Wii sold. The core buyer of Nintendo home consoles is much closer to the number of people who bought the Gamecube than the number of people who bought Wii. And the Wii U is selling accordingly.
What Nintendo have failed to do so far (and maybe Wii Fit U might change all that) is convince its blue ocean consumer base to hop on over from Wii to Wii U. Those people have either stopped playing Wii and are not likely to buy any nexgen console, or they are still playing their Wii but not actively buying games so feel no need to look at replacing hardware because they are still having plenty of fun with what they have, or they are half of a 2 console owning household (Mum and little'uns use the Wii, teens and Dad use PS3/360, like some of my friends) and the half that's getting the nexgen console is the PS360 playing half.
I also think Pachter is correct when he says a lot of the late gen PS3/360 buyers are early gen Wii buyers, and many of them are of course not going to buy a Wii U soon after buying a PS3/360. They may buy Wii U in a few years, or they may have decided to stick with the next Sony or MS platform. Many of people in that category of Wii buyer are former PS2 owners, so they have no bankable loyalty to Nintendo platforms.
The Wii situation is unlike the PS3 situation, and unlike the 360 situation (pre-Kinect). What drove PS3and 360 sales was dominated by the gamer deographic rather than the blue ocean. The gamer demographic is a smaller number of people than the blue ocean, but they are far more reliable as nexgen buyers, and indeed early gen buyers.
This is the mistake most people predicting multi-generation Nintendo dominance made by looking at the toal Wii sales. They assumed everyone buying Wii was a gamer at heart, when too many of them were non-gamers hypnotised by motion controls and fitness apps; which is a very hard group of people to convince to shell out money on another console now that they are out of their hypnotic trance.