Basically all im asking is if u take the average number each Nintendo console and Nintendo franchises sell, will Wii U be able to match or surpass them?

HARDWARE

 NES-61.91, SNES-49.10, N64-32.93, GC-21.74, Wii-100.17, Average-53.17

Its possible but it think it will miss the mark by a little, im guessing 40-50m

2D Mario

SMB-40.24, SMB2-7.46, SMB3-17.28, World-20.61, NSMBWii-27.09, Average-22.53

I personally feel 3D World is more in tune with 2D Mario market and will split the 2D Mario fanbase down the middle so im counting both NSMBU and 3D World in this category since i still believe a Mario Universe game is coming in 2015. Individually i doubt they can make it but combined they should be able to, they should each sell 10-12 million.

3D Mario

Mario 64-11.18, Sunshine-6.31, Galaxy-10.88, Galaxy 2-7.06, Average-8.85

If and when a Mario Universe game comes out it should be able to meet these numbers.

Mario Kart

Kart-8.76, Kart 64-9.87, Double Dash-6.95, Kart Wii-33.92, Average-14.87

For the past 3 generations Mario Kart has sold roughly 1/3 the install base of the console its on, if my prediction for Wii U selling 40-50 million comes true and Mario Kart continues this trend then this number is exactly what it should sell.

Smash Bros

Smash Bros-5.55, Melee-7.07, Brawl-11.78, Average-8.13

This series has consistantly grown but now its also on 3DS but i think it will remain surpreme on consoles, Wii U-8m and 3DS-5m is my prediction

Donkey Kong

DKC-9.30, DKC2-5.15, DKC3-3.51, DK64-5.27, Returns-6.01, Average-5.85

This series has sold pretty consistant regardless of hardware sales so 5.85 is easily doable for Tropical Freeze.

Legend of Zelda

Zelda-6.51, Zelda 2-4.38, LttP-4.61, OoT-7.60, Majora-3.36, Wind Waker-4.60, Twilight(Wii+GC)-8.41, Skyward-3.69, Average-5.40

I see no reason why Zelda U doesnt meet this goal.

Animal Crossing

Crossing-3.15, City Folk-4.47, Average-3.81

This is a series thats more popular on handhelds but still sells pretty well on consoles, 3.8 is realistic.

Metroid

Metroid-2.73, Super-1.42, Prime-2.82, Echoes-1.33, Corruption-1.65, Other M-1.25, Average-1.86

Again i see no reason why the Wii U version wouldnt sell similar to the this series average sales.

Kirby

Adventure-1.75, Kirby 64-1.77, Return to Dreamland-1.58, Average-1.70

This is one of the most consistant sellers, should remain so

Pokemon Fighting

Stadium-5.45, Stadium 2-2.73, Colleseum-2.54, Battle Revolution-1.53, Average-3.06

This series has constistantly gone down but if the rumored Pokemon fighting game is a marked improvement and X/Y reinvigorate Pokemon then this is possible.

Fire Emblem

Path of Radience-0.54, Radiant Dawn-0.46, Average-0.50

Pretty consistant plus Shim Megami Tensei seems to sell in this range as well so FExSMT could reach 500k easily if it attracts fans from both series, which i think it will.

Star Fox

Star Fox-2.99, Star Fox 64-4.03, Adventures-1.87, Assault-1.08, Average-2.49

This series has been dormant for 8 years now and fans have been requesting it, a revival has potential to sell 2.5 million in my opinion.

F-Zero

F-Zero-2.85, X-1.10, GX-0.65, Average-1.53

Same as Star Fox, a sequel is long overdue and constantly requested, a return has potential to sell 1.5 million.

Xeno

Xenogears-1.46, Xenosaga-1.74, Episode 2-0.58, Episode 3-0.37, Xenoblade-0.84, Average-1.00

If marketed properly X can easily sell 1 million or more.

Yoshi/Yarn series

Yoshi Island-4.12, Yoshi Story-2.85,Epic Yarn-2.16, Average-3.04

This is a tought call and is possible but i think Yarn Yoshi will sell 2-3 million

Pikmin

Pikmin-1.63, Pikmin 2-1.20, Average-1.41

Pikmin 3 is already past 400k in a little over a month, 1.4 isnt out of the question.

Battalion Wars

Wars-0.40, Wars 2-0.32, Average-0.36

If this game comes it should be able to sell in this range, gamepad seems like a nice fit for this series.

Bayonetta

PS3-1.09, 360-0.86, Average-0.98

Just like X, if this game is marketed properly then it may exceed the first games sales. Not PS360 combined but more than each platform individually.

Wonderful 101

Viewtiful Joe-0.62, Viewtiful Joe 2-0.22, Average-0.44

I think of W101 as a spiritual successor to Viewtiful Joe so thats what ill compare it to. W101 has gotten off to a slow start in Europe and Japan but N. America might be more receptive to it and it may show some legs as Wii U sales pick up, i think it will pass 400k

Sonic on Nintendo consoles

Adventure-1.27, Adventure 2-2.56, Heroes-1.60, Unleashed-1.99, Secret Rings-2.60, Black Knight-0.94, Average-1.82

1.8 sounds very reasonable for Sonic Lost World to me.

Mario & Sonic Olympics

Olympic Games-7.88, Winter Games-4.39, London 2012-3.52, Average-5.26

This one i dont see happening, maybe 3-4 million

Mario Party

Party-2.70, Party 2-2.50, Party 3-1.91, Party 4-2.47, Party 5-2.08, Party 6-1.65, Party 7-1.57, Party 8-7.93, Party 9-2.59, Average-2.82

Outside of Party 8, this series has always sold 1.5-2.7million. I think that will continue on Wii U so 2.8 is a little higher but most definitely possible.

Wii Series

Sports-81.51, Resort-31.87, Play-28.74, Fit-22.76, Plus-21.23, Music-3.20, Average-28.21

This is harder to predict than the others and i have a strong feeling these series will sell less than there Wii counterparts. Assuming that Sports gets a sequel then i think Sports/Fit/Party combined will reach 28.21

Overall Software/Attach Ratio

NES-501.48/8.10, SNES-379.06/7.72, N64-225.16/6.84, GC-208.61/9.60, Wii-892.38/8.91, Average-441.34/8.23

If Wii U has the average hardware sales then in theory it should have average software/attach ratio as well.

So what does everyone think, can Wii U meet these standards?

I can see it selling 40m lifetime. Software all looks pretty possible, but Mario Kart average was boosted ridiculously high by the Wii game.

I think you forgot Sonic Colours :P

Ya its crazy, 7-10 million then BAM!!!! 30+ million

Wii U ain't even sniffing the NES, SNES, or Wii. That's pure fantasy IMO.

It can barely maintain a sales rate comparable to the Sega Dreamcast competing against a 7 year old XBox 360 and a 6 year old PS3 as is.

At this point I think it will require a bit of a minor miracle to match the N64.

N64 had ground shattering Mario and Zelda games and an extremely popular version of Mario Kart to boot as well as some huge hits from Rare, most notably GoldenEye, which was a monster blockbuster and it still only got Nintendo to 33 million or so.

Is Nintendo going to make a Mario anytime before 2015 that has the impact of Mario 64? Do they have something equivalent to GoldenEye? Or even Perfect Dark? Is the next Zelda going to be more popular than Ocarina of Time?

I think if Nintendo continue to support it, it definitely can reach 50m. It will need to find an extra momentum from somewhere though, hopefully starting this christmas.

I think this is a well thought out OP. It's actually a very interesting observation to think WiiU will sell at the 'Nintendo-average' for both hardware and software. The funny thing is that all those numbers look believable for WiiU, with the exception of 2D Mario and the Wii-series (didn't you forget Wii Play Motion though?) but you already pointed that out. Anyway, I don't have anything to go against this, so to answer the thread-title's question I'd say; "yes".

Definitely a fair post but the Wii U still has lots of time to find the killer software it needs. I wouldn't write it off just yet!

This is of course true, but not coincidentally those games were also the best selling ones in each of their franchises. With the exception of Mario Kart, but that seems to follow a stricked 1/3 attach-ratio no matter the install-base. So good games did definitely help the N64. I think the problem was, that the system didn't have enough games. Not nearly and especially compared to the PS1. If you look at the attach-ratio of the N64, it's barely over 6 and the total amount of games is also quite low. It just didn't have much else.

Strangely though, that last sentence doesn't apply to me personally, since by far and wide I have the most games on N64 of all of my consoles .

On the hardware side i agree with u, although Its possible for It to sell a little over 50m, but the age of PS360 is irrelevent as they are still being heavily supported and $50-100 cheaper. The first console of each new gen has always sold less than previous gen hardware, combined with the fact that Wii U has one of if not the biggest post launch drought and the first time a Nintendo console has been the most expensive. PS360 had easily 3x as many high profile games release this year if not more. Currently Wii U is the HD triplet as its basically a PS360 with a gamepad. People may be interested in Wii U at first then see 90% of its games are available for less expensive hardware that also have 10x as many games. Also there is no incentive for current PS360 owners to pick one up as they already have access to most of its games.

Soon it will have a plethora of games u cant play on other consoles and it will be $100-200 cheaper than its competition. PS3/360/PS4/One all fight for the same demographics and with PS360 still being supported and 1/2 the cost of PS4/One they eat into each other sales. U have admitted that Nintendo systems will 20-25m on the strength on Nintendo fans alone. Also it remains to be seen if casuals are interested in Wii U as there really isnt many games that are aimed at them yet, we will see how many return once Wii Party/Fit/Sports release. It wont be like Wii but 20-25m casuals/families picking up a Wii U in the next few years is feasible. 25m Nintendo fans+25m casual=50m total which is just about the average Nintendo console.

On the software side most of these are within the realm of possibility, whats ur take on those?