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I think this is a well thought out OP. It's actually a very interesting observation to think WiiU will sell at the 'Nintendo-average' for both hardware and software. The funny thing is that all those numbers look believable for WiiU, with the exception of 2D Mario and the Wii-series (didn't you forget Wii Play Motion though?) but you already pointed that out. Anyway, I don't have anything to go against this, so to answer the thread-title's question I'd say; "yes".