Basically all im asking is if u take the average number each Nintendo console and Nintendo franchises sell, will Wii U be able to match or surpass them?
HARDWARE
NES-61.91, SNES-49.10, N64-32.93, GC-21.74, Wii-100.17, Average-53.17
Its possible but it think it will miss the mark by a little, im guessing 40-50m
2D Mario
SMB-40.24, SMB2-7.46, SMB3-17.28, World-20.61, NSMBWii-27.09, Average-22.53
I personally feel 3D World is more in tune with 2D Mario market and will split the 2D Mario fanbase down the middle so im counting both NSMBU and 3D World in this category since i still believe a Mario Universe game is coming in 2015. Individually i doubt they can make it but combined they should be able to, they should each sell 10-12 million.
3D Mario
Mario 64-11.18, Sunshine-6.31, Galaxy-10.88, Galaxy 2-7.06, Average-8.85
If and when a Mario Universe game comes out it should be able to meet these numbers.
Mario Kart
Kart-8.76, Kart 64-9.87, Double Dash-6.95, Kart Wii-33.92, Average-14.87
For the past 3 generations Mario Kart has sold roughly 1/3 the install base of the console its on, if my prediction for Wii U selling 40-50 million comes true and Mario Kart continues this trend then this number is exactly what it should sell.
Smash Bros
Smash Bros-5.55, Melee-7.07, Brawl-11.78, Average-8.13
This series has consistantly grown but now its also on 3DS but i think it will remain surpreme on consoles, Wii U-8m and 3DS-5m is my prediction
Donkey Kong
DKC-9.30, DKC2-5.15, DKC3-3.51, DK64-5.27, Returns-6.01, Average-5.85
This series has sold pretty consistant regardless of hardware sales so 5.85 is easily doable for Tropical Freeze.
Legend of Zelda
Zelda-6.51, Zelda 2-4.38, LttP-4.61, OoT-7.60, Majora-3.36, Wind Waker-4.60, Twilight(Wii+GC)-8.41, Skyward-3.69, Average-5.40
I see no reason why Zelda U doesnt meet this goal.
Animal Crossing
Crossing-3.15, City Folk-4.47, Average-3.81
This is a series thats more popular on handhelds but still sells pretty well on consoles, 3.8 is realistic.
Metroid
Metroid-2.73, Super-1.42, Prime-2.82, Echoes-1.33, Corruption-1.65, Other M-1.25, Average-1.86
Again i see no reason why the Wii U version wouldnt sell similar to the this series average sales.
Kirby
Adventure-1.75, Kirby 64-1.77, Return to Dreamland-1.58, Average-1.70
This is one of the most consistant sellers, should remain so
Pokemon Fighting
Stadium-5.45, Stadium 2-2.73, Colleseum-2.54, Battle Revolution-1.53, Average-3.06
This series has constistantly gone down but if the rumored Pokemon fighting game is a marked improvement and X/Y reinvigorate Pokemon then this is possible.
Fire Emblem
Path of Radience-0.54, Radiant Dawn-0.46, Average-0.50
Pretty consistant plus Shim Megami Tensei seems to sell in this range as well so FExSMT could reach 500k easily if it attracts fans from both series, which i think it will.
Star Fox
Star Fox-2.99, Star Fox 64-4.03, Adventures-1.87, Assault-1.08, Average-2.49
This series has been dormant for 8 years now and fans have been requesting it, a revival has potential to sell 2.5 million in my opinion.
F-Zero
F-Zero-2.85, X-1.10, GX-0.65, Average-1.53
Same as Star Fox, a sequel is long overdue and constantly requested, a return has potential to sell 1.5 million.
Xeno
Xenogears-1.46, Xenosaga-1.74, Episode 2-0.58, Episode 3-0.37, Xenoblade-0.84, Average-1.00
If marketed properly X can easily sell 1 million or more.
Yoshi/Yarn series
Yoshi Island-4.12, Yoshi Story-2.85,Epic Yarn-2.16, Average-3.04
This is a tought call and is possible but i think Yarn Yoshi will sell 2-3 million
Pikmin
Pikmin-1.63, Pikmin 2-1.20, Average-1.41
Pikmin 3 is already past 400k in a little over a month, 1.4 isnt out of the question.
Battalion Wars
Wars-0.40, Wars 2-0.32, Average-0.36
If this game comes it should be able to sell in this range, gamepad seems like a nice fit for this series.
Bayonetta
PS3-1.09, 360-0.86, Average-0.98
Just like X, if this game is marketed properly then it may exceed the first games sales. Not PS360 combined but more than each platform individually.
Wonderful 101
Viewtiful Joe-0.62, Viewtiful Joe 2-0.22, Average-0.44
I think of W101 as a spiritual successor to Viewtiful Joe so thats what ill compare it to. W101 has gotten off to a slow start in Europe and Japan but N. America might be more receptive to it and it may show some legs as Wii U sales pick up, i think it will pass 400k
Sonic on Nintendo consoles
Adventure-1.27, Adventure 2-2.56, Heroes-1.60, Unleashed-1.99, Secret Rings-2.60, Black Knight-0.94, Average-1.82
1.8 sounds very reasonable for Sonic Lost World to me.
Mario & Sonic Olympics
Olympic Games-7.88, Winter Games-4.39, London 2012-3.52, Average-5.26
This one i dont see happening, maybe 3-4 million
Mario Party
Party-2.70, Party 2-2.50, Party 3-1.91, Party 4-2.47, Party 5-2.08, Party 6-1.65, Party 7-1.57, Party 8-7.93, Party 9-2.59, Average-2.82
Outside of Party 8, this series has always sold 1.5-2.7million. I think that will continue on Wii U so 2.8 is a little higher but most definitely possible.
Wii Series
Sports-81.51, Resort-31.87, Play-28.74, Fit-22.76, Plus-21.23, Music-3.20, Average-28.21
This is harder to predict than the others and i have a strong feeling these series will sell less than there Wii counterparts. Assuming that Sports gets a sequel then i think Sports/Fit/Party combined will reach 28.21
Overall Software/Attach Ratio
NES-501.48/8.10, SNES-379.06/7.72, N64-225.16/6.84, GC-208.61/9.60, Wii-892.38/8.91, Average-441.34/8.23
If Wii U has the average hardware sales then in theory it should have average software/attach ratio as well.
So what does everyone think, can Wii U meet these standards?
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
