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Forums - Sony Discussion - How Many Copies Did The Last of Us Have To Sell To Become Profitable?

 

How many copies to make the game profitable?

Less than 1m 26 6.03%
 
1m 51 11.83%
 
1.5m 64 14.85%
 
2m 81 18.79%
 
2.5m 33 7.66%
 
3m 31 7.19%
 
3.5m 19 4.41%
 
4m 34 7.89%
 
See results 92 21.35%
 
Total:431
Eternal on 25 August 2013
the-pi-guy said:
Eternal said:

They clearly stated sold so I don't know what you don't understand about that.

But even if you are correct,difference between shipped and sold is so small,especially for this kind of title,can't imagine much of them standing on shelfs.

So yeah,I bet bear 5 million by now.You guys are also pretty ignorant about digital sales which are huge these days.

So with 5 million by now times 35$ = 175 million $.

Nice.

When ever a company says sold, they mean shipped.  For them, they ship a game, because it is sold.  They sell a game to stores, then stores sell the game to people.  Companies count the number of copies that they sell to stores.  Do you really think that they are able to keep track of all the titles sold from Kmart, Gamestop, all the random little shops that have the game to be sold?  

Well,of course,you didn't need to explain all that,it's clear to me.But then why do you want to differentiate shipped vs sold coz it's sold for the company when it's shipped.And we are trying to calculate here how many Sony earned so shipped and sold are basically synonyms for this topic.



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Lawlight on 25 August 2013
Screamapillar said:
paulrage2 said:
1.5 million copies at U$60 = 90 million


That $90 million is total revenue, though.  It's not all going to Sony or to Naughty Dog.  Retail margins, manufacturing, shipping, etc.  Sony itself probably isn't making much more than $30 or so from each copy, if that.


According to the anatomy of a $60 game, Sony is making $41 on each game sold.

Also, I was reading on GAF that The Last of Us team had 90 people. That is not a lot these days. Budget most likely around $40M when you know that Uncharted 2 had a budget of $20M.



ListerOfSmeg on 25 August 2013
Munkeh111 said:
ListerOfSmeg said:
You cant count each copy as going 100% to the developer. It doesn't work that way. I'd say with 3million it is by now but not to the extent some are suggesting. they may only make 20.00 for every copy sold. More if digital so its safe to say its profitable at this point though sales for such a great game on a console with 90 million sold is really kind of low. Game should be at 10 million or more at this point.

Really? Really? 10m? Given that the active install base is probably much less than the 80m consoles sold, you expect like 1 in 6 gamers to have bought it. I know it is very good and all, but there is no way you can expect GTA or CoD like numbers from something that is simply more hardcore and intimidating

Anyway, Uncharted 1 and 2 had development budgets of $20m. It is fairly safe to assume that the Last of Us had a similar budget. It was basically in development from when they finished Uncharted 2, which would be 3 1/2 years, but presumably the first year or so, it was just pre-production. They also had to hire tons of employees to basically double the size of the studio (Linked In suggests it has "201-500" which doesn't seem right. If I recall correctly, it had about 80 at the start of the gen). So maybe scale that to $25m and then $50 when you take into account the marketing?

So, assuming $30 per copy sold (conservative given that it is made by the platform holder), it needed to sell about 1.6m copies, which it has done easily. Also bare in mind that when they sell it through the PS store, they get ALL the money! So yeah, this game was really profitable for Sony.


Yes really really. I would expect the fan base that is always talking about exclusives to actually buy up those exclusives not have 3rd party multi plats be the best sellin thing on the console.

I STATED CLEARLY its most like been profitable for a while so I am not sure what got you so upset.

I remember many articles proclaiming Mario Galazy to be a failure because it didnt sale 6 million with an install base of 50 million.

Sorry but quality games shouldnt be hindered by low sales. Sure 3 million sounds good til you look at CoD selling upwards of 10 million.

Sorry but I truly believe the game deserves better sales then CoD. Call me an idiot or whatever you want because my opinion doesnt match yours but it wont change anything.

Now please go back to trying to convince people 1k wont even cover the cost of a graphics card

 



Max King of the Wild on 25 August 2013
ListerOfSmeg said:
Munkeh111 said:
ListerOfSmeg said:
You cant count each copy as going 100% to the developer. It doesn't work that way. I'd say with 3million it is by now but not to the extent some are suggesting. they may only make 20.00 for every copy sold. More if digital so its safe to say its profitable at this point though sales for such a great game on a console with 90 million sold is really kind of low. Game should be at 10 million or more at this point.

Really? Really? 10m? Given that the active install base is probably much less than the 80m consoles sold, you expect like 1 in 6 gamers to have bought it. I know it is very good and all, but there is no way you can expect GTA or CoD like numbers from something that is simply more hardcore and intimidating

Anyway, Uncharted 1 and 2 had development budgets of $20m. It is fairly safe to assume that the Last of Us had a similar budget. It was basically in development from when they finished Uncharted 2, which would be 3 1/2 years, but presumably the first year or so, it was just pre-production. They also had to hire tons of employees to basically double the size of the studio (Linked In suggests it has "201-500" which doesn't seem right. If I recall correctly, it had about 80 at the start of the gen). So maybe scale that to $25m and then $50 when you take into account the marketing?

So, assuming $30 per copy sold (conservative given that it is made by the platform holder), it needed to sell about 1.6m copies, which it has done easily. Also bare in mind that when they sell it through the PS store, they get ALL the money! So yeah, this game was really profitable for Sony.


Yes really really. I would expect the fan base that is always talking about exclusives to actually buy up those exclusives not have 3rd party multi plats be the best sellin thing on the console.

I STATED CLEARLY its most like been profitable for a while so I am not sure what got you so upset.

I remember many articles proclaiming Mario Galazy to be a failure because it didnt sale 6 million with an install base of 50 million.

Sorry but quality games shouldnt be hindered by low sales. Sure 3 million sounds good til you look at CoD selling upwards of 10 million.

Sorry but I truly believe the game deserves better sales then CoD. Call me an idiot or whatever you want because my opinion doesnt match yours but it wont change anything.

Now please go back to trying to convince people 1k wont even cover the cost of a graphics card

 



your expectations are ridiculous. Not even CoD, GT, Halo, or GTA would be at 10 million at this point. just stop



think-man on 25 August 2013
ListerOfSmeg said:
Munkeh111 said:
ListerOfSmeg said:
You cant count each copy as going 100% to the developer. It doesn't work that way. I'd say with 3million it is by now but not to the extent some are suggesting. they may only make 20.00 for every copy sold. More if digital so its safe to say its profitable at this point though sales for such a great game on a console with 90 million sold is really kind of low. Game should be at 10 million or more at this point.

Really? Really? 10m? Given that the active install base is probably much less than the 80m consoles sold, you expect like 1 in 6 gamers to have bought it. I know it is very good and all, but there is no way you can expect GTA or CoD like numbers from something that is simply more hardcore and intimidating

Anyway, Uncharted 1 and 2 had development budgets of $20m. It is fairly safe to assume that the Last of Us had a similar budget. It was basically in development from when they finished Uncharted 2, which would be 3 1/2 years, but presumably the first year or so, it was just pre-production. They also had to hire tons of employees to basically double the size of the studio (Linked In suggests it has "201-500" which doesn't seem right. If I recall correctly, it had about 80 at the start of the gen). So maybe scale that to $25m and then $50 when you take into account the marketing?

So, assuming $30 per copy sold (conservative given that it is made by the platform holder), it needed to sell about 1.6m copies, which it has done easily. Also bare in mind that when they sell it through the PS store, they get ALL the money! So yeah, this game was really profitable for Sony.


Yes really really. I would expect the fan base that is always talking about exclusives to actually buy up those exclusives not have 3rd party multi plats be the best sellin thing on the console.

I STATED CLEARLY its most like been profitable for a while so I am not sure what got you so upset.

I remember many articles proclaiming Mario Galazy to be a failure because it didnt sale 6 million with an install base of 50 million.

Sorry but quality games shouldnt be hindered by low sales. Sure 3 million sounds good til you look at CoD selling upwards of 10 million.

Sorry but I truly believe the game deserves better sales then CoD. Call me an idiot or whatever you want because my opinion doesnt match yours but it wont change anything.

Now please go back to trying to convince people 1k wont even cover the cost of a graphics card

 


Please stop, seriously you're not making this any easier.



 

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Munkeh111 on 25 August 2013
ListerOfSmeg said:
Munkeh111 said:

Really? Really? 10m? Given that the active install base is probably much less than the 80m consoles sold, you expect like 1 in 6 gamers to have bought it. I know it is very good and all, but there is no way you can expect GTA or CoD like numbers from something that is simply more hardcore and intimidating

Anyway, Uncharted 1 and 2 had development budgets of $20m. It is fairly safe to assume that the Last of Us had a similar budget. It was basically in development from when they finished Uncharted 2, which would be 3 1/2 years, but presumably the first year or so, it was just pre-production. They also had to hire tons of employees to basically double the size of the studio (Linked In suggests it has "201-500" which doesn't seem right. If I recall correctly, it had about 80 at the start of the gen). So maybe scale that to $25m and then $50 when you take into account the marketing?

So, assuming $30 per copy sold (conservative given that it is made by the platform holder), it needed to sell about 1.6m copies, which it has done easily. Also bare in mind that when they sell it through the PS store, they get ALL the money! So yeah, this game was really profitable for Sony.


Yes really really. I would expect the fan base that is always talking about exclusives to actually buy up those exclusives not have 3rd party multi plats be the best sellin thing on the console.

I STATED CLEARLY its most like been profitable for a while so I am not sure what got you so upset.

I remember many articles proclaiming Mario Galazy to be a failure because it didnt sale 6 million with an install base of 50 million.

Sorry but quality games shouldnt be hindered by low sales. Sure 3 million sounds good til you look at CoD selling upwards of 10 million.

Sorry but I truly believe the game deserves better sales then CoD. Call me an idiot or whatever you want because my opinion doesnt match yours but it wont change anything.

Now please go back to trying to convince people 1k wont even cover the cost of a graphics card

I'm not debating that they shouldn't be buying it, I am debating that they would. Lots of people don't want to buy something new, lot's of people don't want to buy games which are actually scary. Of course quality games can be "hindered" by small sales. Just because the games are good, doesn't necessarily mean that everyone likes it. How do you really expect it to sell CoD numbers. It sells to different people and there aren't as many people interested in the Last of Us. I don't know who you are dissapointed in, Sony or the world?

And yeah, I know what thread you are talking about, I don't know what you are talking about though



painmaster212 on 25 August 2013

Me and 2 coworkers were having this same discussion at work just 2 days ago but on gaming in general,with development,marketing,publishing,shipping,artwork/cases/manuals and stores taking their percentage how much does the average game have to sell before it turns a profit? I was thinking the average game needed at least 300k to turn a profit but these big budget games would tend to need quite abit more.

Then i look at how low of costs it takes to create a pair of Nike/Jordan shoes and they turn around and sell them for $160 to $260 per pair and realize how lucky we all are to have games selling for $60 (even though alot of them are not worth that)



Augen on 25 August 2013

I would think somewhere between 1 and 2 million copies to turn a profit.

Naughty Dog seem to keep budgets reasonable when making big titles and advertising didn't seem over board. If you could have a development model for major releases Naughty Dog is a great standard for quality and efficiency.



Augen on 25 August 2013
painmaster212 said:

Then i look at how low of costs it takes to create a pair of Nike/Jordan shoes and they turn around and sell them for $160 to $260 per pair and realize how lucky we all are to have games selling for $60 (even though alot of them are not worth that)


Well..yes and no.  Costs to make a products (materials, labor etc.) is a major part of the price is, but demand in market shapes it as well.  I think the gaming industry would charge $100 for game (ask NEO-GEO) but people simply wouldn't go for it.

On your example, I buy a pair of shoes for $20 (seriously, people spend $100+ on trainers!?) and they last me a good five years of use so per hour comes to fractions of a penny for me.  Compare to games which can vary from several dollars an hour to pennies an hour depending on game.  



Barozi on 26 August 2013
Eternal said:
the-pi-guy said:
Eternal said:

They clearly stated sold so I don't know what you don't understand about that.

But even if you are correct,difference between shipped and sold is so small,especially for this kind of title,can't imagine much of them standing on shelfs.

So yeah,I bet bear 5 million by now.You guys are also pretty ignorant about digital sales which are huge these days.

So with 5 million by now times 35$ = 175 million $.

Nice.

When ever a company says sold, they mean shipped.  For them, they ship a game, because it is sold.  They sell a game to stores, then stores sell the game to people.  Companies count the number of copies that they sell to stores.  Do you really think that they are able to keep track of all the titles sold from Kmart, Gamestop, all the random little shops that have the game to be sold?  

Well,of course,you didn't need to explain all that,it's clear to me.But then why do you want to differentiate shipped vs sold coz it's sold for the company when it's shipped.And we are trying to calculate here how many Sony earned so shipped and sold are basically synonyms for this topic.

Retailers can ship back unused copies if they order enough, therefore shipped is not quite the same as sell through to Sony.

Furthermore it happened plenty of times that publishers overshipped games (I'm not suggesting that this was the case here, but it's certainly possible that the 3.4m shipment is enough to last for several weeks - 3.4m was shipped after 3 weeks btw.).
Capcom shipped 4.5m copies of Resident Evil 6 at launch day. 6 months later they have only shipped 400k more units.

Also digital sales for consoles (especially last gen conosles) are not huge at all.
http://www.destructoid.com/sony-digital-business-is-the-faster-growing-business--246237.phtml
Vita beating PS3 in digital sales despite the huge difference in userbase.
Add ~10-15% to the retail sales and you know the total sales.