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Forums - Sales Discussion - LEO-J prediction: IF PS4 launches in OCTOBER, PS4 WILL GO TO #1 BY THE END OF 2013

Zero999 on 18 August 2013
Train wreck said:
RazorDragon said:

No. I believe WiiU will start selling much more after the big first-party games are released, and that PS4 will have a big drop in sales after the first month, like every current gen system released.

Which big Nintendo first party titles are you talking about?  Mario and Sonic winter olympics, Donkey Kong Country TF, Mario 3DW, Wii Fit and Zelda STILL do not have concrete release dates in the US, so you are going to have to ride on the backs of W101 and Sonic (which will do better on the 3DS). If the PS4 is releasing in late october, its first month is going to be black friday and its second month christmas, really dude?

it's getting sad for you. we know the month those games are coming, who cares about the specific date.



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mutantclown on 18 August 2013
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
eFKac said:
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

Too late!!! I had already bet against his crazy prediction :D

Lucky. The PS4 and XBONE would have to flop right out of the gate to make that even possible. Combined with a price cut of $100 and it's still unlikely though.

ps4 and xone can do whatever they want this holidays, it won't affect wii u sales. and it's funny that you think wii u needs a 199 price but two machines with less games will do ok at 399 and 499.


Bigger games though, like COD Ghosts, BF4, Madden 25... Wanna bet every single multiplat sells WAY better on PS4/Xbone than Wii U?



JoeTheBro on 18 August 2013
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:
eFKac said:
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

Too late!!! I had already bet against his crazy prediction :D

Lucky. The PS4 and XBONE would have to flop right out of the gate to make that even possible. Combined with a price cut of $100 and it's still unlikely though.

ps4 and xone can do whatever they want this holidays, it won't affect wii u sales. and it's funny that you think wii u needs a 199 price but two machines with less games will do ok at 399 and 499.

The Wii U does not exist in a bubble. It is currently competing with PS360 sales (not much though) and will be in direct competition with other next gen systems. If people are buying a system this holiday they will have a choice. If PS4 and XBONE suck, they are more likely to spend their money on Nintendo.

I don't expect the Wii U to get a price cut until mario kart, but yes it really needs one. Next gen systems will need them eventually too, but not this holiday.



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brute on 18 August 2013

I'd like to add something, if Ps4 somehow doesn't launch in Japan this year, then I think that XBOne will outsell it for the year, but this is a big IF.



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KBG29 on 18 August 2013

Shipped

Americas 2,000,000
Europe 2,500,000
Asia 1,000,000
Total 5,500,000

From what i've read Sony will produce 500k this month, and ramp up to over a million by September. I think 5.5M is the max amount they could produce and ship buy the end of 2013, from there its a matter of how well recieved the system is. I think they could easly sell 1.5 to 2 million units launch week (October 26th). Then have million selling weeks on Black friday, and the last week up to Christmas. 

I belive the one thing that is certaint is PS4 will sell more than a million units in October, Novermber, and December.



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POE on 18 August 2013



BHR-3 on 18 August 2013

iz possible that it will be the number 1 console by years end for that gen if theres enough stock and has early release but i dont think it will be 6-7m sold

pretty good prediction that will most likely be true or close enough

but i dont think that the perdition is bold or meaningful everyone already knows that the ps4 will be the number 1 console of next gen. a better prediction and one that would garner more replies and interest is if the PS4 can outsell X1 in its home turf NA in the near future or even by this years end



                                                             

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archbrix on 18 August 2013
Piernik said:

In the last two months of 2001 Sony sold 3.000.000 of PS2. And now the market is bigger.
They could easly sell 6 millions worldwide from October 1st.

Comparing the PS4's launch situation to the PS2's is erroneous.

- The PS2 didn't have last gen competition as strong as PS360.

- The PS2 had DVD playback as a selling point, which was a big deal at that time.

- The PS2 had zero competition launching the same holiday.

- The PS2 was a full $100 cheaper.

In short, the PS2 had a lot more hype regarding people willing to upgrade immediately at launch; Sega and Nintendo had just been massively bested in sales by Sony in the previous gen, and Microsoft was a brand new player in the gen starting, so Sony was poised as the safe bet from the get-go.

In order for the PS4 to "easily" sell that many units it would need the hype equivalent of the PS2 or the Wii from everybody, not just the core fans on forums.



RazorDragon on 18 August 2013
Train wreck said:
RazorDragon said:

No. I believe WiiU will start selling much more after the big first-party games are released, and that PS4 will have a big drop in sales after the first month, like every current gen system released.

Which big Nintendo first party titles are you talking about?  Mario and Sonic winter olympics, Donkey Kong Country TF, Mario 3DW, Wii Fit and Zelda STILL do not have concrete release dates in the US, so you are going to have to ride on the backs of W101 and Sonic (which will do better on the 3DS). If the PS4 is releasing in late october, its first month is going to be black friday and its second month christmas, really dude?


Really. I'm quite sure one of the big name games will be released at least by the end of 2013, and that should give Wii U the edge it needs to stay in the top, sales-wise, against the PS4. Christmas is after November, which would be the second month of the PS4 if it releases in October, so yeah, I expect a big sales drop in it's second month. People will buy PS3's, 360's and 3DS's during Black Friday, PS4's price will matter in that case, trust me.



Incubi on 18 August 2013
Train wreck said:
Zero999 said:
Train wreck said:

I have faith in you Leo J. The wii u currently stands 3.61 million as of June 2013, July was the worst month of sales for the Wii U in the US, so the rest of the world fared even worse. Games such as Pikmin 3 have proved to be little in the way of a system seller, multiplatform 3rd party games will be non starters, W101 has a shipment number of 40k in Japan for its launch week, Zelda Wind Waker, one of the major games for the Wii U this season doesn't even have a concrete release date in NA (push to October from Sept is all we know), and its major titles are slated for the last 6 weeks of the year. During Holiday 2003 the 21 million selling gamecube had a shipment of 3.50 million with a price of $149 and about 5 core nintendo titles (and a better 3rd party lineup) including the aforementioned Wind Waker. Does anyone really see Nintendo pushing 3.5 million consoles between October and December?

The very best possible scenario for Nintendo between 7.5-8.25 million total at the end of 2013
My realistic number is between 6.5 million and 7.25million
PS3 with october release worldwide? who knows i can see it reaching 5-6 million based on the west alone if given 10 weeks, if not, ~4

bolded: you meant GAME, in singular right? and pikmin proved to be a small system seller in japan. and the results for US sales aren't out yet.

in your post,you're just overly diminishing every good aspect that you can.

July NPD pegs Wii U sales at ~29k for the month of July and yes GAMES, the extremely poor showing of Game and Wario would lead me to question its existence also.

You know. I'd have taken Zero999's bet of 10mill by dec 31 2013 as a nobrainer if it was'nt for the fact that Nintedogs+cats, new Brain Training games and the like have been unable to lit up the charts like their DS predecessors. 

Knowing Wii Fit U and Wii Party U both release this fall alongside traditional games should for all intents and purpouses make WiiU sales explode to the stratosphere, right? Well, I'm not so sure anymore. And for good reason.