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Forums - Sales Discussion - LEO-J prediction: IF PS4 launches in OCTOBER, PS4 WILL GO TO #1 BY THE END OF 2013

i don't think Sony has enough supply for this to happen ส้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้้ :P



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gigantor21 said:
So you think it's going to sell over 100 million units in 2 and a half months? :p

Seriously, though, I think the only thing that can stop the PS4 from leading is supply issues. Don't know about 6-7 million before New Years, though...

wii u, not wii. it still doesn't make sense though.



leo-j said:
Sony did say they expect to out ship any one of their console launches to date......

I think this will be the most successful console launch in history

I think too.

Supply could be totally different than in past generations. Much more than we are used to and much more we can imagine.

We have been surprised in the past by paradigm change that took everyone by surprise.

You remember in the past where it was a common belief that mass market price for a console was $200? That paradigm totally changed in current gen.

In the past people couldn't imagine a hardware addon could sell in the 10s of millions. People predicted 1 or maximum 2 million for Kinect in its first Holiday back in 2010, and bam, it shipped 8 million (and sold 7 million).

In the past the experts argued that a console doesn't need a lot of RAM, that the PS4 would probably have 2GB or maximum 4GB if you really stretched the imagination. But here we are with 8GB.

At their peak the PS3 and X360 sold 6-7 million in just one Holiday season (Nov + Dec), so the demand is certainly there.



Train wreck said:
Zero999 said:
JoeTheBro said:

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

I made a prediction a while ago. 10M total sales for wii u by the end of 2013. but I leave a 1M margin of error.

10 million? um the Wii U would have to average ~250k/week from July 1 to December 31 to reach that number, we are almost at september and i dont think the Wii U has sold 250K in that time frame.

I keep hearing this "it has to average x units". it will sell great during the holydays and sell well before it. what's the point of pointing the average number?



An october launch is just dominance, that would one up everyone, I doubt microsoft would launch in October



 

mM
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Zero999 said:
gigantor21 said:
So you think it's going to sell over 100 million units in 2 and a half months? :p

Seriously, though, I think the only thing that can stop the PS4 from leading is supply issues. Don't know about 6-7 million before New Years, though...

wii u, not wii. it still doesn't make sense though.

LOL I know. I was just kidding. :p



Have some time to kill? Read my shitty games blog. http://www.pixlbit.com/blogs/586/gigantor21

:D

eFKac said:
JoeTheBro said:
Zero999 said:

first, what the other guy was saying was exactly what the topic was about.

second, I got tired of repeating it but what the wii u sold so far in 2013 is nor relevant for the purpose of predictions. it sold like shit because it had almost no releases until recently with pikmin 3. and no, the 2013 lineup is leps and bounds above it's launch lineup. at launch it had 3 exclusives + a bunch of multis that were mostly late ports. in 2013 it has the multis releasing at the correct time and more than double the exclusives. those exclusives range from huge sellers to almost certain million sellers.

So do you have a wii u prediction for end of year? If it's crazy enough I'll make a bet against it.

Too late!!! I had already bet against his crazy prediction :D

Lucky. The PS4 and XBONE would have to flop right out of the gate to make that even possible. Combined with a price cut of $100 and it's still unlikely though.



Zero999 said:
Train wreck said:

I have faith in you Leo J. The wii u currently stands 3.61 million as of June 2013, July was the worst month of sales for the Wii U in the US, so the rest of the world fared even worse. Games such as Pikmin 3 have proved to be little in the way of a system seller, multiplatform 3rd party games will be non starters, W101 has a shipment number of 40k in Japan for its launch week, Zelda Wind Waker, one of the major games for the Wii U this season doesn't even have a concrete release date in NA (push to October from Sept is all we know), and its major titles are slated for the last 6 weeks of the year. During Holiday 2003 the 21 million selling gamecube had a shipment of 3.50 million with a price of $149 and about 5 core nintendo titles (and a better 3rd party lineup) including the aforementioned Wind Waker. Does anyone really see Nintendo pushing 3.5 million consoles between October and December?

The very best possible scenario for Nintendo between 7.5-8.25 million total at the end of 2013
My realistic number is between 6.5 million and 7.25million
PS3 with october release worldwide? who knows i can see it reaching 5-6 million based on the west alone if given 10 weeks, if not, ~4

bolded: you meant GAME, in singular right? and pikmin proved to be a small system seller in japan. and the results for US sales aren't out yet.

in your post,you're just overly diminishing every good aspect that you can.

July NPD pegs Wii U sales at ~29k for the month of July and yes GAMES, the extremely poor showing of Game and Wario would lead me to question its existence also.



Train wreck said

10 million? um the Wii U would have to average ~250k/week from July 1 to December 31 to reach that number, we are almost at september and i dont think the Wii U has sold 250K in that time frame.

True, and it's unlikely. But lets flip it on it's head. Lets say the Wii U hits 7mil by the end of the year. The PS4 would have to sell 800k a week to do that, with another system launching and major exclusives on the other systems? Surely you can't expect it to be near that figure, from a supply view alone.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Patently insane.



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