I agree with you both in a way. Yes, the crowd is still playing, as Just Dance proves. Yes, they will not switch until they see the added value of owning a WiiU. Just Dance didn't offer that, as it was also available on Wii. WiiFitU is a bit stronger, as it is not available on Wii, but I see many pass, because they already have a WiiFit, and I can't see at the moment additional 'must have'-features. Maybe the extra hardware for measuring jogging-efforts and the off-tv-play. I really don't know how strong a pull that is. Also the number of games. On Wii they have multiple games of different genres: WiiSports(Resort), WiiPlay, Mario Kart Wii, Just Dance, Zumba Fitness, WiiFit, WiiParty, ... On WiiU it is so far Just Dance and maybe Nintendoland. WiiFitU and WiiPartyU add to the mix and add value to the WiiU-package, but Mario Kart comes only later and the strongest system-seller was WiiSports - and that is completely missing on WiiU. So I say the two games will convert some of the casual crowd to the WiiU, lets say 1/4 or 1/3. Nintendo needs to release WiiSportsU to get the number above 1/2. Or a completely new game, that is very interesting.

Wii Fit U's preorders are in the top 40. Let that sink in for a second. I hope Wii Fit U is successful. It's a game that is good at what it does and satisfies it's target audience and unlike some "hardcore" gamers, I'm willing to share my gaming hobby with any demographic. And the 3DS/Wii U aren't "hardcore" consoles. They are consoles that can offer appeal to a "hardcore" and "casual" and anything in between. Casuals gamers aren't lesser gamers and there's no reason we can't share a space. I applaud successful attempts like Wii Fit, Wii Sports, and Wii Party to expose a demographic to high quality games who otherwise wouldn't be interested. And the sales show that they want to be paid attention to. Keep it up Nintendo. Keep being E for Everyone.

Yes BUT not hardly as many as the Wii fit did. I think the numbers will be surprisingly low unless bundled of course.

Nope. Just like Guitar Hero, these IP are headed to the casual gaming graveyard -- Nintendogs + cats is doing nowhere close to the same numbers as Nintendogs on DS and Brain Training on 3DS is an outright flop, so it shows Nintendo isn't immune. The first Brain Training on the DS just 7-8 years ago sold 20+ million worldwide ... the 3DS one is going to struggle to sell 200,000 worldwide ... let that sink in for a minute.

Casual gamers are a different breed from core gamers. Part of what they like is the "trendiness" of something new. That's a big part of the entire equation, once something isn't "shiny & new" anymore, they lose interest.

It isn't like core gamers where you can take a franchise like Mario or Street Fighter or Halo or Zelda and make new installments for 10, 20+ years and people keep coming back.

Just for the record too, I think this year will be the year you see a giant collapse in Just Dance's sales. These things usually have a peak period of about 2-4 years, then it goes south really quick.

Yet Just Dance on WiiU did minor numbers didn't it? That was considered one of the top casual wii franchises

To some degree yes but there's only so much these games can do.

Think of a gaming console as a musical instrument and the software as the song that instrument is playing. The choice of your musical instrument will influence the songs you play on it. You *can* play Lord of the Rings on a guitar but why would you? It's better played on a violin. The same way you *can* play Wii Fit on the Wii U - but why would you? It was obviously made for complex gaming and "core" gamers (just look at the gamepad, it's the most complex controller out there).

The Wii was so successful because the hardware and software told a very harmonious message: Simple hardware, simple software. The instrument fit the songs that were played on it. The Wii U on the other hand is a mess: The hardware screams "Core gaming! Core gaming!" in your face but Nintendo pumps out stuff like Nintendoland, Wii Party, Wario Ware, etc.

The same thing happened to the 3DS: It launched with Nintendogs and that game flopped. So did people lose interest in pet simulators? Hell, no! But the software and the hardware gave consumers mixed messages. The hardware said: "I'm for the core gamer!" The software said: "I'm for 10 year old school girls!" (which is not an insult at all, 10 year old girls are just another market). It's like letting Slipknot compose the new Teletubbies theme song or the Republican Party using Lady Gaga as their public face! Same with the Wii U: They made a deluxe bundle specifically aimed at the core gamers... and then they put Nintendoland into it! And the version aimed at the more price sensitive market segments came without a game. It's like Nintendo is suffering from dissociative identity disorder: They keep screaming "we're hardcore!" (which is stupid because whenever they do that it threatens to kill the company) but they keep on producing Mario and Pokémon games (which is good!) At the same time they refuse to release the next Wii Sports and keep on giving low selling titles high production values and vice versa.

There may be some issue with the message, but the fact is causal trends have a limited life cycle.

Guitar Hero, Brain Training, Nintendogs, were monster sellers a few years ago, but today they're niche games.

Cell phones have honestly taken the lead in this area of casual gaming trends -- Angry Birds, Plants Vs. Zombies, Minecraft, Candy Crush Saga, etc. are the real heirs to the casual craze nowadays, that's where that audience migrated to.

These little companies beat Nintendo to the punch, Nintendo needed to get to something like Minecraft first, not trying to recycle an old formula like Wii Fit.

That's the name of the game with casuals -- finding the next big fad/craze before someone else does. The best thing Nintendo could do IMO rather relying on sequels to casual games that were hot 5-8 years ago now is to rather finance a ton of new projects from small indie houses. Maybe you get lucky and one of them pans out and becomes the next big franchise. 

Why would someone buy a $350 WiiU + WiiFitU when they can just as easily spend $100 on a Wii and get WiiFit?

People are overestimating a WiiFitU. Nintendo needs to move on to some new ideas to get the WiiU moving.

Where I struggle to understand the concept of Wii Fit U selling mega numbers like the original is this: what will Wii Fit U offer thats significantly different from Wii Fit that is already owned by millions of people? What can Nintendo add that makes it worth buying a whole new console for and a new peripheral that will inevitably cost over $100 in itself?

Of all games on the Wii, Wii Fit U is a game that benefits the least from HD graphics. So what else will the Wii U add to make the game a must buy (as in, be so much better than the original that consumers will buy a Wii U and Wii Fit U to use/play like the original did)? I can imagine that the balance board will be improved, maybe have some hand weights or something to go along with it, but fundamentally I'm not seeing how Nintendo can improve the experience enough to get people to buy it a second time. Brain Training failed in part because it didn't really add anything that the previous one didn't have, so when the 3DS version came out it was an old experience not worth the price of re-admission (yes, mllions buy CoD each year, I'm at a loss to explain that either).

Happy to be proven wrong, thats just my gut feel that this hope that Wii Fit U (and Wii Party U) will magically recapture the 'casual' gamer is misplaced. Nintendo will have to come up with something truly new to bring them back.

From what we've seen, no.

Wii party U looks to have even less apeal then Nintendo land, and wii fit U currently is just wii fit but you can use the gamepad as a screen.

A lot of people have compared it to the 3DS and I think its fair, the casual audience need something new to grab them. The fitness and brain training fads are dying, I actually think Micorosoft is in the best position to win over the casuals with Kinect 2, which looks to amaze people based on the tech demos. The price tag is a problem but at least it not $599 lol