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Forums - Nintendo - Do you still believe the 3DS will not make it to 20 million units sold this year?

 

Sales?

17 million 32 22.54%
 
18 million 21 14.79%
 
19 million 7 4.93%
 
20-22 million 31 21.83%
 
22 million or more 39 27.46%
 
Other ( post below) 11 7.75%
 
Total:141
Serious_frusting said:
No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.


http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2010&end_year=2013&console=3DS

Take a look at the last 5 months sales numbers.  It's not that ridiculous.  It really depends on how effective the huge titles that are releasing within these remaining months will have on the hardware sales.  I personally think that the 3DS can easily pass 5m sales in December alone.  Also, October should be a pretty big month for the 3DS, same for November with One Piece in Japan and Zelda for Europe and North America.  With all these titles, it would also be a good incentive for holiday sales.  Just saying it's not that bad.



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HikenNoAce said:



zorg1000 said:

If ur not going to use this sites numbers then what the fuck are you doing here? This whole discussion Iis talking about sales, so shipment numbers are irrelevent.




So, everyone who's here is here to talk about vgchartz numbers?
And why would use vgchartz numbers when you have official numbers? Don't be mad just because you made a fool of yourself.




your the one making a fool of yourself lol. There has been a number of times you been proved wrong, this is no different. Your mixing up shipped numbers vs sales, think about it 3ds was selling bad right in the beginning? your numbers put at that time high cuz it was SHIPPED! Thats all end of discussion. If you bring facts to the table, make sure you kno wat they are before making a statement. If you think VGCharts has 3DS overtracked by almost 3mil, then i cant help you.



spurgeonryan said:
Serious_frusting said:
No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.


So what are you willing to say? Much less or a lot less?

I dont see it getting by 20m at all. Its gonna be far behind that. I aint going to make a prediction yet because I have not calculated the numbers. Off of my head i would say 14m. I aint really looked at the numbers to make a yearly prediction myself. From the info i know i would say 14-15m. If things work out good.



Nobody's perfect. I aint nobody!!!

Killzone 2. its not a fps. it a FIRST PERSON WAR SIMULATOR!!!! ..The true PLAYSTATION 3 launch date and market dominations is SEP 1st

Serious_frusting said:
No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.

POH-KAY-MON

That is what people are thinking.

Whatever the DS did at its peak, I don't care. We are talking about a simultaneous global release of a new Pokémon generation. That has never happened before. Put it right at the start of the Holiday season, precede it with a brand new Monster Hunter game in Japan, and you have a recipe for all kinds of success.



HikenNoAce said:
zorg1000 said:

If ur not going to use this sites numbers then what the fuck are you doing here? This whole discussion Iis talking about sales, so shipment numbers are irrelevent.

So, everyone who's here is here to talk about vgchartz numbers?

And why would use vgchartz numbers when you have official numbers? Don't be mad just because you made a fool of yourself.

We do not have official numbers, we have shipment numbers which in no way tells us how many were actually sold. U have used vgchartz numbers on multiple occasions to prove a point, now that it doesnt suit ur needs ur going to claim vgchartz numbers dont count because its just estimates.

The most likely reason why the shipment numbers are so low is that it sold less than expected last holiday and resulted in overshipping. In NA+EU, Paper Mario was the only big title last holiday and there were great DS deals on black friday, this caused 3DS sales to undeperform in the west in holiday 2012. There was no need to ship a ton of units to begin this year since they had so many still on shelves.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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the_dengle said:
Serious_frusting said:
No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.

POH-KAY-MON

That is what people are thinking.

Whatever the DS did at its peak, I don't care. We are talking about a simultaneous global release of a new Pokémon generation. That has never happened before. Put it right at the start of the Holiday season, precede it with a brand new Monster Hunter game in Japan, and you have a recipe for all kinds of success.


Like i said i aint researched all the facts and stuff but general logic told me no. I will make a proper prediction latter today when i come back home. I dont really have time to mold over everything at the moment but i really doubt the 3DS can get an extra 7 million on top of what it did in the same period last year. Hey, i would not mind being proven wrong, its a good handheld.



Nobody's perfect. I aint nobody!!!

Killzone 2. its not a fps. it a FIRST PERSON WAR SIMULATOR!!!! ..The true PLAYSTATION 3 launch date and market dominations is SEP 1st

Serious_frusting said:
spurgeonryan said:
Serious_frusting said:
No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.


So what are you willing to say? Much less or a lot less?

I dont see it getting by 20m at all. Its gonna be far behind that. I aint going to make a prediction yet because I have not calculated the numbers. Off of my head i would say 14m. I aint really looked at the numbers to make a yearly prediction myself. From the info i know i would say 14-15m. If things work out good.



so 15mil is your maximum?



Serious_frusting said:
spurgeonryan said:
Serious_frusting said:
No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.


So what are you willing to say? Much less or a lot less?

I dont see it getting by 20m at all. Its gonna be far behind that. I aint going to make a prediction yet because I have not calculated the numbers. Off of my head i would say 14m. I aint really looked at the numbers to make a yearly prediction myself. From the info i know i would say 14-15m. If things work out good.


I would say 14-15m would be playing it safe.  Easily 4-6m in December.  If we go with 4m in December, 2m in November, that's already 6m.  11.2m  October should at least get 700k sales for pokemon and Monster Hunter 4 (and I would say 700k is undershooting the sales majorly for October).  You now are at nearly 12m.  You still have August and September.  500k each, that's 13m.  Do you really think that 1-2m over pretty much the minimum logical answer is "If things work out good"?  I think you should at least revise 2m higher.



zorg1000 said:
HikenNoAce said:
zorg1000 said:

If ur not going to use this sites numbers then what the fuck are you doing here? This whole discussion Iis talking about sales, so shipment numbers are irrelevent.

So, everyone who's here is here to talk about vgchartz numbers?

And why would use vgchartz numbers when you have official numbers? Don't be mad just because you made a fool of yourself.

We do not have official numbers, we have shipment numbers which in no way tells us how many were actually sold. U have used vgchartz numbers on multiple occasions to prove a point, now that it doesnt suit ur needs ur going to claim vgchartz numbers dont count because its just estimates.

The most likely reason why the shipment numbers are so low is that it sold less than expected last holiday and resulted in overshipping. In NA+EU, Paper Mario was the only big title last holiday and there were great DS deals on black friday, this caused 3DS sales to undeperform in the west in holiday 2012. There was no need to ship a ton of units to begin this year since they had so many still on shelves.


I have always used vgchartz when we have no official data.



tbone51 said:

HikenNoAce said:



zorg1000 said:

If ur not going to use this sites numbers then what the fuck are you doing here? This whole discussion Iis talking about sales, so shipment numbers are irrelevent.




So, everyone who's here is here to talk about vgchartz numbers?
And why would use vgchartz numbers when you have official numbers? Don't be mad just because you made a fool of yourself.




your the one making a fool of yourself lol. There has been a number of times you been proved wrong, this is no different. Your mixing up shipped numbers vs sales, think about it 3ds was selling bad right in the beginning? your numbers put at that time high cuz it was SHIPPED! Thats all end of discussion. If you bring facts to the table, make sure you kno wat they are before making a statement. If you think VGCharts has 3DS overtracked by almost 3mil, then i cant help you.

 

Ok man, no sweat - Nintendo is wrong, vgchartz is right. Got it.