Do you still believe the 3DS will not make it to 20 million units sold this year?

Conegamer

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Conegamer on 14 August 2013

I don't see it. But I never saw it. I guess that's why I had this bet, isn't it?

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Conegamer on 14 August 2013

And wow, what happened here?

No one really pointed out the fact that we are using VGC numbers for this, like it or not. Why? Because although they aren't overly reliable, they give us an fairly good feel of how a system is performing (games are another matter), because aside from Japan, we don't even get sold to consumer numbers at all. It's all guesswork, at the end of the day. It's just which guess you believe is more accurate.

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Conegamer on 14 August 2013

spurgeonryan said:

Conegamer said:
I don't see it. But I never saw it. I guess that's why I had this bet, isn't it?

So much happens while you have your regular 3 hour REM sleep. So you still are against the new way of thinking?

...Ive been asleep for 10 hours, but whatever.

And I can't agree with you. If I do, I forefeit my bet right off the bat. So, sorry.

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

HikenNoAce

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HikenNoAce on 14 August 2013

MDMAlliance said:

HikenNoAce said:

MDMAlliance said:

HikenNoAce said:

Official numbers - numbers reported by the console manufacturers, developers or publishers.

Numbers reported by console manufacturers are shipped.
Developers and Publishers (if they aren't the manufacturers) don't report hardware numbers. They wouldn't know.

Those are the only official numbers we will ever get. How many 3DSs were sold to customers in Papua New Guinea or New Caledonia or in the US - there's no way to know what those numbers are. Even NPD numbers are estimates and educated guesses.

In addition to the above, from the publisher's perspective, those shipped numbers are sold numbers. When people say X million of iPhones were sold, it's how many iPhones were shipped.

Shipped =/= Sold. It only counts as sold to the manufacturer.

Also, these "guesses" and "estimates" you refer to have a degree of accuracy to them. It would be too complicated to explain them to you.

Also, when people say X million consoles sold, they DON'T mean shipped unless they are a confused journalist.

People may not mean shipped but those are the numbers that they use. For example:

http://marketingland.com/apple-earnings-beat-expectations-on-solid-iphone-sales-52735

http://au.ign.com/articles/2011/10/27/nintendo-3ds-sales-total-668-million

http://au.gamespot.com/news/playstation-3-sells-70-million-units-worldwide-6400177

People always use shipped numbers because that's all that we have.

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HikenNoAce on 14 August 2013

spurgeonryan said:

HikenNoAce said:

People may not mean shipped but those are the numbers that they use. For example:

http://marketingland.com/apple-earnings-beat-expectations-on-solid-iphone-sales-52735

http://au.ign.com/articles/2011/10/27/nintendo-3ds-sales-total-668-million

http://au.gamespot.com/news/playstation-3-sells-70-million-units-worldwide-6400177

People always use shipped numbers because that's all that we have.

For our 3DS is DS daddy conversation.

DS pushed out about 6.7 in it's third Christmas. November 18-December 30th.

I will not bet my account on it, but I am pretty sure the 3DS will easily handle that.

Even the 4th Christmas the DS was much better, and in late December ( it's last chance for the year) it pushed out over 1 million in sales. I think the 3DS should be able to do that as well.

Maybe but it will never top the DS's third year.

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tbone51 on 14 August 2013

HikenNoAce said:

spurgeonryan said:

HikenNoAce said:

People may not mean shipped but those are the numbers that they use. For example:

http://marketingland.com/apple-earnings-beat-expectations-on-solid-iphone-sales-52735

http://au.ign.com/articles/2011/10/27/nintendo-3ds-sales-total-668-million

http://au.gamespot.com/news/playstation-3-sells-70-million-units-worldwide-6400177

People always use shipped numbers because that's all that we have.

For our 3DS is DS daddy conversation.

DS pushed out about 6.7 in it's third Christmas. November 18-December 30th.

I will not bet my account on it, but I am pretty sure the 3DS will easily handle that.

Even the 4th Christmas the DS was much better, and in late December ( it's last chance for the year) it pushed out over 1 million in sales. I think the 3DS should be able to do that as well.

Maybe but it will never top the DS's third year.

nothing from any other company will either

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MDMAlliance on 14 August 2013

HikenNoAce said:

MDMAlliance said:

HikenNoAce said:
Those are the only official numbers we will ever get. How many 3DSs were sold to customers in Papua New Guinea or New Caledonia or in the US - there's no way to know what those numbers are. Even NPD numbers are estimates and educated guesses.

In addition to the above, from the publisher's perspective, those shipped numbers are sold numbers. When people say X million of iPhones were sold, it's how many iPhones were shipped.

Shipped =/= Sold. It only counts as sold to the manufacturer.

Also, these "guesses" and "estimates" you refer to have a degree of accuracy to them. It would be too complicated to explain them to you.

Also, when people say X million consoles sold, they DON'T mean shipped unless they are a confused journalist.

People may not mean shipped but those are the numbers that they use. For example:

http://marketingland.com/apple-earnings-beat-expectations-on-solid-iphone-sales-52735

http://au.ign.com/articles/2011/10/27/nintendo-3ds-sales-total-668-million

http://au.gamespot.com/news/playstation-3-sells-70-million-units-worldwide-6400177

People always use shipped numbers because that's all that we have.

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TruckOSaurus on 14 August 2013

This debate has gone on long enough.

Here's the facts:

Shipped numbers:

2.64M from January to June 2013 according to Nintendo

Sold numbers:

Official sources:

Japan: 1.94M from January 1st to August11th according to Media Create

US : 225,000 - June
More than 114,000 - May
Between 103,000 and 130,000 - April
230,000 - March
191,000 - February
Between 126,000 and 149,000 - January
So at least 0.99M sold

Europe: Unknown

VGChartz (29 dec. 2012 to June 30th 2013)

Japan: 1,95M sold

US: 1,11M sold

Europe: 1,08M sold

So, in short:

If you're talking about sold to retailers, you have to rely on the 2.64M figure.
if you're talking about sold to consumers, you have to acknowledge that at least 2.93M units were sold up June 30th.

Now about VGC numbers, here's what we know:

They are 0.5% off MediaCreate for Japan numbers
They are 12,15% off NPD for the US

----------------------------------------- This ends the facts section -----------------------------------------

So VGC numbers are far from accurate but they aren't totally off either so assuming 0.95M - 1M units sold for Europe up to June 30th is reasonable estimate.

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