Pokemon Ruby & Sapphire was released in 2002 for GBA. GBA shipped 15,7 million that year. The year following this, shipments increased to 17,6 million.
Pokemon Diamond & Pearl released on DS in 2006. Nintendo DS shipped 23,6 million units that year. The year following this, shipments increased to a ridiculous 30,3 million.

I believe 3DS is gonna go somewhere in between GBA and DS. So, i'm gonna guess 3DS ships 19 mill this year, because of the combined number of existing big games allready released, MH4, and the return of a ALTTP-like fast paced action Zelda.

I think it's pretty up in the air.  You still have a chance.

What makes you say that?  Did you watch the video?  It is a 3rd person hunter game (akin the Monster Hunter).  It has 4-player (online?) mode.  This game has the potential to be huge.

If ur not going to use this sites numbers then what the fuck are you doing here? This whole discussion Iis talking about sales, so shipment numbers are irrelevent.

With Pokemon coming out? Why not, sure it could.

I'm actually less confident in that achievement now than I was six months ago. Japanese 3DS hardware sales are way down from the the same time last year -- roughly 240k, 360k, 380k sold in May, June, July 2012, as opposed to 210k, 210k, 295k the same months this year. That's not going to change soon, as the very end of July 2012 is when the one-two punch of the XL and NSMB2 released in Japan, driving strong sales through August (400k) and September (330k). The 3DS doesn't have anything comparable this year. It's hurting for Monster Hunter 4, still over a month away. Even then, the console has had some major releases the past few months, and has experienced declining sales in spite of them. It's not a sure thing that MH and Pokémon will propel it to sustained sales greater than last Holiday -- though I believe they will.

The West is a different story. In America, the 3DS sold 120k/165k/120k last May/June/July; this year, it sold 135k/255k/155k. Europe 2012: 125k/170k/165k; Europe 2013: 150k/260k/170k. Still, the releases of the XL and NSMB2 last year caused a sales spike, and nothing is coming in the same timeframe this year that could have a similar effect. Beating last Holiday will be a cakewalk with Pokémon behind it, but will that be enough?

Key sales comparisons to watch:

Global August & September YOY -- can the 3DS keep up with its own remodel- and NSMB-fueled sales spike last year?

Japanese September-December YOY -- will Monster Hunter 4 and Pokémon X & Y put the wind back in the 3DS's sails this fall? Can it sustain the boost it receives to beat last year's Holiday sales?

Western September-December YOY -- just how high can the 3DS get with the newest generation of Pokémon behind it? Will the first new Zelda title for 3DS provide a substantial enough November/Black Friday boost to really knock it out of the park this December?

The really exciting part is a little ways away, but things are heating up. 20 mil is hardly a sure thing, but it's not impossible. This is going to be fun.

I think the other issue is the new iPad, new iPhone, and iPad mini retina are apparently all launching this fall season. That's going to be on the top of a lot of kids' wishlists for Christmas gifts. 3DS simply has it much tougher than the DS did.

Lots of kids are getting these items (or simply using their parents) instead of the traditional gaming handheld from a young age.

It's pretty much entirely why the 3DS probably will never be able to top 20 million shipments in a year, whereas both the GBA and DS did that, the DS even crushed 30 mill for a couple of years (amazing).

Tablet/phone market has definitely shrunk the 3DS market and basically killed Sony's handheld market entirely. In a way I think Nintendo has to push harder each year to prevent year over year declines against the eroding effect of smart devices. To sell 15 million 3DS' today, they have to work much harder than it was to sell 15-20 million DS' 4 years ago.

No chance in hell. The 3DS is at 5.2m for the year so far. It has 5 months to get 14.8m extra sales.

The 3ds would have to average over 700k per week for it to even think about reaching 20m for the year. The DS at its peak didnt do them kind of numbers. HINT (DS has two 30m years back to back.)

I really do wonder what people are thinking when they make these kind of predictions.

So, everyone who's here is here to talk about vgchartz numbers?

And why would use vgchartz numbers when you have official numbers? Don't be mad just because you made a fool of yourself.

Ah, it reminds me of Christmas 2011. My Aunt & Uncle bought a new iPod Touch for my cousin -- he was about 8 then. It was all about Angry Birds that year.

The thing broke within the week, and the next time I saw him he was sporting a brand new 3DS with Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land.

I hope I never forget this story.