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Forums - Nintendo - Pokemon X/Y Has A Possibility To Be 1 Of The Best In The Franchise! Can It Make Up To 20Million Lifetime?

tbone51 on 14 August 2013
Screamapillar said:
tbone51 said:
Screamapillar said:
20 million for a 3DS game? lol.

I'm not saying "no"... I'm just saying, let's be realistic.

3DS has been out for two and a half years, or to put another way, is roughly 30% through it's lifespan already, and the top-selling game so far (3D Land) hasn't hit 9 million yet.

I suppose we'll be able to paint a better picture for Pokemon X/Y as we look at how much sales spike over the Thanksgiving and Christmas period.



realistic, yeah of course if your only looking at userbase, but time and time again can prove that userbase doesnt mean everything! Pokemon Sapphire/Ruby had 16mil on a user base of 80mil right(GBA)? while the next gen game D/P had 18mil on a user base that was almost double that of GBA! 3DS wont sell as high as DS but to say pokemon wont hit 20mil base cuz of 3DS? Dont forget there are alot of people buying 3DS's just for this game! Also this game has many elements evolving and changing and there is so much hype behind the game, Like i pointed out before this game aint going lower than 16mil. Also to prove a point who would of thought MKWii sell over 30mil+ right when no game on ps2 sold over 20mil!!!! Differene being PS2>>>>>>Wii in userbase!

Right, but in order for your assumption to be correct, 2/3 of the entire 3DS install base would have to buy the game.  And it's highly unlikely that 2/3 of all current 3DS owners are Pokemon fans.  I think the D/P figure you mentioned of 18 mil shows the ceiling for a Pokemon game's market penetration.

We'll see...



Why you say 2/3 of the install base? its lifetime, not day 1 for 20mil pokemon games to be sold (3ds user base now is almost 33mil but by years end will be at least 41mil and following year at LEAST 52mil - 54mil). and to be honest with you i think 3ds will have at least 65mil-70mil by end of 2015, so user base is much less than 1/3! Anyway we'll see! lets hope the game exceeds :p



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NintendoPie on 14 August 2013

It definitely won't be the best in the series, because Sapphire already has that place, but it could be good.

I don't see it pulling in more than 19 Million, though.



tbone51 on 14 August 2013
NintendoPie said:

It definitely won't be the best in the series, because Sapphire already has that place, but it could be good.

I don't see it pulling in more than 19 Million, though.



wattt? This gen has so much to offer, as i like hoenn more than sinnoh and unova i have to say this new kalos region tops it easy :p (you must be a huge fan of gen 3 to say that). Anyway the game looks good, not saying it will have 20mil cuz of now i see it doing around 18-18.5mil, but it has a very good chance of succeeding it :0



VGPolyglot on 14 August 2013

It could, however with the rise of digital sales it may not make it.



NintendoPie on 14 August 2013
tbone51 said:



wattt? This gen has so much to offer, as i like hoenn more than sinnoh and unova i have to say this new kalos region tops it easy :p (you must be a huge fan of gen 3 to say that). Anyway the game looks good, not saying it will have 20mil cuz of now i see it doing around 18-18.5mil, but it has a very good chance of succeeding it :0

It's because Hoenn is the best region out of all.

And 18 Million would be fine as well. Didn't Pearl/Diamond make that?



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tbone51 on 14 August 2013
NintendoPie said:
tbone51 said:



wattt? This gen has so much to offer, as i like hoenn more than sinnoh and unova i have to say this new kalos region tops it easy :p (you must be a huge fan of gen 3 to say that). Anyway the game looks good, not saying it will have 20mil cuz of now i see it doing around 18-18.5mil, but it has a very good chance of succeeding it :0

It's because Hoenn is the best region out of all.

And 18 Million would be fine as well. Didn't Pearl/Diamond make that?



yeap, and i see X/Y topping that :P Lets hope it comes true!!!



sales2099 on 14 August 2013

I just hope there are more restrictions/modes for online battling.

a "no legendary allowed" mode would seal the purchase for me IMO.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

tbone51 on 14 August 2013
sales2099 said:
I just hope there are more restrictions/modes for online battling.

a "no legendary allowed" mode would seal the purchase for me IMO.



still get a copy reguardless :0



Nem on 14 August 2013
forethought14 said:
tbone51 said:

good prediction, at least your not low like thers who didn't predict but dont think it will sell over 10mil lifetime. One guy thinks BW2 counts as a new pair game and since that game is almost at 7mil he think x/y will bomb and do between 5-6mil lifetime. (In fact B/W is the 3rd highest in sales of the 5 third versions of pokemon and slowly will pass platinum's 7.5mil!)

Though B/W sold fairly well, the games' install base vs. the DS install base is even smaller than D/P, and BW2 was smaller still. And it will also depend on when the obvious "Z" version would come out, or when the R/S remakes appear, because those will definitely limit the sales possibility. 15-16 million life-time isn't impossible, but more likely than 20 million. The most likely lifetime is somewhere around D/P - B/W numbers. If it could reach those numbers life-time, then the curse of reduction of pokemon buyers per generation may end (that is, unless 3DS somehow surpasses the DS in sales)


There isnt gonna be a Z version. The X and Y are cromossomes not 3D axis. Unless they make up a new cromossome.



tbone51 on 14 August 2013
Nem said:
forethought14 said:
tbone51 said:

good prediction, at least your not low like thers who didn't predict but dont think it will sell over 10mil lifetime. One guy thinks BW2 counts as a new pair game and since that game is almost at 7mil he think x/y will bomb and do between 5-6mil lifetime. (In fact B/W is the 3rd highest in sales of the 5 third versions of pokemon and slowly will pass platinum's 7.5mil!)

Though B/W sold fairly well, the games' install base vs. the DS install base is even smaller than D/P, and BW2 was smaller still. And it will also depend on when the obvious "Z" version would come out, or when the R/S remakes appear, because those will definitely limit the sales possibility. 15-16 million life-time isn't impossible, but more likely than 20 million. The most likely lifetime is somewhere around D/P - B/W numbers. If it could reach those numbers life-time, then the curse of reduction of pokemon buyers per generation may end (that is, unless 3DS somehow surpasses the DS in sales)


There isnt gonna be a Z version. The X and Y are cromossomes not 3D axis. Unless they make up a new cromossome.



actually there is a Z, a dragon i believe! Your right its cuz of DNA much more than Axis, but The legendary pokemon their is suppose to be a third... Its some type of mythology! I have to look it up if you want to kno about it