Screamapillar said:
tbone51 said:
Screamapillar said:
20 million for a 3DS game? lol.
I'm not saying "no"... I'm just saying, let's be realistic.
3DS has been out for two and a half years, or to put another way, is roughly 30% through it's lifespan already, and the top-selling game so far (3D Land) hasn't hit 9 million yet.
I suppose we'll be able to paint a better picture for Pokemon X/Y as we look at how much sales spike over the Thanksgiving and Christmas period. |
realistic, yeah of course if your only looking at userbase, but time and time again can prove that userbase doesnt mean everything! Pokemon Sapphire/Ruby had 16mil on a user base of 80mil right(GBA)? while the next gen game D/P had 18mil on a user base that was almost double that of GBA! 3DS wont sell as high as DS but to say pokemon wont hit 20mil base cuz of 3DS? Dont forget there are alot of people buying 3DS's just for this game! Also this game has many elements evolving and changing and there is so much hype behind the game, Like i pointed out before this game aint going lower than 16mil. Also to prove a point who would of thought MKWii sell over 30mil+ right when no game on ps2 sold over 20mil!!!! Differene being PS2>>>>>>Wii in userbase!
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Right, but in order for your assumption to be correct, 2/3 of the entire 3DS install base would have to buy the game. And it's highly unlikely that 2/3 of all current 3DS owners are Pokemon fans. I think the D/P figure you mentioned of 18 mil shows the ceiling for a Pokemon game's market penetration.
We'll see...
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Why you say 2/3 of the install base? its lifetime, not day 1 for 20mil pokemon games to be sold (3ds user base now is almost 33mil but by years end will be at least 41mil and following year at LEAST 52mil - 54mil). and to be honest with you i think 3ds will have at least 65mil-70mil by end of 2015, so user base is much less than 1/3! Anyway we'll see! lets hope the game exceeds :p
