It's impossible to say before the holiday season. This Christmas will finally tell us if Wii U is a failure or not. We cannot say before, it's impossible.

But I'll go ahead and say wii U will never pass the Vita, or it will be temporary. Lifetime sales of vita will be higher.

It's comfortably ahead launch aligned, so yeah.

This was a pretty interesting way to revisit that old thread, indeed.

It's pretty crazy to think how people were over-shooting Wii-U's success at the beginning. Even if we ignore game droughts which have undoubtedly plagued the system (although would Pikmin 3 & Wii Fit U releasing sooner really boosted it ~ 2m?); the infamous NeoGAF thread about "how can Wii-U fail in Japan?" springs to mind. Their argument was that it was getting 2D Mario; Monster Hunter & Dragon Quest; therefore it was a lock in the region. That didn't turn out so great (I notice Phenom; Soundwave & Chandler using some of that logic in this thread).

I mean, I do understand it if you look at those games in a vacuum; it is quite an impressive lineup. But, they weren't the entries in each series that the console needed (minus Mario I guess; but he had a lot of legwork to do on his own).

I won't make my own prediction, because threads like this always resurface :P

Bodes well for PS4 launch though, seeing similar cockiness ("all hail to the King" with Kaz instead of Iwata photoshopped onto Walter White, right?)

I expected the Wii U to pass Vita sales within a few months as well. Unfortunately many titles got delayed or cancelled like Rayman, Aliens, W101, Wii Fit U and Pikmin 3. There also wasn't marketing at all and Nintendo claims to change that this Christmas.

If Wii U will ever pass Vita sales? Very easily. There's a very good chance it'll happen this year already. Nintendo is about the release Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze, WindWaker HD, Wonderful 101, Sonic Lost Worlds and most importantly...Mario 3D World BEFORE Christmas (!). Those are very strong titles and do NOT underestimate a Mario game. Look what it did with 3DS. Eventually Wii U will pick up more sales than Vita when the new Zelda, Smash Bros and Mario Kart releases. Sony doesn't really have a sales booster themselves like Nintendo. They also lost Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest and third parties aren't interested in Vita. Sony needs third party to sell consoles.

Maybe the holidays if the games being released are well received. Don't forget that holidays account up to half the sales of the hardware (In Wii U's case should be much more considering the piss poor sales up to now).

The Wii U will hit its stride earlier and probably overtake sometime next year. Vita will keep up after that though, and possibly overtake it if it has good legs?

it will pass vita this year, november or december.

I think Wii U will pass Vita by January 20th, 2014. Possibly sooner, but I don't think any later.

It's pretty interesting seeing as how I missed all of those "Wii U Sales Prediction"/"Wii U will drop da bomb" threads. Maybe vanishing from the Chartz wasn't such a bad thing at that time.

However, the OP's prediction of a Vita price-cut is a nice little thing that just shows how much we didn't know at the time.

The original thread was from Oct 2012, when did the delay news come out?