It's really hard to say because the PS3 also holds the number two sales position, selling about a third more units than the 360. This is a solid position that will be hard to displace.

I think the PS4 will consistently outsell the PS3, but after the launch furor it will be only just. With support drying up and moving on to the PS4 this Christmas, the PS3's used game market will hit it's lowest point in summer, and after that PS3 sales will mostly dry up. After next Christmas--barring a significant price drop--the PS3 will basically be spent.

In about the same timeframe, the PS4 will go through it's launch window and start to cool off. The early adopter crowd is not the same crowd looking to buy a late-life PS3, but if the Gaikai service is good and affordable and the PS4 demonstrates consistent support through the summer (which it will) it's possible some late-adopters will skip the PS3 and start adopting the PS4 early.

Basically, after the launch window the PS4 will steadily cool off, but still hold the #2 slot after the 3DS. The Wii U will start winning the #3 to #5 slots from the PS3 and 360 (it just won the #6 slot back from the Wii, and we haven't seen any of it's fall lineup) and the XB1 will drop into the #6 slot.

Actually, the XB1 might wind up in the #7 slot if the Vita's remote play starts to shine brightly. The Vita just overtook the PSP.

It's been 7-8 years now, a lot of people have been waiting for these new systems. And the fact that last gen lasted so long will only make the new systems a more appealing investment. $400-$500 for a device that will have you're gaming needs taken care of for 5-7 years is not that expensive.

Both will start off great.

PS4 will have bigger global legs, but X1 will sell decent on its own, IMO might even overtake WiiU lifetime sales in 2014.

It will probably have a very similar first year to the WiiU. Yes, they will have less game droughts than the WiiU over the first year however Nintendo fans needed a new console more than PS and XBOX fans.

PS fans could easily hold off getting a PS4 for quite a while as the PS3 is still releasing amazing games. The Wii stopped releasing anything worthwhile for ages before the WiiU was released. So I reckon the sales of the PS4 will have a very similar first year to the WiiU.

Pretty much what everyone else is saying. It will have a strong launch, but most people will be playing GTA and CoD on their 360 and PS3s for a while.

I don't think they will take off right away. Ps3 and 360 have both a much stronger lineup for the next months.

Lack of BC on either system could potentially play a factor although we will see how important this feature really is. My guess would be not as important as some would have you believe.

While I used it extensively on the PS3 after launch during the first year, once the second wave of PS3 titles began to hit, it was little more than a convenience. Similarly, I took the opportunity to pick up a bunch of old Xbox games since I never bought one and played those on the XB360 during the first year.

Neither system will sell as poorly as the Wii U in their first year. Call that a prediction if you will.

The difference in software will be that neither MS Studios nor SCE studios will be relied upon soley to provide the primary gaming reasons to buy either console. Third party support will be much better than it has been on the Wii U and that will likely make all the difference.

I'll go out on a limb and say this: Not only will the PS4 and Xbox One suffer a huge drop in sales in 2014, they will be outsold by Xbox 360 and PS3 for at least a year. The fact that there's no backwards compatibility will cement this. 7th gen games actually still look very good to most people.

I see strong sales through about February when launch window passes and sales slack off. We really do not know too much about 2014 line up so hard to say how Spring, Summer and on will go at this point.

I think they will as long as not to many of the hardcore got sick of waiting for the next gen and went and bought a PC rig.

Which I did but I'm still gonna get a PS4 at launch.

But yeah i think theres a massive amount of people now desperate for the next get to start. And with inflation this is the cheapest PlayStation console yet!