Lack of BC on either system could potentially play a factor although we will see how important this feature really is. My guess would be not as important as some would have you believe.
While I used it extensively on the PS3 after launch during the first year, once the second wave of PS3 titles began to hit, it was little more than a convenience. Similarly, I took the opportunity to pick up a bunch of old Xbox games since I never bought one and played those on the XB360 during the first year.
Neither system will sell as poorly as the Wii U in their first year. Call that a prediction if you will.
The difference in software will be that neither MS Studios nor SCE studios will be relied upon soley to provide the primary gaming reasons to buy either console. Third party support will be much better than it has been on the Wii U and that will likely make all the difference.
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