People have different expectations of console Mario compared to handheld Mario. 3D Land fulfills hanheld expectations, 3D World doesn't fulfill console expectations based on what we've seen.

People have different expectations of console Mario compared to handheld Mario. 3D Land fulfills hanheld expectations, 3D World doesn't fulfill console expectations based on what we've seen.

curl-6 said:

I believe that, like NSMBU, 3D World on Wii U will fail to live up to series sales standards, because:

Are we really going to compare a game that launched to an install base of 0 to games that launched to a 10-20 million install base?  Of course it sold less.  We'll see how things turn out lifetime. 

-The "core" will see it as lazy and rehashed due to its modest audiovisual presentation and conservative style compared to the Galaxy games.

Game looks really beautiful.  Vibrant and bold with some neat effects like the shadows of clouds overhead.  Basically Galaxy style in HD with some effects thrown in.

- The "casuals" won't see the a significant difference between it and NSMBU and 3D Land.

Casual =/= someone who took a railroad spike through the head.  The difference between 2D and 3D is really apparent.  So is the addition of coop.

- Both will be put off by Mario fatigue, with this being the 4th Mario platformer in 2 years.

The 2D and 3D gameplay are pretty significantly different, and not everyone owns/has played all 3 of the games.  It will have been about 2 years since the last 3D Mario, and about 3 since the last 3D Mario for consoles.  First 3D Mario with coop for 4 players.  It's also not like the market is flooded with 3D platformers. 

Nintendo is killing its biggest mascot with these safe, unadventurous, and lately over-abundant entries.

You've played the game I assume?  Four player coop is a blast.  Level design is original and fun, and does well to accomodate the series.  I know people are upset because it's not a Galaxy style game, but it's really a lot of fun.  I love me some good local coop.

I predict 3D World will land beteen 4m and 5m lifetime sales. For comparison, the current lowest, Mario Sunshine, sold 6.3m, Mario Galaxy is approaching 11m, Galaxy 2 is at 7m, and Mario 64 sold 11.9m.

Well you're certainly entitled to your opinion.  It will hit at least 3 million within a year, being conservative.  Probably 8 million lifetime minimum.

3D World plays the same as Galaxy 2, and we haven't seen yet the hub world. Nintendo is trying to figure out a way to make people buy more 3D Mario games by putting in 2D mechanics that reminds people of the good old days. I think it fulfills everything the console needs. It has great graphics, and lots of replayability. If the Wii U picks up the pace, I think this game will sell very well just like 3D Land.

It seems to lack the weirdness and creativity that made the Galaxy games so appealing though. It looks predictable and samey, like every other Mario game people have ever played, not something new and exciting that will draw in new or reluctant players.

If NSMBU has taught us anything, it's that Mario is no longer a sure-fire super-seller. Playing it safe and conservative isn't enough anymore.

NSMBU is selling poor because the console is selling poor. This is the main reason why it's not keeping others' pace. The second being it was released on launch and not while there was a 50 million install base.