The more I think of it, the less I'm sure. What do you guys think? More or less? By about how much more or less would you guess at this point in time?

Realistically the total install numbers of the Wii U will be down over the Wii lifetime, but just as well it's a more "hardcore" targeted title that would sell consoles by itself anyways, and the tech leap from the Wii to the Wii U is a much greater one than we saw from the GCN to Wii, and as a result the wow factor should be much greater as well to also positively affect sales.

With a more core focused system you see 3d mario selling better and 2d mario selling worse. This is what happened on 3ds and will repeat on Wiiu.

^ I think people are just burnt out on NSMB more than anything, which isn't something I'd expect to effect a next gen 3D Mario obviously.

Not even close. In terms of Tie-ratio, there's a good chance it will blow it out of the water, but in absolute terms, I don't imagine it will do too much better than the NSMBU.

less. 5mil lifetime

^ You realize Sunshine sold over 5.5 million lifetime don't you? Are you predicting the Wii U will sell even less than the Gamecube?

Less, there aren't nearly enough Wii U consoles in homes to sell 10 Million+ software units. It won't be possible. It'll probably be the best 3D Mario to date but the sales probably wont' beat it. Maybe, who knows. This is just how I see it.

It's a system seller. The Wii U install base now has nothing to do with this game.

Less than Galaxy, more than Sunshine.

I don't see EAD surpassing Galaxy in terms of 3D platforming soon.

Possibly no developer will for at least decade.

hard to say right now I mean who knows what will happen to WiiUs sales in a couple of months with Mario and all the other games coming for it.

I will go with more than Galaxy 2 numbers for now